Ukraine

[Mortblanc]

In the grand scheme of things how much bog roll and beans you have saved up means nothing in a war with Russia. Anti-hording laws would be instated immediately and they would be retroactive, just like in WW2.

The government computer sappers would be scouring prepper forums for the IP addresses of preppers with stockpiles on day one. Do expect a knock on the door.

That is not to mention that the first order of business will be shutting off your oil supply, both across the Ukraine and across from Norway. They tested that link out a couple of weeks ago, remember?

I am completely surprised that Russia has not already disconnected your supply. They are probably saving that for the thing where you turn off the lights when you leave the room! Doing so before-hand would signal the start of the invasion.

You are going to get cold fast and have no transport to anywhere after the tank runs dry.

And the well known "travel sanctions" will be in force from the date of oil shutoff. Your own government has tested that system thoroughly for the past two years. I would expect a quick arrest if found on the roads.

The internet will also be nonfunctional for one of two reasons. (1) Russia shuts it down
(2) Your own government shuts it down and blames it on Russia. There is no need to let the Russians know how bad things are back home by filtering social media.

This last little flurry of Russian activity was simply to see how fast NATO would and could mobilize, and they found out. They already knew the exact location and disposition of every soldier in western Europe, now they know how fast they can get to their taxis.

There was no intent to invade while the ground in the Ukraine was frozen and gave equal capabilities to the armor of both forces.

The intent is to wait until 4-6 days before the spring thaw and invade across country, by air, and with rapidly moving ground forces and reach their objectives just as the ground becomes "mud soup" and restricts any retaliatory strikes to (1) the main paved roads, (2) rail (3) air strikes. (there will be no NATO air superiority)

Western Europe has not fought a war with a power of equal strength and technology for nearly 80 years. You are not going up against the Argentines this time.

NATO has never in its history sent forces on missions where they expected 20%-50% casualties.

One in GB must also remember that the UK has approximately 180,000 troops under arms including all allied forces stationed or attached to UK forces. They are scattered all over the world. So far the direct commitment has been 8,000 men. The U.S. has sent the same.

NATO has approximately 60,000 troops ready for mobilization but not in staging areas.

Russia has 200,000 troops ready to take one step forward into the Ukraine.

Don't expect any of the first troops you send into an active war with Russia to come back. There will be no second Dunkirk.

I am one of the possibly 3 or 4 people on this forum that has been trained to fight against the Russian military. My trainers were NATO officers from across Europe and the UK. It was truly frightening to look at the numbers and the capabilities and have NATO trainers tell you, "you can't win, all you can do is slow them down and fight until they kill you!"

That was in the 1970s. The Russian technology has improved since then.

[CharlesHarris]

I wonder if Ukraine kept and maintained in secret any of the low yield battlefield tactical nukes which used to be stored there? Those massed RU troops would make a tempting target. Maybe they missed class the day the lesson was to disperse forces to deny target availability.

[Mortblanc]

That has been my thinking for the entire crisis. Russia is very confident they will not be hit in their assembly areas while we wave pictures of the areas about and do our shouting of imminent invasion.

Breaking up troops in the assembly areas was what T-nukes were designed for.

Once the enemy has invaded it is too late to use tactical nukes. No country is going to use nukes on their own soil after the fact.

We will not use them due to fear of instant retaliation, but for the Ukraine, at the instant before the first troops leave the assembly area and head to the FEBA it would be a huge temptation. They are being invaded, what do they have to loose.

[CharlesHarris]

Exactly the scenario being discussed at SAMS (School of Advanced Military Studies, Ft. Leavenworth, KS) this week.

[bigpaul]

invading is not the problem, holding ground you have won is, the Russians found that out in Afghanistan.

[bigpaul]

I doubt very much the UK or even the US has any intention of actually fighting the Russians, Ukraine after all is not a NATO member, all the talk is about financial sanction IF and WHEN Russia invades, so far they have not.

[Joe]

Ukrainian is a distraction, perhaps someone in power is trying to get you to look at this and avert your attention from something else.

[bigpaul]

yeah, rightly said.
probably the removal of your rights by govt and big business. like what is happening in Canada, Australia and Austria.

[Joe]

Or even to distract you from the royal pay off. Who knows for sure but it’s very suspicious.

[bigpaul]

the royal pay off interests me not one bit.













TBH the royal pay off interests me not one little bit. I always thought "Randy Andy" was a bit of a prat.