Playing the numbers

[bigpaul]

(12 December 2012, 12:59)Scythe13 Wrote: How do you know you won't be a part of that 60%? Your odds of survival in that situation are 2 in 5. Better odds that you won't make it.

because i am preparing for it, i have better chances than someone who dosent(sheeple) prepare, depends on the event of course.

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someone who dosent prep will have ZERO chance WTSHTF.

[Skean Dhude]

(12 December 2012, 14:01)bigpaul Wrote: because i am preparing for it, i have better chances than someone who dosent(sheeple) prepare, depends on the event of course.

Not quite true. Each person is in a unique situation, family, location, etc. and thus their chances are different. By preparing you increase your chances of survival. It doesn't mean you will automatically survive. Some situations have a low survival rate.

Prepping isn't a guaranteed cure. Many sheeple who have not prepped will survive while many preppers will not.

[bigpaul]

i cannot agree that people who have not prepped will survive rather than people who have, surely by prepping we INCREASE our chances of surviving, and by not prepping people will DECREASE their chances of surviving, because if not WHAT IS THE POINT?? might as well not bother then?? dont believe that for a heartbeat !!

[Skean Dhude]

BP,

Someone living in a block of flats in Londonstan prepping has a lower chance of survival than someone who lives in a farmhouse in North Wales even if they are not prepping.

You can't add and subtract. By prepping we increase. By not prepping we decrease. Not prepping means we stay in the same position only. To decrease your chances you have to do something else which actually reduces your chances.

People survive all the time and few of them prepare for it.

Your prepping increases your chances. That is the point.

[bigpaul]

(12 December 2012, 14:46)Skean Dhude Wrote: BP,



Your prepping increases your chances. That is the point.

thats was what i was trying to say.

[Skean Dhude]

BP,

I know.

But I was also saying that there are no gaurantees. Prepping does not mean automatic survival.

[bigpaul]

(12 December 2012, 15:29)Skean Dhude Wrote: BP,

I know.

But I was also saying that there are no gaurantees. Prepping does not mean automatic survival.

never thought it did! but its got to even the odds just a teeny weeny bit!

[Skean Dhude]

and that is why we all do it although I suspect it is much more than a teeny weeney bit. Much better than your normal insurance policy.

[Tarrel]

Scythe, when you draw the distinction between planning "on" something happening and planning "for" something happening, do you mean, for example;

Say there's a banking crash. Preparing for it might mean holding some cash to use if the ATMs fail (good idea), but planning on it might mean maxing out your credit cards in the belief you won't have to pay the money back if the banks crash (bad idea)?

What's the old expression; "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst".

[Scythe13]

(12 December 2012, 17:36)Tarrel Wrote: Say there's a banking crash. Preparing for it might mean holding some cash to use if the ATMs fail (good idea), but planning on it might mean maxing out your credit cards in the belief you won't have to pay the money back if the banks crash (bad idea)?

Exactly that! Spot On! That has earned you an extra rep point!

If you spend all day everyday prepping, planning ON an event, then you're planning your life around an event, e.g. bank crash, as you said above. However, if you plan FOR it, you'd have cash on hand and maybe precious metals etc.

That point about 'playing the numbers' is based on the principle that an event is unlikely to change the world. It is possible, so it makes sense to prepare for it. Since it's not hugely likely, it makes sense to enjoy today and not plan your life around an unlikely event "When the ice age hits.......Sorry mate, it's sunny today, and you're missing out on the sun" that kind of thing. If you enjoy prepping for a world changer event, then enjoy yourself, but be realistic and admit it's not guaranteed to happen in your lifetime.....infact it's unlikely to happen in any of our lifetimes. But that 1% chance, means it is worth getting ready for, but not obsessing over.