Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Korea Sitrep
6 May 2017, 13:27,
#11
RE: Korea Sitrep
Of course he is MB LOL
ATB
Harry
Reply
22 May 2018, 22:10,
#12
RE: Korea Sitrep
The Current Sitrep:

"The United States has slapped a new round of sanctions on North Korea, singling out a pair of North Korean officials who are considered key to their country’s development of ballistic missiles.

Kim Jong Sik, a long-time rocket scientist, and Ri Pyong Chol, a former senior air force commander, both of whom appear to be close with leader Kim Jong Un, were named, meaning that any assets the two hold in the United States can be seized and banks are banned from transactions with them involving U.S. dollars."
Reply
22 May 2018, 22:25,
#13
RE: Korea Sitrep
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-eva...rea-2018-5

There is a base plan and a couple of branch plans to address various levels of Third Country Nationals who may be evacuated as a favor to allied nations. That plan is exercised at least twice a year, at varying levels of rehearsal. This spring they actually flew about 500 families to Guam as a test.

Every family is required to walk thru the processing twice a year. People are tracked by name and compared to G1 data base and the State Department F77 roster to ensure compliance. Like the flu shot, it’s a pain in the ass that probably benefits some people, but it’s tiresome after a few repetitions.

So there’s a plan on the shelf and people generally know what to do and how to do it. It covers DoD, DoS, all registered US nationals, contractors etc. Drawing up a plan to do it is little more than activating contracts for Civilian Reserve Air Fleet commercial aircraft, opening some warehouses and issuing supplies. Austere accommodations for the evacuee flow will be the rule. Each family is required to travel with 3 days Supply food and water to ease log burden.

Most families are in PyeongTek or points south, a hour or so south of Seoul. That move started a couple years ago. Very few DoD families remain in Seoul. All the DoS families are in Seoul and would move to Osan AIr Base for evac.

In the old days before 9-11, Korea was an unaccompanied tour except commanders and command sergeants major. GEN Leon LaPorte started the move to bring families to Korea in about 2003 and broadly supported the move to accompanied tours.

So, would a, evac order signal alarm? On its face, probably not. The Koreans around US bases would complain about lost revenue. The Korean War vets would protest. Most others would yawn and bid good riddance to everything but the dollars that come from off-post rents and shopping.

That said, Sabre rattling rhetoric would color the perception of a policy shift and might give Kim Jong Il an excuse for bad behavior. Blaming it on big bad America is a favorite tactic of Koreans North and South. It’s a Confucian culture thing to blame the powerful families so it transfers well to their foreign policy.

In my opinion and experience, the decision to conduct an NEO belongs to SecState, not SecDef. NSA should be involved only as an interagency facilitator to avoid unintended consequences. Army provides ground transport, security and life support. The planning teams include Combatant Commands and State Department. DoS has a veto vote on all aspects of the missions. Combatant Commands always came to the table with a base concept of operations. NEO is a fairly standard mission.

It’s possible this story is just the next turn in the drama with Lil Rocket Man to remind him that we are playing nicely and he should too. The Palacer Courtiers are a clever bunch in every country; their subtlety confounds me.

Does Bolton change the calculus? I don’t think so. His statutory authority is very limited. He can’t actually order anyone outside the Old Executive Office Building to to anything. He can ask, suggest, and recommend. He can build consensus. He cannot order. Orders flow from POTUS to SecDef to CJCS for DoD, and from POTUS to Ambassadors and SecState (technically equals) in DoS. National Security Advisor isn’t part of the orders loop.

In my opinion, war is less imminent on the Korean Peninsula than anytime in my life. Both sides have too much to lose and they know it. That situation could change any moment given the recalcitrance and desperation of the DPRK regime. The ball is literally in Kim’s court.

If I were POTUS for the day, I would absolutely order departure of all military dependents and non-essential USG civilians and their families. First as a cost saving measure because civilian employees receive very generous benefits abroad that they don’t get in CONUS. (I would probably order non-essential civilians home globally for the same reason. There’s just too much nonsense and bloat in manning documents).

For Korea, Early Return of dependents is different from Non-Combatant Evacuation. Early Return doesn’t signal emergency and it’s done over time. Easy. Early Return could be twisted as a prelude to war but that’s a hard stretch. DPRK would get the message that things aren’t chummy. Pundits would wail and moan, but it would settle down. And POTUS could rightly say that he’s making America stronger.

Related, I don’t worry that Bolton is a war hawk. He is plain spoken in a world where ambiguity is the norm. That’s a good thing in my view. Little room for misinterpretation. He draws bright and wide lines. Coupled with POTUS tendency to speak plainly that can only improve our foreign policy. No chance at all to stumble into war based on miscalculation.

If war comes it will be a deliberate choice.

73 de KE4SKY
In
"Almost Heaven" West Virginia
USA
Reply
23 May 2018, 18:12,
#14
RE: Korea Sitrep
Kim Jong Sik, a long-time rocket scientist, and Ri Pyong Chol, a former senior air force commander, both of whom appear to be close with leader Kim Jong Un, were named, meaning that any assets the two hold in the United States can be seized and banks are banned from transactions with them involving U.S. dollars."

This "news" is six months old in the face or rapidly changing political situations where presently arrangements are being made for a peace summit.

You did hear about the peace talks, correct?
Reply
27 August 2018, 00:53,
#15
RE: Korea Sitrep
North and South Korea athletes marched under a single flag during the Winter Olympics, while Kim Jong-un conducted his first foreign visit since assuming power. His visit to China included a reaffirmed commitment to denuclearisation.

His visit to the south and meeting with President Moon Jae-in was viewed as another significant step, as both parties made commitments to peace on the peninsula.

And despite the cancelled meeting between the North and the US, Kim Jong-un has said he's still willing to meet "at any time."
Reply
27 August 2018, 16:05,
#16
RE: Korea Sitrep
(27 August 2018, 00:53)Rico Wrote: North and South Korea athletes marched under a single flag during the Winter Olympics, while Kim Jong-un conducted his first foreign visit since assuming power. His visit to China included a reaffirmed commitment to denuclearisation.

His visit to the south and meeting with President Moon Jae-in was viewed as another significant step, as both parties made commitments to peace on the peninsula.

And despite the cancelled meeting between the North and the US, Kim Jong-un has said he's still willing to meet "at any time."


Rico,

I admire your youthful optimism.

I have some Italian bonds I could make you a good deal on.

73 de KE4SKY
In
"Almost Heaven" West Virginia
USA
Reply
27 August 2018, 18:12,
#17
RE: Korea Sitrep
I just read CH's reply ...................i am now cleaning all the mouth full of tea sprayed over my screen and keyboard !
The ability to laugh at yourself while you learn is a great attribute.
Reply
27 August 2018, 18:35,
#18
RE: Korea Sitrep
(27 August 2018, 18:12)Straight Shooter Wrote: I just read CH's reply ...................i am now cleaning all the mouth full of tea sprayed over my screen and keyboard !

Oh, I was completely serious! If President Trump keeps his word and actually buys the debt of the I-ties I'm sure that their bond price will rise! So, buy them at bargain rates now while you can.

On the other hand, with the ChiComs holding so much US debt, and Trump buying the Italian bonds, what is THAT going to do to the value of US Treasury bills?

Oh my! With the Italians abandoning the Euro and Trump deflating the dollar, I'm sure that will bode well for Pound Sterling and Brexit!

It is all a Trump plot to soil Ms. Merkel's petticoats, don't you know...

73 de KE4SKY
In
"Almost Heaven" West Virginia
USA
Reply
27 August 2018, 18:42,
#19
RE: Korea Sitrep
(27 August 2018, 18:35)CharlesHarris Wrote:
(27 August 2018, 18:12)Straight Shooter Wrote: I just read CH's reply ...................i am now cleaning all the mouth full of tea sprayed over my screen and keyboard !

Oh, I was completely serious! If President Trump keeps his word and actually buys the debt of the I-ties I'm sure that their bond price will rise! So, buy them at bargain rates now while you can.

On the other hand, with the ChiComs holding so much US debt, and Trump buying the Italian bonds, what is THAT going to do to the value of US Treasury bills?

Oh my! With the Italians abandoning the Euro and Trump deflating the dollar, I'm sure that will bode well for Pound Sterling and Brexit!

It is all a Trump plot to soil Ms. Merkel's petticoats, don't you know...


If i’d got any spare cash i’d buy some gold, i know you can’t eat it but it won’t devalue.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)