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Breaking: Massive New Object Moving Toward Earth Now? – Jupiter Struck in September
11 December 2012, 12:53,
#21
RE: Breaking: Massive New Object Moving Toward Earth Now? – Jupiter Struck in September
I really think this will be non-event.

Odds are it will hit the ocean.

I've just done a big post about Playing the Numbers. There is a 70% chance it will hit the ocean (70% of our planets surface is water) and only a 30% chance it will hit land. So, odds are........1 in 3030 that it will hit earth, and then a 3 in 10 chance it will hit land. Which looks more like 1 in 9090 chance it will hit land. The UK is a small part of that land mass. So odds are more like 1 in 50'000 that the UK will be hit.

Non-event. But cool news, none-the-less.
Dissent is the highest form of Patriotism - Thomas Jefferson
Those who sacrifice freedom for security deserve neither - Benjamin Franklin
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13 December 2012, 19:10,
#22
RE: Breaking: Massive New Object Moving Toward Earth Now? – Jupiter Struck in September
according to the guy in the video (and my calculations) its current path will definitely be a miss.
however if it hits into another object hard enough, its course might change and it might hit earth.
question everything or believe anything
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13 December 2012, 19:33, (This post was last modified: 13 December 2012, 19:34 by I-K-E.)
#23
RE: Breaking: Massive New Object Moving Toward Earth Now? – Jupiter Struck in September
(11 December 2012, 12:53)Scythe13 Wrote: I really think this will be non-event.

Odds are it will hit the ocean.

I've just done a big post about Playing the Numbers. There is a 70% chance it will hit the ocean (70% of our planets surface is water) and only a 30% chance it will hit land. So, odds are........1 in 3030 that it will hit earth, and then a 3 in 10 chance it will hit land. Which looks more like 1 in 9090 chance it will hit land. The UK is a small part of that land mass. So odds are more like 1 in 50'000 that the UK will be hit.

Non-event. But cool news, none-the-less.

just to add what would happen if it did hit and ocean, there will be a hell of a lot of displaced water so could lead to massive tides or even tidal waves. Increase in seas temperatures could impact the ecosystem or even alter the gulf stream or other ocean currents and totally change the environmental conditions of some big regions of the planet.

saying that it may need something bigger to do thatBig Grin
big tides could lead to significant flooding too
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13 December 2012, 23:05,
#24
RE: Breaking: Massive New Object Moving Toward Earth Now? – Jupiter Struck in September
Scythe, Everyone including myself, get these odds mixed up.

If it has a 1 in 3030 cjance of hitting earth. then your calc is 9090 for hitting land then that means it is a 21210 chamce of hitting water. Huh. giw can that be so much more? This is the one area of normal maths where everyone gets mixed up.
Skean Dhude
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It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change. - Charles Darwin
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14 December 2012, 15:25,
#25
RE: Breaking: Massive New Object Moving Toward Earth Now? – Jupiter Struck in September
ummmmm think i got it
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