Survival UK Forums

I really think this will be non-event.

Odds are it will hit the ocean.

I've just done a big post about Playing the Numbers. There is a 70% chance it will hit the ocean (70% of our planets surface is water) and only a 30% chance it will hit land. So, odds are........1 in 3030 that it will hit earth, and then a 3 in 10 chance it will hit land. Which looks more like 1 in 9090 chance it will hit land. The UK is a small part of that land mass. So odds are more like 1 in 50'000 that the UK will be hit.

Non-event. But cool news, none-the-less.

according to the guy in the video (and my calculations) its current path will definitely be a miss.
however if it hits into another object hard enough, its course might change and it might hit earth.

(11 December 2012, 12:53)Scythe13 Wrote: [ -> ]I really think this will be non-event.

Odds are it will hit the ocean.

I've just done a big post about Playing the Numbers. There is a 70% chance it will hit the ocean (70% of our planets surface is water) and only a 30% chance it will hit land. So, odds are........1 in 3030 that it will hit earth, and then a 3 in 10 chance it will hit land. Which looks more like 1 in 9090 chance it will hit land. The UK is a small part of that land mass. So odds are more like 1 in 50'000 that the UK will be hit.

Non-event. But cool news, none-the-less.

just to add what would happen if it did hit and ocean, there will be a hell of a lot of displaced water so could lead to massive tides or even tidal waves. Increase in seas temperatures could impact the ecosystem or even alter the gulf stream or other ocean currents and totally change the environmental conditions of some big regions of the planet.

saying that it may need something bigger to do that

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big tides could lead to significant flooding too

Scythe, Everyone including myself, get these odds mixed up.

If it has a 1 in 3030 cjance of hitting earth. then your calc is 9090 for hitting land then that means it is a 21210 chamce of hitting water. Huh. giw can that be so much more? This is the one area of normal maths where everyone gets mixed up.

ummmmm think i got it