I thought readers here may find interesting a dialogue among retired curmudgeons having backgrounds in emergency management, public health, public works, military and law enforcement. We discussed the need for a more traditional civil defense program for the US. The article linked below discusses how the US got away from this concept about 25 years ago and makes some suggestions for what the program should entail. The author does not discuss the impediments for such a program or a way to deal with them.
Today, the federal government spends more effort on preparing for the impact of a future asteroid than on preparing for the domestic civilian responsibilities in a future war with one or more peer adversaries.
https://www.hsaj.org/resources/uploads/2...042919.pdf
I think CD is a really tough sell to the public as too many have a sense of entitlement and expect everything to be done for them. If the current Coronavirus approaches pandemic level, some people may prepare appropriately but others will wait for help from the government. - L
I think it’s worthwhile making explicit one of my assumptions: that many bureaucrats don’t have the right knowledge or incentives to implement a large scale program. That includes military officers operating outside their expertise centers.
I don’t mean to imply that all government employees are incompetent or lazy. They aren’t. Most are quite conscientious about their duties. However, many tasks are unfamiliar or beyond their skill set. They do the best they can, which sometimes is good enough and sometimes is harmful. Army acquisition is filled with examples of both. As are recent wars.
My starting point is always look at incentives and trust private sector initiatives. The private sector isn’t perfect and will often get things wrong. Private companies simply respond and correct faster because they have to (unless part of a monopsony arrangement buffered from immediate consequence.)
So, there’s a role for government leadership and coordination of effort. The bulk of the heavy lifting should be done by private sector experts with appropriate incentives to reward desired choices. A nudge, if you will (though I dislike the Cass Sunstein abuse of that idea).
My earlier comments below may seem incomplete due to unstated assumptions:
Really good article. Some comments:
- every threat the author raised has been used in real world operations. Russia in Georgia and Crimea; Israel against Syria. Very real. Devastating at critical times.
- Anti-access area denial has a huge defensive component. The services ignore it because “we win on the offense”. You can only tell the flags some many times, then they don’t invite you into the room anymore.
- critical infrastructure protection gets a ton of lip service. I’m pretty comfortable that the nuke facilities do it well. Commercial power, telecommunications, etc do it less well. Setting the right incentives for spares, maintenance, and emergency surgery capacity might do a lot more good for infrastructure protection that any lead federal agency plan.
- Nuclear war is A threat, but not THE threat. It’s the black swan. Cyber and precision strike against (Aerial Ports of Debarkation)APOD/(Sea Ports of Debarkation) SPOD and (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) C4ISR control nodes are the military threat. SPODS have potentially devastating consequences for citizens. Bomb a LNG tanker at the port of Bayonne and things might get sporting in NYC and beyond as the consequences build over a week or two. Good Civil Defense builds resilience to buffer against major disruptions. Commercial drones are becoming cheaper every day for those who point to our great port security.
- You’re right that Americans are spoiled and entitled. They expect someone else to save them. Congress will balk at spending cash for CD training and risk mitigation. Everyone expects CDC to save them from Ebola... or whatever virus results for poor lifestyle choices.
In light of all this, I think the tax structure is the right place to start CD efforts in Congress. Little things like immediate expensing for emergency repair supplies rather than depreciation. That helps utilities and businesses invest in the right things. Similar credits for family CD stocks and equipment could be arranged like the recent tax credits for so-called green energy investment.
The Generals know the risk to critical infrastructure. Besides Paul Nakasone, few mention them in polite company because of the risk to preferred programs. DC politics.
It’s a start if people read it with an open mind. I sent it on to my Senators and a friend who’s on the Carlisle Army War College faculty.
CD must focus on critical infrastructure resilience and repair. Everything else has to come second. People have to take care of themselves in the interim or rely on the charity and forbearance of neighbors.
As an example, the electric grid. If electricity distribution goes down for an extended period we lose a lot. Petroleum refineries slow or stop production. Water purification and distribution is curtailed to emergency levels, if not stopped altogether in some areas. Banking stops. EBT cards quit working. Traffic lights stop. No HVAC, so winter or summer things are unpleasant or dangerous. You get the idea.
Sure, hospitals and government centers have back up power generation as long as the fuel holds up. Some might even have water stocks for emergency providers. Getting the grid back up will be the critical path to restoring normalcy. Regular citizens will have to muddle through.
So regular citizens like us keep some shelf stable groceries, some drinking water, and have an emergency power plan to last a week or two. That’s not a lot, but it’s something. If we take care of ourselves, maybe we can help a neighbor or two. At least we won’t soak up resources demanding rescue.
There’s another group of people who need education and coaxing to focus their efforts. CD could provide that locally. But it would be local folks leading. Like it’s always been. The Rotarians, Shriners, Church Groups, and Scout Leaders reaching out to interested folks and helping them get organized to tolerate a week or so without power. It doesn’t take much to build that level of resilience. Two weeks is plenty of time for FEMA to get organized, if the critical infrastructure is in place or damage can be remediated.
Then there’s the folks who won’t walk across the street to save their lives unless it’s part of looting the 7-11 or liquor store. Those folks will have to be rescued.
All politics are local. Start local. With friends and family. Approach city and county leaders about it, with a hefty petition asking for a plan and resource estimate. Take it from there. We’re trying to get our county executive to respond to our petition. Might take a lawyer to send a letter asking for the emergency response plan update That’s just rural Kansas politics.
The best we can hope from the Feds is to look after national infrastructure And endorse local training organizations. That would be enough if you ask me.
On Jan 28, 2020, at 14:31, D wrote:
I’d love to see this idea moved into the light - it’s a very worthwhile project. Am I correct in thinking that CD is a related part of our western heritage going back to the Magna Carta and even prior to that. (Sorry for such basic questions, but my focus while in the history program was elsewhere.) I see it as hand in glove with the thinking which birthed the 2nd amendment. And the now largely defunct DCMP. Like I believe that basically maybe half the country could be persuaded to support the rebirth of CD. That half of the country’s population has indicated a desire to preserve our traditional values.
Biggest prob is the attitude of the Feds - “we don’t want the Cajun Navy coming here; we don’t need the help”. Although that attitude generally smacks of Democrat Party beliefs about the need to control the people and to replace home grown projects by creating a bureaucratic program with multiple layers of management and with proportionally few deliverables, IIRC, both Presidents Bush were only too happy to see these programs go away.
If they are to have a chance to emulate the Phoenix, they will need knowledgeable proponents within both the civilian and military branches of our government. The impetus tho, would most likely have to come from populist sources who could start getting the topic some air time. This would be perfect for the Republican Party to champion, except that they’re too elitist (IMO) until they need $10 and $15 donations from the Walmart shoppers to top up their war chest. Just thinking.
When running a CAH during the bird flu scare, we led community discussions on the topic, and sought volunteers to help put together a response plan to deal with possible outbreaks at different levels of seriousness. Got some good folks and good ideas. USCG was enthusiastic and wanted to be involved, but were quickly given the word from DC to drop it...
Lots of good points from you guys. Here's my two cents based on some years of experience with business continuity planning along with what I learned while writing an article for Security Management in 2006 entitled Can Your Business Survive a Pandemic.
Depending on how long power is out, things could get really bad. Even a week or two would create major problems in urban and suburban areas. Rural areas are more resilient based to some extent based on tradition. More likely to have generators too.
After a few days, no one would be able to get to work unless they walked or rode a bicycle. This would include critical medical and public safety workers unless some prior planning established ways to get fuel and car pool arrangements for staff on the same shift. Even those plans would only work for so long. Even hospitals would run out of fuel for their generators. In my days with the VA, I did security reviews of field facilities including hospitals. Most had an adequate supply for a week or so. Data centers were worse. In some cases it took some research before I could get an answer regarding how long their fuel would hold out without a delivery. Answer, only a few days.
Regardless of what refineries were able to do, trucks would not be available to deliver fuel. Even the few service stations with generators would be out of gas quickly.
Everything today operates on "just in time" shipments so they do not maintain much inventory. Grocery stores only have about three days on the shelf except maybe for canned goods. Their frozen and refrigerated foods would die quickly. Even if a few employees could get to work, they likely would let in only a few people at a time. Cash only with totals done on calculators. This was done at some Lowes and Home Depot stores after a hurricane.
People who depend on refilling their meds every week or two would be out of luck. Pharmacies would not be able to search their records and after a few days without HVAC, some meds would be worthless. (Some meds last OK even under less than ideal conditions.) Criminals would break into pharmacies to obtain pain meds to sell. Anyone on kidney dialysis would die quickly.
Speaking of dying, there would be no medical examiner's van to remove bodies and funeral homes would cease operating. Families and friends would have to bury their own dead. There's a novel about a family who lived through a pandemic. The husband died and his wife had to bury him in their backyard. She and the children then left town and spent the rest of the pandemic at a remote cabin on a pond owned by a relative.
Those of us who get meds via mail for 90 days at a time would be better off depending on where we were in the cycle. Mail order pharmacies would shut down and postal service would face same problems as everyone else without fuel.
The belief that law and order would break down quickly has been challenged by some who point to experiences after major disasters where people helped each other. There are also those who believe that law and order would break down quickly due to lack of police response. I suspect the truth would be somewhere in between. In neighborhoods where people know each other, I can see sharing what was available and forming community watch and response groups to aid and protect residents.
Without power, our tech devices would not last long. How many people have battery powered radios? That would be the only way to receive any updates on what steps were being taken, when results would be seen, etc. I fear that too many people would not have any way to receive updates and rumors would carry the day.
Most of us have some extra canned foods and a gas grill to cook on. We'd be OK for a couple weeks. On the other hand, I had a conversation with a local emergency manager who pointed out that there are people in our town who survive from day to day. Their next meal would be coming from the 7-11 if it were not already looted. Then they become desperate.
One of the best books on the subject of who survives and why is Amanda Ripley, The Unthinkable. She researched and wrote an excellent book where she interviewed some remarkable survivors. One lady was in the Twin Towers when it was attacked in 1993 and again in 2001. As Amanda points out, those who delayed didn't do well. This book is not a "how to" one but focuses on outcomes in various situations. At the end of the book, she discusses how to improve one's chances at home. A major point is "get to know your neighbors" and you will learn who has what resources. Throw a lawn party and invite neighbors to attend. Another recommendation is lose some weight and get in shape. (I hear this occasionally.)
From Dave (recollections from living in rural Alaska)
We were also going to put together a skills inventory among folks over 16 so we could have a fair idea of our potential to take on projects outside the standard box. The maintenance guy at the hospital was also a great pilot and had worked as a phlebotomist too. I had worked in agriculture, forestry and welding/fitting before my masters program. The guy who ran the post office was a superb trapper, etc etc. Most of the adults there had two or three careers under their belt.
All the best - D
Search
Calendar
Help
