Playing the numbers

[Scythe13]

Hi Everyone

Time for another hefting post. Go get a cup of coffee ready, bring yourself those slippers and settle into your comfy arm chair, as this will be a long one.

The title of this is Playing the Numbers.

It's a very simple concept. If you have a dice, you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6. Now, lets say you roll the dice 10 times. Odds are, you would have hit each number at least once.

Get how this works? It's a simple system of playing the numbers.

The UK is a damn small area, when looked at on a global scale. Statistically, there's very little chance a huge meteor will hit the UK. Infact, it's much more likely to hit the sea, given that the ocean covers 70% of our planets surface. By way of land masses, Asia is most likely to be hit, being that it is the largest land mass. Yeah, you're seeing how this works. Pretty clever hu?

Okay, lets get more complicated, but more fun too.

There's another boost of Bird-Flu, just as dangerous as the last. What do you do?
Answer.....sod all. There were TENS of THOUSANDS of people infected with bird flu. How many died in the UK? I think it was something like 16. So, statistically, your odds were really fricking good that you'd be okay. Let's say you local area reports 1000 cases of bird flu and nobody is dying. You're risking getting bird flu but you're VERY unlikely to die from it. You're more likely to die in a crash while driving your car to the doctors to get checked out for bird flu.

This one kind of sucks. You are in a plane. There's a man with a bomb on the plane, 9/11 style. Odds are.....you're going to die. So why not just go all hells leather and savagely attack the guy with the bomb?!?!? You're going to die anyway, so why not just get preemptive revenge on him? You could well crash the plane into the sea, and save thousands of lives. Yes you'll be dead, but if the plane crashed into the target football stadium or something like that, you were going to die anyway!!! Do some kind of good to save as many as you can, if you know you're f**ked. Odds of survival.....pretty much zero. Odds of being able to save lives by sitting down and accepting your fate...ZERO. Odds of saving lives by trying your hardest to get the Al-Quieda pick to Allah before he can blow up the bomb....much better than if you sat down and accepted your fate!!! Suck it up, take the bar-steward out.....or die trying. Die as a hero, not as a dog.

The numbers change dramatically according to each scenario.

Odds of a nuclear bomb being dropped......surprisingly low. In human history, only 2 have been used against people. Both to such an extent, that we're in a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) situation. Odds of another nuke being dropped? Very low. There have been numerous previous situations where it could have happened, but MAD stopped that. This is another one of those situations, in Syria. So, even then, the odds of a nuke being deployed.....pretty low.

If you're out shopping, there is a TINY chance you'll be caught up in a bomb situation. Yes some people have been. Highlander being one person that was caught in an explosion situation. But currently, they're uncommon, and are thus unlikely.

Now, here's the real humdinger. I hate it, but I love it, and the thought excited me, but scares me (fear is exciting, so I'm probably excited through fear). The odds of an apocalypse event occurring in our lifetimes is...........so small it's comparable to the size of my gentleman area. TIDDLEY!!!!!
Think about it, in the 10'000 years on earth, there has never been a single event that has wiped out mankind (ignoring Noah and the Ark. But even then, that's 40 days out of 10'000 years!!!). The people that predict the end of the world, so far, have all been wrong. If an event is going to happen, that will truly screw up mankind, what are the odds it will happen in the 80 years you'll be alive for? Or the 40 years you have left? Or the 100 years you have left?
Even though a global shocker style event is the most exciting, and it's a really fun one to get ready for, the genuine likelihood of it happening is so low, it's almost not worth thinking about. But as SD says "If there's a chance it could happen, I owe it to myself and my family to be ready for it." I totally agree, and I'm not against this. It's one of my favourite things to be ready for (just because of the level of excitement it brings). However, let's play the numbers and admit it's unlikely to happen in our lifetimes. Unlikely....yes. Possible.....yes. Probable.....NO.

Civilisations come and go. I believe that will happen again. In my lifetime....it's unlikely. More chance in my kids of their kids lifetimes (I don't have kids, but you know what I mean). The simple logic is, my kids and their kids lifetimes will be longer than mine, so odds are more likely something will happen in their lifetimes than in mine.

It's a very simple system. Like rolling the dice. The likelihood of something happening can increase by circumstances. Like having 2 sides of the dice as the same number. But you still can't guarantee something will happen, other than death and taxes.

Truth be told, there is less than a 1% chance a dirty bomb will go off next time you're out shopping. How many shopping centres have been hit with dirty bombs? How many asteroids have hit earth and totally screwed everything up?

Playing the numbers, if 60% of the population will die in a nuclear war, then odds are pretty good that you'll die. You have a 60% chance of dying, and a 40% chance of surviving. Yes, you may have a nuclear bunker, but how much time do you spend in that bunker in a day? Do you sleep there, work there, and live all your life there? If so, odds are pretty good you'll survive. But if you have a life, friends, family, a normal job, and stuff like that, then odds are that you won't be in your bunker when you need to be. There are 24 hours a day. How many hours do you spend in the bunker? There, that is playing the odds. If you spend more time out of your bunker than in it, then you're more likely to be out of your bunker when you need to be in it.

I'm not saying go and get a bunker and live in it. That would be VERY sad and pathetic.

What I'm saying, is that if we were to play the numbers, and still prepare, then we are covering the less than 1% chance that we owe it to ourselves and loved ones to be ready for.



There is an end to this long painful slog of reading, that I appreciate you doing. It's not too far away.

Don't plan ON something happening. It's not guaranteed, and it's unlikely in our lifetimes. But do plan FOR something happening.

There is a huge difference between the two.

If you are planning on something happening, then you are planning your life around an unlikely event. If your focus is a disastrous tomorrow, then you're unlikely to be enjoying today to it's fullest extent. That's not only unwise, but you're missing out on the wonders of life that are all around us. Some city architecture, city coffee shops, hanging out with city dweller friends, or making new friends, art galleries, museums, parades, CARNIVAL-RIO!!!! Higher paying jobs in the city, and stuff like that.

Prepare FOR something to happen, that is wise, and decent. It's just building your own insurance policy. Clever and correct.

But planning ON something happening......you are more likely to die of old age, than you are to experience an EOTWAWKI event, let alone survive through one.

Playing the numbers show that we owe it to ourselves to be ready IF an event were to happen. But it also shows the folly of living your day to day life getting ready for something that is unlikely (at best) to happen in your lifetime.

Prepare for it, don't live for it.

[Skean Dhude]

Be carefulwith stats.

1 in 9000 doesn't sound likemuch but the odds of winning the lottery are 14 Million to one and people win it almost every week.

The dinosaurs ruled for 160 million years before an asteroid hit, 10 thousand in a life span of billions of years doesn't even merit a mention. If we were wiped out now future historians would likely say dinosaurs 160M years, apes and other life forms 15 K. If you drew the timscale of the planet on your walls, all the way around you would see a thick line for the dinosaurs and we couldn't draw a line thin enough for our reign.

Odds are strange things; (Warning made up figures)
I have 1 in 900 chanceofdying of cancer
1 in 2500 of being in a plane crash
1 in 20000 of being in a terrorist attack
1 in 15000 of dying in police custody
etc.
etc.
According to my calcs there is a good chance I'm not going to die ever.

Odds are simply stats to be used for gambling. We each have differing circumstances. For example if I work in the army in that shit hole Afghanistan what are the odds I will get killed by a terrorist or a citizen of Afghanistan. What are my odds at home working for Asda as a shelf stacker. Strangly the odds are the sameuntil I say what are the odds 'for asoldier' or 'a shelfstacker'

Just be careful with odds. It is for gambling only any we are not gambling with anything.

[Scythe13]

(11 December 2012, 14:49)Skean Dhude Wrote: Be carefulwith stats.

1 in 9000 doesn't sound likemuch but the odds of winning the lottery are 14 Million to one and people win it almost every week.

The dinosaurs ruled for 160 million years before an asteroid hit, 10 thousand in a life span of billions of years doesn't even merit a mention. If we were wiped out now future historians would likely say dinosaurs 160M years, apes and other life forms 15 K. If you drew the timscale of the planet on your walls, all the way around you would see a thick line for the dinosaurs and we couldn't draw a line thin enough for our reign.

Odds are strange things; (Warning made up figures)
I have 1 in 900 chanceofdying of cancer
1 in 2500 of being in a plane crash
1 in 20000 of being in a terrorist attack
1 in 15000 of dying in police custody
etc.
etc.
According to my calcs there is a good chance I'm not going to die ever.

Odds are simply stats to be used for gambling. We each have differing circumstances. For example if I work in the army in that shit hole Afghanistan what are the odds I will get killed by a terrorist or a citizen of Afghanistan. What are my odds at home working for Asda as a shelf stacker. Strangly the odds are the sameuntil I say what are the odds 'for asoldier' or 'a shelfstacker'

Just be careful with odds. It is for gambling only any we are not gambling with anything.

I understand what you're saying, and I don't disagree.

The idea of the post is to show that even though we expect it to happen, don't plan your life around an event happening, because it's unlikely to happen in our lifetime. Not that it won't happen, but it's unlikely to happen. Is it worth prepping for a 1% chance? Of course it is. Is it worth planning your life around a 1% chance? NO.

[bigpaul]

i think it was Winston Churchill who said " there are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

[Wildman]

a day after the bombs in london, i was shopping for pipe goods in a fav shop of mine. when my friend in the shop asked a forien customer to remove his black n white checkerd cloth from round his face. (he didnt understand, but i didnt know this and reacted out of sheer panic) i was behind him in the q, i ripped off the cloth with one hand turning him towards me at the same time. i then cought his chin with a quick, sharp jab and had him against the wall screaming at him to hold his hands up. it was then i realised i had totally over reacted, but i realy believed something bad was gonna happen. i payed him £20 and i payed for his purchases (i'm not that bad) any way that was years ago, and i'm alot more wise as to who the plotters of death really are. the roll of the dice is as real as all the above. ancient peoples would study the roll of the dice to predict alsorts. they must of got the logic from some were.

[Straight Shooter]

stats are one thing chance is another.......a helping human hand on high is totally different

[Highlander]

This is one reason why I hate the title `Domsday Prepper`,... its also why the `none believers` out there tend to take the pi*s out of preppers,... we as `Domsday preppers` are so far off the grid that its almost laughable.

But in all reality, none of us are domsday preppers who are waiting for the one big bang thats going to wipe all humanity of the face of the world,..except us

We are simply preppers nothing more,... we feel its a good bet to be prepared for any emergency that crops up,... if we go back to stats,... then preparing for a flood is a very good bet,...or civil unrest, another reasonable bet

I like to think that I am an emergency prepper, preparing for an emergency that could,.... easily happen, .....which might very well happen,...or is bound to happen at some point in my life

[Wildman]

(11 December 2012, 19:32)Straight Shooter Wrote: stats are one thing chance is another.......a helping human hand on high is totally different

if i had never smoked i would of still done the same thing(if not quicker) how ever, that was a long time ago and my reasons for moving (other than the fear in my friends face) were not the reasons i prep today.

[bigpaul]

(11 December 2012, 21:43)Highlander Wrote: But in all reality, none of us are domsday preppers who are waiting for the one big bang thats going to wipe all humanity of the face of the world,..except us

i am! well maybe not all in one big bang but gradually, and not ALL the population except preppers-just a large proportion of it...say about 60%!!

[Scythe13]

(12 December 2012, 11:51)bigpaul Wrote:

(11 December 2012, 21:43)Highlander Wrote: But in all reality, none of us are domsday preppers who are waiting for the one big bang thats going to wipe all humanity of the face of the world,..except us

i am! well maybe not all in one big bang but gradually, and not ALL the population except preppers-just a large proportion of it...say about 60%!!

How do you know you won't be a part of that 60%? Your odds of survival in that situation are 2 in 5. Better odds that you won't make it.