Playing the numbers

[Scythe13]

Hi Everyone

Time for another hefting post. Go get a cup of coffee ready, bring yourself those slippers and settle into your comfy arm chair, as this will be a long one.

The title of this is Playing the Numbers.

It's a very simple concept. If you have a dice, you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6. Now, lets say you roll the dice 10 times. Odds are, you would have hit each number at least once.

Get how this works? It's a simple system of playing the numbers.

The UK is a damn small area, when looked at on a global scale. Statistically, there's very little chance a huge meteor will hit the UK. Infact, it's much more likely to hit the sea, given that the ocean covers 70% of our planets surface. By way of land masses, Asia is most likely to be hit, being that it is the largest land mass. Yeah, you're seeing how this works. Pretty clever hu?

Okay, lets get more complicated, but more fun too.

There's another boost of Bird-Flu, just as dangerous as the last. What do you do?
Answer.....sod all. There were TENS of THOUSANDS of people infected with bird flu. How many died in the UK? I think it was something like 16. So, statistically, your odds were really fricking good that you'd be okay. Let's say you local area reports 1000 cases of bird flu and nobody is dying. You're risking getting bird flu but you're VERY unlikely to die from it. You're more likely to die in a crash while driving your car to the doctors to get checked out for bird flu.

This one kind of sucks. You are in a plane. There's a man with a bomb on the plane, 9/11 style. Odds are.....you're going to die. So why not just go all hells leather and savagely attack the guy with the bomb?!?!? You're going to die anyway, so why not just get preemptive revenge on him? You could well crash the plane into the sea, and save thousands of lives. Yes you'll be dead, but if the plane crashed into the target football stadium or something like that, you were going to die anyway!!! Do some kind of good to save as many as you can, if you know you're f**ked. Odds of survival.....pretty much zero. Odds of being able to save lives by sitting down and accepting your fate...ZERO. Odds of saving lives by trying your hardest to get the Al-Quieda pick to Allah before he can blow up the bomb....much better than if you sat down and accepted your fate!!! Suck it up, take the bar-steward out.....or die trying. Die as a hero, not as a dog.

The numbers change dramatically according to each scenario.

Odds of a nuclear bomb being dropped......surprisingly low. In human history, only 2 have been used against people. Both to such an extent, that we're in a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) situation. Odds of another nuke being dropped? Very low. There have been numerous previous situations where it could have happened, but MAD stopped that. This is another one of those situations, in Syria. So, even then, the odds of a nuke being deployed.....pretty low.

If you're out shopping, there is a TINY chance you'll be caught up in a bomb situation. Yes some people have been. Highlander being one person that was caught in an explosion situation. But currently, they're uncommon, and are thus unlikely.

Now, here's the real humdinger. I hate it, but I love it, and the thought excited me, but scares me (fear is exciting, so I'm probably excited through fear). The odds of an apocalypse event occurring in our lifetimes is...........so small it's comparable to the size of my gentleman area. TIDDLEY!!!!!
Think about it, in the 10'000 years on earth, there has never been a single event that has wiped out mankind (ignoring Noah and the Ark. But even then, that's 40 days out of 10'000 years!!!). The people that predict the end of the world, so far, have all been wrong. If an event is going to happen, that will truly screw up mankind, what are the odds it will happen in the 80 years you'll be alive for? Or the 40 years you have left? Or the 100 years you have left?
Even though a global shocker style event is the most exciting, and it's a really fun one to get ready for, the genuine likelihood of it happening is so low, it's almost not worth thinking about. But as SD says "If there's a chance it could happen, I owe it to myself and my family to be ready for it." I totally agree, and I'm not against this. It's one of my favourite things to be ready for (just because of the level of excitement it brings). However, let's play the numbers and admit it's unlikely to happen in our lifetimes. Unlikely....yes. Possible.....yes. Probable.....NO.

Civilisations come and go. I believe that will happen again. In my lifetime....it's unlikely. More chance in my kids of their kids lifetimes (I don't have kids, but you know what I mean). The simple logic is, my kids and their kids lifetimes will be longer than mine, so odds are more likely something will happen in their lifetimes than in mine.

It's a very simple system. Like rolling the dice. The likelihood of something happening can increase by circumstances. Like having 2 sides of the dice as the same number. But you still can't guarantee something will happen, other than death and taxes.

Truth be told, there is less than a 1% chance a dirty bomb will go off next time you're out shopping. How many shopping centres have been hit with dirty bombs? How many asteroids have hit earth and totally screwed everything up?

Playing the numbers, if 60% of the population will die in a nuclear war, then odds are pretty good that you'll die. You have a 60% chance of dying, and a 40% chance of surviving. Yes, you may have a nuclear bunker, but how much time do you spend in that bunker in a day? Do you sleep there, work there, and live all your life there? If so, odds are pretty good you'll survive. But if you have a life, friends, family, a normal job, and stuff like that, then odds are that you won't be in your bunker when you need to be. There are 24 hours a day. How many hours do you spend in the bunker? There, that is playing the odds. If you spend more time out of your bunker than in it, then you're more likely to be out of your bunker when you need to be in it.

I'm not saying go and get a bunker and live in it. That would be VERY sad and pathetic.

What I'm saying, is that if we were to play the numbers, and still prepare, then we are covering the less than 1% chance that we owe it to ourselves and loved ones to be ready for.



There is an end to this long painful slog of reading, that I appreciate you doing. It's not too far away.

Don't plan ON something happening. It's not guaranteed, and it's unlikely in our lifetimes. But do plan FOR something happening.

There is a huge difference between the two.

If you are planning on something happening, then you are planning your life around an unlikely event. If your focus is a disastrous tomorrow, then you're unlikely to be enjoying today to it's fullest extent. That's not only unwise, but you're missing out on the wonders of life that are all around us. Some city architecture, city coffee shops, hanging out with city dweller friends, or making new friends, art galleries, museums, parades, CARNIVAL-RIO!!!! Higher paying jobs in the city, and stuff like that.

Prepare FOR something to happen, that is wise, and decent. It's just building your own insurance policy. Clever and correct.

But planning ON something happening......you are more likely to die of old age, than you are to experience an EOTWAWKI event, let alone survive through one.

Playing the numbers show that we owe it to ourselves to be ready IF an event were to happen. But it also shows the folly of living your day to day life getting ready for something that is unlikely (at best) to happen in your lifetime.

Prepare for it, don't live for it.