the beginning of the end.

[bigpaul]

surviving collapse: those who are prepared to "go the distance" for the coming collapse stand the best chance of survival, half hearted measures wont work, attempting to hang onto this present lifestyle wont work, a 3 day food supply wont work, wishful thinking wont work. it is very hard for people to realise just how incredibly stupid civilisation has been, building a modern society on finite resources and then failing to accept its finality is just suicidal. the world is overpopulated by billions, never before has this country had the population it has now, because of the huge populations(mostly in the cities) any "die off" will be greater than anything that went before(i.e. The black death). the plans and the decisions have to be made NOW, not just the stocks of food and water, but the tools and the seeds have to be stockpiled now, how are you going to grow any food if you don't have seeds? what about animals? where are you going to get cows or sheep or pigs from? expecting to rely on someone else after "the dust has settled" who has already got their "community" farm up and running and just going up to them and saying "yoohoo-I want to join you" will get you a "F..k off!" at best and at worst a belly full of buckshot!! relying on someone else for your survival-even extended family- is a recipe for disaster. have a think about this also, on breakfast news this morning they said the bumble bee population is dying just as the honey bee's are.......do you know why this should bother us all? cos it has been said that if the bees die out the human race will follow them into extinction about 4 years later!!

[NorthernRaider]

Most urbanites will be made very unwelcome in the food growing areas after TSHTF, but I actually think many of them will not leave the urban areas until its already to late for them IE after they have exhausted all their local supplies, after they have started to weaken and they will then leave along routes already stripped bare and are likely to find themselves being predated on by others as they try and leave. Hunger, Starvation, Cholera, Typhus, E coli, Salmonella etc will thin them out and should those survivors find a place in a rural area in which to start a self reliant erm! Commune they will then need to start learning agriculture from scratch and it will take at least two seasons before they can grow enough food to sustain themselves. That's before we consider the race, creed, colour, social status issues that will also result in much violence. I do now think that a few VERY highly skilled young fit, well educated and determined folks will probably be able to survive and thrive in abandoned urban areas through scavenging, guerrilla gardening, fishing and hunting, but unfortunately few areas of cities are capable of sustaining more than a handful of people.

[bigpaul]

forget all about "survival of the fittest", the ones that survive (and thrive) will be the ones that can ADAPT to the new situation.

[NorthernRaider]

Survival of the fittest my arse, survival of the best prepped, long established and lucky is going to dominate.

[bigpaul]

DEATH RATES: food will be the primary factor in the mortality rates over time, closely followed by lack of water, and disease. if an outbreak of a virus were to occur(influenza for instance)it would kill in its millions, eventual death rates are impossible to calculate in the long term, but a combined total of starvation, disease or exposure will top over 3 BILLION (worldwide) quite easily , at worst there could be a mortality rate in the region of 95-97% of ALL human life(as of today).

[Midnitemo]

you two are sounding a bit smug there..lol , these little agricultural micro fiefdoms are going to need manpower(when the fuel go's) and currency in this new world will be food and board , if people are starving they will try to take your stuff , having the deeds just wont cut it , you will have to work it and defend it for a long time into this very uncertain future , what about renewable power sources?there's been a lot of effort to bring renewable online , i know its a small percentage of the grid right now but it'll continue meaning tptb will still have limited resources and capabilities.

[Rush2112]

kinda sounds like a return to serfdom. perhaps knowing some kind of trade or skill could be beneficial, so your not just general labor. not much value in that.

i think drinking unlean water will be the primary factor in the mortality rates. Even today after a major event, water bourne diseases appear quickly.

[bigpaul]

err...sorry, you sort of lost me there for a mo', you talk of "people taking your stuff" and then in the next breath mention TPTB! I mean which is it? is it WROL(theft and general lawlessness) or is it still "Rule of Law applies"? it'll either be one or the other, I would think the former, but of course we are still back to the question as before: just how far will starving people WALK or indeed be CAPABLE of walking and they wont be able to put up much of a fight against defenders who are well nourished and alert. can we PLEASE get our minds off fighting and looting and get back to the question of how are YOU going to survive? (as per the OP).

[Midnitemo]

I was making the point that there maybe some semblance of government that might survive this meltdown .... and if they do then they wont just sit around with there thumb up there butt's , they will look to expand on there limited powerbase and appropriate land and equipment where they see fit and by force if nescesary , they do it now under the guise of compulsory purchase orders so they sure as eggs is eggs will comandeer stuff then....so you're lovely flourishing farm may be taken from you by TPTB if you're to succesful , but in the early stages you may flourish whilst left alone provided you can hang onto it.

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Its not personal you guy's just playing devils advocate to stimulate debate....i'd love to be in both your shoes...thats NR and Bp by the way

[NorthernRaider]

"RE: the beginning of the end.
you two are sounding a bit smug there..lol , these little agricultural micro fiefdoms are going to need manpower(when the fuel go's) and currency in this new world will be food and board , if people are starving they will try to take your stuff , having the deeds just wont cut it , you will have to work it and defend it for a long time into this very uncertain future , what about renewable power sources?there's been a lot of effort to bring renewable online , i know its a small percentage of the grid right now but it'll continue meaning tptb will still have limited resources and capabilities. "

Theres plenty of people already out in the boonies with the skills a self reliant community needs and most of em already know each other, most townies will be met by either indifference or hostility I reckon.
And it wont be fiefdoms and serfs it will be already established communities simply uniting to help each other just the the folks on the Somerset levels have been doing in the floods, AND just like the off grid eco village community of Findhorn is already doing very well, and the folks at CAT in Wales, and those in Nottingham etc etc. There is also plenty of already established Wind farms that can be configured to supply only local smart grids, and theres no shorts of PV arrays to be reclaimed , the UK has installed over 2 million in the last 10 years..

What the rural communities may need is very specialised skills like surgeons, but it wont need most townies nor people with guns as most rural communities already have long established groups such as Clay pigeon clubs, game keepers, sports shooting clubs etc, and of course in this area and around places like Taunton, Aldershot, Darmouth, Catterick etc theres also loads of retired and established military veterans . It wont be easy for anyone town or country of that I'm sure but established rural communities have the edge I believe.

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BTW two of the farms near here already produce their own biodiesel made from seed rape they grow for themselves, and the waste dried husks of the rape are used to power heaters for drying grain.

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Mo, my own preps have been in evelopment since I first got into survivalism in 79, but I still consider myself very poorly prepped and very much the novice, you really would not want to be in my shoes, try the guys up in Scotland who have done more in five years than I have in 30 years.