16 July 2015, 16:08
http://www.theprepperjournal.com/2015/07...o-bug-out/
Hard Decisions: Knowing When to Bug Out – Pt. 1
By Bolo on July 10, 2015@prepperjournal
Editor’s Note: This article was generously contributed by Bolo. It is the first of a two-part series on knowing when to bug out. In this series Bolo will lay out a large number of triggers that could signal to you that it is time to pack up your bug out bag and leave everything behind for your family’s safety. When that day comes will you know when to go? Will you be ready?
What Are Your Bug Out Triggers?
What conditions would have to exist for you to decide that you had to abandon your home; that remaining there had become more dangerous than bugging out into a world that has gone side ways (at least in the corner of it that you can observe)? Some natural events are pretty easy to visualize, such as hurricanes, tsunamis and out of control wild fires. But these are actually localized evacuations and not ‘bug outs.’ In these events you can reasonably expect that first responders will flow into your area quickly. They will be followed by state and federal agencies with varying degrees of timeliness and effectiveness.
Disaster relief funding will be appropriated, insurance companies will write you a check to repair or rebuild and, eventually, you will be able to move back into your property. In other words, the massive infrastructures of local, state and federal governments will have continued to function throughout the disaster. All’s well that ends well, right?
But, what if there weren’t going to be any first responders? What if state and federal governments were overwhelmed by the scale of the disaster, or if they effectively ceased to exist at the very moment of the event? In some SHTF scenarios those conditions might prevail and you simply haven’t learned of it yet. So, here you are in your dark home, with no water. You’ve burned the last chair from your dining room set to keep warm and you haven’t seen any neighbors for more than two weeks. Maybe it’s time to go, but you aren’t really sure.
If you find it difficult to articulate the conditions under which you would be willing to bug out, you aren’t alone. That difficulty is compounded by generally vague SHTF/TEOTWAWKI scenarios and a lack of meaningful decision trigger points. What are the differences between an inconvenient, undesirable situation and one that has become intolerable and possibly life threatening? Can you make such a decision with the full knowledge that no “mulligan” will be issued if you get it wrong, that once you step outside the door of your home, it may be for the last time?
For purposes of this discussion, I make the following important distinctions between evacuation and bugging out:
An evacuation is accompanied with the reasonable expectation that you will be able to return to your residence in the foreseeable future. It means not only that you are leaving a place under imminent threat, but that you are evacuating to a known place of safety where aid can be provided by a still-functioning government or the charity of others. An evacuation means that rule of law and its consequences continue to apply across the entire spectrum of society and that there has been no suspension of Constitutional rights. Your primary concern may be as simple as finding a motel that hasn’t turned on its “No Vacancy” sign.
Bugging out means that you have no reasonable expectation of returning. It means that sheltering in place in a post-SHTF environment has failed as a strategy and has become more dangerous to your survival than bugging out. Rule of law may no longer be respected or enforceable. It also means that no one can guarantee a safe route of passage or a safe destination. Finally, it means that you have no guarantee of receiving aid; that acquiring essential food, water, shelter and security are entirely dependent upon your ability. In other words, you are on your own.
With two exceptions (#22 and #23), all of the questions that follow are independent of any specific type of SHTF event. Instead, they deal with conditions and information that will help determine whether or when you need to bug out. The list is by no means complete; you are welcome to add questions that pertain more directly to your own environment. Rather than treat them with simple yes or no answers, consider the degrees of risk that may develop as time progresses.
As you work through the list it will become evident that answers to multiple questions can lead to a more complete understanding of your situation and the world around you. Having many data points is more reliable than basing a decision on a single piece of potentially flawed information.
Running From Fire
The questions deal with specific aspects of public safety, public or government infrastructure, your own resources, or conditions in your immediate area or region. There are no redundant questions. For reasons that should be obvious, this article assumes that you have already made some level of preparation to bug out.
(1) Can you defend your home?
Understanding the defensive limitations of your home and property should be the prime factor in determining whether and when to bug out before it ever becomes necessary to do so. The stark reality is that the vast majority of residences are not designed or constructed for defense. Windows, sliding glass doors and wood or stucco exteriors will not stop a bullet or a determined intruder, and some calibers can penetrate cement block walls. In the typical suburban setting, with small property lots and walled in back yards, the defensive field of view is extremely limited. Without some form of perimeter security you may face the prospect of repelling armed looters that have already entered your home.
Can you maintain a visual awareness of approaching threats around the clock?
Can you maintain this level of awareness for days or weeks?
Is your concept of defense dependent upon distance?
In other words, can you tolerate a potential threat that is 1 mile or only 200 yards away? What if there is an existential threat standing on the other side of your front door?
Objectively accessing your ability to stop looters outside your residence is a paramount consideration, regardless how defensible you think the interior may be. Importantly, ask yourself if you would be able to prevent or defend against simultaneous entries from multiple points in your house.
A low probability of success (intrusion prevention) is an obvious red flag. That doesn’t mean it will happen, but if you do not believe that you can prevent entry from multiple points without endangering your family or yourself, then you must conclude that your home is not defensible. If the answer is “no,” the issue now becomes whether you are willing to gamble on the outcome. Simply stated, if your home is not defensible and other factors (below) indicate an increasing risk over time, you must at least consider bugging out for your own safety.
Does your disaster preparation plan include security measures?
Another aspect of home defensibility pertains to fire. Are trees or native brush located near the structures on your property? Do you have a defensive (fuel-free) space that would prevent an uncontrolled fire from destroying your home? Could you suppress a fire without the aid of the fire department? Before you answer “yes” to this question, could you do it if there was no water?
(2) How long have you been bunkered in your residence?
The longer you remain in place the less likely you are to be factually aware of the situation unfolding around you. This is particularly true if you cannot obtain information from news networks, local radio stations, etc. Events and threats can develop rapidly. The absence of timely eye-witness or other authoritative information can mean that you are in the path of increasing danger and don’t know it.
The assurance of continued safety may require that you reconnoiter your area on a regular basis to assess current conditions. Speak with as many people as you can (safely), but you must also evaluate the other questions on this list.
If possible, set up a regular time each day to meet with neighbors to share information.
Makeshift barricades are a low-tech way of blocking or slowing access.
Makeshift barricades are a low-tech way of blocking or slowing access.
(3) Has your neighborhood been forced to erect barricades?
The erection of barricades across streets leading into your neighborhood may be a preemptory defensive measure to a perceived threat, or it could be in response to an active threat. You will need to determine which situation pertains.
If conditions are such that barricades are deemed necessary by local residents, you must at least consider that the risk to personal safety has increased to a level that warrants consideration of bugging out. In other words, if barricades are necessary, but become ineffective, your zone of safety will be greatly diminished,
(4) Are you counting on neighbors for your own security?
Is your strategy for sheltering in place dependent upon the cooperation of neighbors to maintain a degree of safety?
Do you consider that your neighbors are able (equipped, competent and physically capable) to contribute to your security?
Have you exchanged commitments (a mutual defense pact of sorts) regarding area security? Is it based upon a perceived threat level or the passage of time? In other words, does the pact hold as long as the threat is minimal? Have neighbors (or you) committed to remain in place for a limited time, such as one more week, or are you/they hanging in on a day-to-day or hour by hour basis?
Are you confident that you can patrol your neighborhood without being shot by a local resident? Think about that for a moment. How do you intend to reconnoiter your neighborhood if you have no means to communicating with each other?
(5) Have your neighbors abandoned their homes? Has your security situation improved or worsened since they left?
After the event that caused you to shelter in place, have you seen neighbors generally packing up to leave?
Have neighbors (that you were counting on for mutual defense) started leaving their homes?
Has your ability to protect your residence been degraded by the departure of others?
A sharp decline of residents in any neighborhood effectively isolates those who stay. Remaining residents are surrounded by unoccupied structures and will be unable to prevent looting and arson. In such a case it may be beneficial for remaining residents to relocate into adjacent houses where they can maintain close communication and concentrate their defenses.
(6) Are you willing and prepared to salvage supplies from residences in your area?
If you are determined to shelter in place for an extended period of time you will inevitably need something that you do not presently have or that you have run out of. The list of potential items is virtually endless, yet you may be surrounded by homes that were hastily abandoned – possessions whose owner/occupants will never reclaim. You are faced with a choice: You can inventory and salvage useful items, or you can sit back and wait for looters and scavengers to take them. Either way, it is merely a matter of time before your neighborhood will be cleaned out of anything that is useful, that may extend your life or improve your safety.
I am not advocating theft or looting. I’m talking about a world that has gone sideways; a world where rule of law has largely collapsed; where government has ceased to function; where even the declaration of martial law has no effect on the behavior of people.
If you are unwilling to salvage abandoned material, you may be hastening the day when bugging out is the only course of action remaining to you. Importantly, you will still be without the items that you needed.
Abandoned City
(7) When is the last time you saw or spoke with anyone outside your own dwelling?
Let’s look at an extreme hypothetical situation where you have been bunkered for two months in a typical suburban environment. There was an initial chaotic period where neighbors were fleeing their homes and large numbers of refugees were streaming through your area. Those numbers declined after a week, but were replaced by looters and scavengers during the next four weeks. None of your neighbors have returned and no refugees have moved into vacant structures. You have now been in place for two months and you haven’t seen a single soul in the past three weeks.
Does this mean that you’ve weathered the worst of the post-SHTF event, that you are safe? Hardly. This scenario brings us squarely to the issues of situational awareness and your sense of timing. Your decision to shelter in place means that you were neither ahead of nor in the middle of the golden hoard. They left you behind a long time ago.
Except for what you have been able to salvage or scavenge for yourself, every business and dwelling place may have been picked clean for miles in every direction. There is still no potable water, gasoline, propane, packaged food, seeds, protein on the hoof or medicines that you can find.
At some point you have to confront the concept of what it would mean to be totally alone; without the possibility of immediate or future aid. Now what? Do you have objective reason to think that your original bug out destination is still a viable option?
(8) Have you seen or been forced to repel looters?
Many major metropolitan areas provide information about the location of criminal activity via web sites. It is fairly easy to identify high crime zones, as well as the general nature of the activity (burglary, assault, homicide, etc.) by looking at an interactive map.
What distance is your home from these chronic hot spots? Are there convenient routes that would enable riots and looting to spread toward your residence if law enforcement was unable to control or contain it? How much time would it take for looters to reach your neighborhood?
In the absence of public communication you may have no knowledge of the proximity of looters to your residence. Realistically, whatever that time frame is, you have far less time to decide whether to bunker down or bug out.
Once looters enter your neighborhood your margin of safety could shrink to near zero.
When is the last time you had access to water?
(9) How long has it been since the electrical grid went down?
Local weather events and even accidents can cause power outages lasting from a few minutes to a few days, but people still go to work and shop in areas where power is available. Utility crews show up with chain saws, electrical cable, poles and transformers. Long duration outages (greater than three days) could indicate a problem that is far more widespread than your immediate locality.
From almost any high point you should be able to spot the sky glow from city lights reflecting off cloud cover at night. I can see the night glow from cities 70 miles south and 50 miles north of my location. If you are unable to see city lights in any direction, the event that caused your outage may be at least regional in scale.
The key to this issue is not the outage itself, but whether the resources (manpower and replacement gear) exist to recover from it in a time-frame that enables you to remain in your residence. Without electricity, the infrastructures that provide gasoline, natural gas, public communications and water will be inoperable. At some point, you will begin to use and deplete irreplaceable emergency supplies that you have stored in your home.
(10) How long have you been without a source of water?
The delivery of urban water depends upon electric pumps, purification plants and large capacity storage tanks to maintain pressure. Without electricity, water will cease to flow.
Here is a straightforward equation: S–C=R. If you started this event with a five-day supply of water (S) and it has been five days since water stopped flowing from your tap, then you have consumed © all that you had stored at the end of the 5th You now have zero days of water remaining ®. Conservation of your dwindling supply is irrelevant if there are no prospects that water will begin to flow from the tap. Without the ability to replenish potable water stocks, continued occupation of your residence will become untenable. If you have no source of water, neither will anyone else in your immediate area.
(11) Are you running low on your bug out supplies of food and water?
When the taps went dry, how much potable water did you have on hand (measured in days of supply) for the number of people in your residence, including water needed for food preparation and toilets?
Including cooked or uncooked foods that were refrigerated or frozen before the power grid went down, how many meals do you have available for the number of people in your residence?
Assuming that you have a bug out plan, how much of that food and water will be needed to reach your destination once you abandon your residence? Once you begin depleting your bug out resources, you will effectively be reducing your range of travel; possibly without the ability to replenish supplies along the way.
(12) Are grocery stores, gas stations, pharmacies and banks in your area open for business?
Have you ever experienced panic buying situations where shoppers strip food aisles in the face of an oncoming winter storm? There is no reason to think that a SHTF situation would not produce the same or worse behaviors, but of a greater magnitude.
If the situation is accompanied with large-scale power outages of long duration, modern commerce will effectively cease. To the extent that any purchases are possible, they will be strictly cash and carry; but the conventional sources of cash (banks) will be closed. It will not matter how much you have in your checking or savings account; you will not be able to access it or convert it to a usable form.
For anyone that is sheltering in place under such conditions, the cash and supplies that you have on hand are all that you are likely to have for the foreseeable future. Given those circumstances, you must determine when bugging out will become necessary. The key question is whether you intend to be in front of or behind the Golden Horde.
Empty Highway
(13) Has home delivery ceased?
At minimum, there are three organizations that make regular deliveries to your home or neighborhood and they are ubiquitous throughout the country: USPS mail carriers, Fedex and UPS vans. And, unless you haul your own trash, the local sanitation department will make weekly or semi-weekly stops to empty the dumpsters that you place on the curb.
If all of these services have ceased it could be that your area is no longer considered safe for employees to enter. This could be a localized or temporary issue, in which case there will be other indicators to help with your assessment of risk.
The absence of mail and package delivery may also be caused by other factors, such as the collapse of regional or national logistics systems that rely on air and ground transportation, massive sorting centers and, of course, data processing and communications.
A build up of trash at your residence (while other houses have none) will indicate that it is still occupied, that you are sheltering in place, and that you have some level of resources, such as food and water. Can you conceal or bury trash while sheltering place?
(14) Have you seen any long-haul freight carriers operating on highways?
Freight transporters cannot function without fuel, communications and logistics. If tractor-trailer rigs aren’t moving in and out of depots, are piling up at truck stops or are sitting on the side of the road, there has been a major breakdown in the transport/supply system.
Many businesses rely on “just in time” delivery for merchandise, including food, by using real-time inventory control systems and automatic low order restocking points. If the order cannot be fulfilled, if the distribution center cannot load freight onto a truck, or if the truck cannot roll, the supply line will back up – but not at your merchant’s back door. Material will be stuck in distribution centers, at the producer’s plant, or may be rotting in a farm field. Consequently, supply chains will quickly fail.
Looting and other forms of civil disorder are likely to occur within hours and could quickly become widespread. Initial looting targets are almost always retail stores. The next likely targets would be distribution centers and other types of supply warehouses. Common sense suggests that freight haulers will not enter areas where civil disturbances are uncontrolled.
In Part 2, we will examine the remaining questions that you should evaluate when before making a decision to bug out.
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http://www.theprepperjournal.com/2015/07/11/when-to-bug-out/
Hard Decisions: Knowing When to Bug Out – Pt. 2
By Bolo on July 11, 2015@prepperjournal
Editor’s Note: This article is the second in a two-part series that was generously contributed by Bolo on knowing when to bug out. In this second article, Bolo continues laying out a large number of triggers that could signal to you that it may be time to gather the family, pack up your bug out bags and leave everything behind for your family’s safety. When that day comes will you know when it’s time to go? Will you be ready?
In Part 1, we examined subjects that pertain largely to safety issues in your home and neighborhood, as well as commerce and certain types of services and infrastructures that you depend upon. In this concluding segment we will look at additional infrastructures and the conditions that may generally prevail throughout the area where you live. It is worthwhile to repeat that the more information you have, the more likely you are to make effective and timely decisions.
(15) Have news networks broadcast official advisories or orders to evacuate your residence, town or city?
Public safety warnings are an indication that government is (or was) operational at some level at the time of the announcement. Were these notices issued before you decided to bunker down? If yes, have subsequent advisories/orders been issued, updated or cancelled? Or have you heard no further updates?
Are the messages prerecorded statements on continuous replay or are they live broadcasts? In other words, is anyone at home at the station?
General orders to evacuate your area following SHTF are a clear indication that local government (at minimum) is not able to protect you from a recognized or developing threat. You are, in effect, on your own and a decision to remain in place may become increasingly untenable.
AM/FM NOAA Emergency Crank Radio with Solar Power Panel – Makes a great survival supply to have on hand.
(16) Can you pick up any AM or FM radio station on a battery/solar-powered radio? If yes, how far away is it?
If the local radio stations that you normally listen to are off the air, the area affected by the event could have a radius of 50 to 100 miles.
A few AM band radio stations have sufficient radiated power to be heard from a distance of several hundred miles when atmospheric conditions are favorable, or if you are on elevated terrain. If you are unable to pick up these distant stations then the affected area is at least regional in scale and may have affected most of the country.
If you have a spool of speaker wire (50 to 100 feet), you can rig an external antenna to a battery-powered AM/FM radio to extend your reception range. I have picked up radios stations (those with even modest radiated power) from distances as great as 500 miles using this technique. AM stations with very high power, such as KOMA (1520 kHz) can be picked up from distances exceeding 800 miles.
Your ability (or lack thereof) to pick up distant commercial radio stations can inform you of the scale of the event you are dealing with.
(17) Are you able to receive official alerts on emergency and/or 2-way radios?
NOAA weather reports are broadcast on six frequencies in the 162.400 to 162.525 MHz range on the VHF band. Bulletins are broadcast from nearly 1,000 stations around the country, but are issued from central locations, such as the principal National Weather Service facility in your area (which may not be in your state). For example, Wyoming presently has 21 NOAA transmitters, but broadcasts originate from only five locations, of which three are in different states (Montana, Utah and South Dakota).
Why is this important? If you are in an area that ordinarily receives NOAA broadcasts, but you are now unable to pick up the alerts, the transmitter station could be without power or the broadcast station may no longer be in service (or both). For example, broadcasts for central Wyoming originate in Rapid City South Dakota. The power outage that you are experiencing may cover a large region.
Transmitter coverage area is dependent upon station location, effective radiated power and terrain. For station locations, output power and coverage maps in your state, see: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/coverage/sta...sting.html
No Phone Service
If your phone shows no signal then all towers within your range are down.
(18) Does your cell phone or land line still work?
All cell phones indicate the strength of signal they are receiving from the nearest operational tower. If your phone shows no signal then all towers within your range are down.
Land line phones connect to a local central office (CO) which, in turn, is connected to a Point of Presence (POP) facility where calls and communications circuits are aggregated. If there is no dial tone then there is either a break in circuit continuity between your phone and the CO; or the Central Office is, itself, no longer operational.
By itself, the absence of dial tone does not indicate the scale of the problem (whether local, regional or national). A simultaneous outage of land lines and cell phones certainly indicates a severe localized failure, but it still does not tell you anything about the actual scale. The longer both types of communication remain inoperative the probability increases that the scale of the outage is at least regional.
(19) How many hours or days have passed since you saw or spoke with law enforcement personnel in your area?
If you have been sheltering in place for several days and not seen or spoken with law enforcement officers in your neighborhood, it is possible that your locality is not immediately threatened by civil disorder. However, it could also mean that all available police are busy dealing with public safety issues in other portions of your community. The worst possible scenario is that they have bunkered down or bugged out to protect their own families.
If it is possible to do so safely, quickly reach out to local police. They would want to know current conditions in your neighborhood, even though they may not be able to provide direct protection. Of all people who you may come in contact with, local police are most likely to know current and evolving situations and to be sympathetic to your situation.
The national ratio of police officers (in the field) to citizens generally ranges between one and two per 1,000. Frankly, a SHTF event and its aftermath could easily overwhelm law enforcement resources. They may be busy protecting fire fighters who are trying to prevent arson caused fires from reaching your neighborhood.
If local police have been augmented by officers from outlying communities, Sheriffs Deputies, state DPS officers or National Guard, this may indicate that civil disorder has become an imminent threat and is moving in your direction.
The protracted absence of law enforcement in your area is not, I think, a very good sign. Without phone service, police will not be able to respond to 911 calls for help. Without radio communications, they will not be able to communicate with each other.
The total and continued absence of police presence in your area, especially without augmentation by external law enforcement resources, may indicate that local authority, including the capacity to govern, is not assured. It worst, it could indicate a collapse of local or state government.
You must consider the degree to which your continued safety in residence is dependent upon local law enforcement.
When was the last time you saw a fire department vehicle or ambulance in your immediate area?
(20) When was the last time you saw a fire department vehicle or ambulance in your immediate area?
If you have no water, the fire hydrants in your area will also be dry. This would require engine companies to pump water from wells or local lakes or rivers. Their ability to respond to and suppress fires in a timely manner will be degraded, to say the least.
Where is the nearest FD station to your residence? If local 911 emergency services are not working, can you safely determine whether the station remains staffed and operational?
Are there areas in your community where firefighters are requiring the protection of police? Are there areas where the fire department can not, or will not, enter for reasons of safety?
In the absence of fire department protection, civil disorder takes on an entirely different dimension. No rational distinction can be made between a looter and a potential arsonist from the perspective of safety. (Think Baltimore and Ferguson.) If you and your local fire department are unable to suppress a fire, and uncontrolled fires are already occurring in your community, you must consider bugging out.
(21) Have strangers stopped at your residence seeking food, water or shelter?
Countless acts of compassion and charity occur around us and across the world every day. Sadly, so do acts of violence, brutality and savagery. Regardless of your capacity to aid refugees, you should at least consider trading assistance for information. Where are they coming from? How long have they been on the move before reaching your area? Where are they headed, and why? If you want to think of that as a transaction, it might be worth allowing them a safe place to rest, an opportunity to refill a canteen, or a meal. From a purely selfish standpoint, information that you might obtain from refugees will provide useful information about conditions in your region.
Importantly, what you can learn from these poor souls may also save your life. A map and a box of stick pins can help you visualize the scale of the SHTF event that you are facing. Did the last passers-by depart their home (perhaps from a distance of 100 miles) five days ago? What route did they take? What conditions did they witness while en route? Have they encountered hostile actions? Are they barely ahead of armed gangs?
Information that enables you to objectively assess current or pending threat conditions is invaluable; it may be vital in determining if/when you will need to bug out.
(22) Have all battery-powered electronic devices (laptops, cell phones, two-way radios, GPS units, etc.) ceased working?
This question is not about whether you forgot to charge your personal electronic devices; rather, were they working before the event, but not after? Change out the batteries to confirm if they will operate. If they are still inoperable you may be seeing the consequence of an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP).
If you were planning to take or use any of these tools when you bug out, they may now be useless, and it is too late to learn how to build a simple, but effective, Faraday Cage that would have saved your gear.
The loss of public power can be compensated (for a time) by using portable generators or solar voltaic systems. However, if your personal electronics have been rendered useless, you must determine how it will affect your decision to shelter in place versus bugging out.
(23) Can you start the engine on your vehicle(s)? Are any vehicles moving – anywhere?
To my knowledge, the simultaneous failure of all motor vehicles can only indicate that an EMP event has occurred. It would be accompanied by a widespread failure of the electrical grid. Any device that relies on computer chips will likely cease to operate if they are not EMP hardened. With the possible exception of military, this would presumably include any aircraft in flight or on the ground, and any commuter rail systems that rely on electricity.
An EMP event means that you will be on foot while bugging out. As indicated by #22 above, you will also be without electronic communications and navigation devices unless they were protected in advance.
How would an EMP affect your bug out plans? Would the loss of motorized transportation and communications accelerate, delay or terminate your departure? Why?
Mass evacuations are a recipe for massive traffic jams.
(24) Are nearby major traffic arteries blocked by abandoned vehicles?
Mass evacuations are a recipe for massive traffic jams. Although the nearest Interstate highway may be a significant distance from your residence, nearby major traffic arteries may first become congested and then blocked. Accidents and vehicles running out of gas will merely compound the problem, eventually forcing people to strike out on foot. If such an event has already occurred and you have been sheltering in place for days or weeks, you need to remain informed about traffic conditions. For example, are vehicles being cleared by tow trucks, or have conditions remained unchanged?
Obviously, the longer highways remain unusable, the underlying situation remains unresolved. If you decide to bug out, you must accept that many thousands of people are well ahead of you and many thousands more may be behind you.
(25) When is the last time you saw or heard the sound of a helicopter or other aircraft?
The federal government can, in cases of national emergency, order the grounding of civilian and commercial aircraft; as happened on 9-11, 2001.
You may recall that eerie period of several days when there were no contrails in the sky or private aircraft practicing touch and go landings at local airports. If you are able to observe or hear aircraft in flight, it will be important to determine whether they are civilian, commercial, public safety, medical evacuation, military or “other.” The distinction is important because it can inform you about the situation in your area.
A prolonged absence of civilian and commercial aircraft almost certainly means that a national security threat of some type has been declared. Conversely, the resumption of this type of traffic indicates an improvement over previous conditions.
Commonly seen rotary wing aircraft (other than privately owned) are generally composed of law enforcement, medical evacuation, public safety, commuter taxis, radio/TV traffic reporting and non-military federal agencies (such as Border Patrol, DEA and FBI, etc). That is a wide array of groups, but all of them could be mustered for support service in times of emergency. If you are seeing (or hearing) helicopters in your area it will mean that government is functioning at some level, but it does not mean that conditions are safe or normal.
Military aircraft are easy to identify by sight and sound. If transport aircraft, such as C-5, C-17, C-130 variants and Ospreys are operating in your area, you may reasonably infer that supplies or troops are being transported to or from an airport in your vicinity. If you are seeing heavy lift rotary wing aircraft, such as CH-53, Chinook and Blackhawk helicopters, or smaller UH “Huey” helicopters ferrying troops or supplies, there may be tactical military operations in your area. The presence of attack helicopters (not previously seen), such as Apache and Cobra, especially if they are carrying ordnance, may mean that our military is engaged in countering acts of lawlessness or aggression.
At the most extreme, a complete and continued absence of traffic, regardless of type, could mean that air traffic control systems (such as FAA radars) are not operational or that the aircraft themselves have become inoperable.
Coming to a town near you?
(26) Have roadblocks or checkpoints been established on public streets or highways your area?
For purposes of this discussion, a roadblock is comprised of portable devices used for the temporary closure of a road and is normally accompanied by flashing yellow lights mounted on collapsible saw-horses and signage that says “Street Closed,” or “Road Flooded,” etc. A roadblock can be quickly set and removed by highway crews or police. A checkpoint is, in effect, a roadblock that has been set to stop and interrogate travelers.
Checkpoints may be for a variety of purposes, but in a SHTF situation, they could be used to screen individuals, check for (or confiscate) weapons, or provide directions to hospitals, food and shelter. In other words, a checkpoint would likely be manned by armed law enforcement or military personnel.
If roadblocks are being set up in your area, it may be to channel vehicular and/or foot traffic along a desired route – one that enables police to provide some measure of control and security. Checkpoints may not be nearly as benign. If at all possible, determine in advance their nature and purpose before you bug out. The purpose of both types will help inform you about current conditions, as well as any alterations necessary for a successful bug out route.
(27) Can you see smoke from structure fires in any direction?
The sighting of any fire, whether far or near, should be of concern in the aftermath of SHTF. If you are bunkered in, your view to the horizon may be measured in blocks (or even feet) rather than miles.
Without public communications you may have no awareness of the cause (such as looting/arson), and you may have limited warning of the extent or direction in which fires are moving. It is essential that you have a plan for responding to the threat of fire, regardless of its cause.
(28) Are you hearing the sound of gunfire or explosions?
If the answer to question #1 was no and the answer to this question is yes, then you have probably reached a situation where bugging out is no longer safe and sheltering in place has become even more dangerous.
Is the gunfire sporadic or sustained? From your vantage point, is it concentrated in a small area or is it widespread? Can you reliably judge the distance and direction of movement? Can you reliably judge the amount of time you have to depart your home?
A lot of factors can work against your ability to detect weapons fire (particularly small arms) at distances greater than one-half mile. Terrain and urban structures can block the transmission of sound. Weather conditions (especially rain and buffeting wind) can muffle distant sounds.
Your preferred route of departure may have become blocked. Do you have more than one route from your dwelling place that can provide cover while you put distance between the threat and your family?
(29) Has martial law been declared?
If martial law has been declared, your constitutionally guaranteed rights and liberties, including freedom of movement, may no longer exist in the eyes of government. The supervision of law enforcement by the judiciary will have been suspended. Without redress, you can be forcefully removed from your home. You may be forced to surrender your property (real and personal), including any food stocks, firearms and ammunition that you posses.
Section 1031 of the National Defense Authorization Act, passed by Congress in 2012, effectively repealed the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. As a legal matter, the declaration of martial law is no longer limited to the threat of invasion or rebellion, or by a threat to public safety, as required in Article 1 Section 9 of the US Constitution.
The question you must resolve is whether the implications of martial law, as well as the conditions and justifications under which they were imposed, represent a direct threat to continued safety and survival as you shelter in place.
An important consideration is whether you believe that a declaration of martial law is something that you are willing to comply with. For it to be effective it must be enforceable. Are you unwilling to comply?
(30) Are police or other government personnel conducting house clearing operations in your area? Are people being forcefully removed from their homes?
Depending on conditions, you may have little or no warning that citizens are being systematically forced to vacate their residences.
If uniformed teams (police/military or unfamiliar paramilitary units) are moving house to house through your neighborhood, the question may not be whether you will be forced to leave, but if you can depart with your possessions ahead of a forced removal. Bugging out may be the only option you have to avoid “resettlement” to a place other than your choosing, and at the expense of your freedom. If operations of this nature are occurring in your area, you may have very little time to make a decision.
Conclusion
Making a decision to shelter in place after a SHTF event is not as straightforward or simple as you might have expected. Importantly, deciding to abandon your residence – a place that you hoped would provide a base of supplies and relative safety – is no easy matter either. Nor should it be. Hopefully, an objective analysis of the conditions that you may one day have to deal with will make you better prepared for any eventuality.
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Hard Decisions: Knowing When to Bug Out – Pt. 1
By Bolo on July 10, 2015@prepperjournal
Editor’s Note: This article was generously contributed by Bolo. It is the first of a two-part series on knowing when to bug out. In this series Bolo will lay out a large number of triggers that could signal to you that it is time to pack up your bug out bag and leave everything behind for your family’s safety. When that day comes will you know when to go? Will you be ready?
What Are Your Bug Out Triggers?
What conditions would have to exist for you to decide that you had to abandon your home; that remaining there had become more dangerous than bugging out into a world that has gone side ways (at least in the corner of it that you can observe)? Some natural events are pretty easy to visualize, such as hurricanes, tsunamis and out of control wild fires. But these are actually localized evacuations and not ‘bug outs.’ In these events you can reasonably expect that first responders will flow into your area quickly. They will be followed by state and federal agencies with varying degrees of timeliness and effectiveness.
Disaster relief funding will be appropriated, insurance companies will write you a check to repair or rebuild and, eventually, you will be able to move back into your property. In other words, the massive infrastructures of local, state and federal governments will have continued to function throughout the disaster. All’s well that ends well, right?
But, what if there weren’t going to be any first responders? What if state and federal governments were overwhelmed by the scale of the disaster, or if they effectively ceased to exist at the very moment of the event? In some SHTF scenarios those conditions might prevail and you simply haven’t learned of it yet. So, here you are in your dark home, with no water. You’ve burned the last chair from your dining room set to keep warm and you haven’t seen any neighbors for more than two weeks. Maybe it’s time to go, but you aren’t really sure.
If you find it difficult to articulate the conditions under which you would be willing to bug out, you aren’t alone. That difficulty is compounded by generally vague SHTF/TEOTWAWKI scenarios and a lack of meaningful decision trigger points. What are the differences between an inconvenient, undesirable situation and one that has become intolerable and possibly life threatening? Can you make such a decision with the full knowledge that no “mulligan” will be issued if you get it wrong, that once you step outside the door of your home, it may be for the last time?
For purposes of this discussion, I make the following important distinctions between evacuation and bugging out:
An evacuation is accompanied with the reasonable expectation that you will be able to return to your residence in the foreseeable future. It means not only that you are leaving a place under imminent threat, but that you are evacuating to a known place of safety where aid can be provided by a still-functioning government or the charity of others. An evacuation means that rule of law and its consequences continue to apply across the entire spectrum of society and that there has been no suspension of Constitutional rights. Your primary concern may be as simple as finding a motel that hasn’t turned on its “No Vacancy” sign.
Bugging out means that you have no reasonable expectation of returning. It means that sheltering in place in a post-SHTF environment has failed as a strategy and has become more dangerous to your survival than bugging out. Rule of law may no longer be respected or enforceable. It also means that no one can guarantee a safe route of passage or a safe destination. Finally, it means that you have no guarantee of receiving aid; that acquiring essential food, water, shelter and security are entirely dependent upon your ability. In other words, you are on your own.
With two exceptions (#22 and #23), all of the questions that follow are independent of any specific type of SHTF event. Instead, they deal with conditions and information that will help determine whether or when you need to bug out. The list is by no means complete; you are welcome to add questions that pertain more directly to your own environment. Rather than treat them with simple yes or no answers, consider the degrees of risk that may develop as time progresses.
As you work through the list it will become evident that answers to multiple questions can lead to a more complete understanding of your situation and the world around you. Having many data points is more reliable than basing a decision on a single piece of potentially flawed information.
Running From Fire
The questions deal with specific aspects of public safety, public or government infrastructure, your own resources, or conditions in your immediate area or region. There are no redundant questions. For reasons that should be obvious, this article assumes that you have already made some level of preparation to bug out.
(1) Can you defend your home?
Understanding the defensive limitations of your home and property should be the prime factor in determining whether and when to bug out before it ever becomes necessary to do so. The stark reality is that the vast majority of residences are not designed or constructed for defense. Windows, sliding glass doors and wood or stucco exteriors will not stop a bullet or a determined intruder, and some calibers can penetrate cement block walls. In the typical suburban setting, with small property lots and walled in back yards, the defensive field of view is extremely limited. Without some form of perimeter security you may face the prospect of repelling armed looters that have already entered your home.
Can you maintain a visual awareness of approaching threats around the clock?
Can you maintain this level of awareness for days or weeks?
Is your concept of defense dependent upon distance?
In other words, can you tolerate a potential threat that is 1 mile or only 200 yards away? What if there is an existential threat standing on the other side of your front door?
Objectively accessing your ability to stop looters outside your residence is a paramount consideration, regardless how defensible you think the interior may be. Importantly, ask yourself if you would be able to prevent or defend against simultaneous entries from multiple points in your house.
A low probability of success (intrusion prevention) is an obvious red flag. That doesn’t mean it will happen, but if you do not believe that you can prevent entry from multiple points without endangering your family or yourself, then you must conclude that your home is not defensible. If the answer is “no,” the issue now becomes whether you are willing to gamble on the outcome. Simply stated, if your home is not defensible and other factors (below) indicate an increasing risk over time, you must at least consider bugging out for your own safety.
Does your disaster preparation plan include security measures?
Another aspect of home defensibility pertains to fire. Are trees or native brush located near the structures on your property? Do you have a defensive (fuel-free) space that would prevent an uncontrolled fire from destroying your home? Could you suppress a fire without the aid of the fire department? Before you answer “yes” to this question, could you do it if there was no water?
(2) How long have you been bunkered in your residence?
The longer you remain in place the less likely you are to be factually aware of the situation unfolding around you. This is particularly true if you cannot obtain information from news networks, local radio stations, etc. Events and threats can develop rapidly. The absence of timely eye-witness or other authoritative information can mean that you are in the path of increasing danger and don’t know it.
The assurance of continued safety may require that you reconnoiter your area on a regular basis to assess current conditions. Speak with as many people as you can (safely), but you must also evaluate the other questions on this list.
If possible, set up a regular time each day to meet with neighbors to share information.
Makeshift barricades are a low-tech way of blocking or slowing access.
Makeshift barricades are a low-tech way of blocking or slowing access.
(3) Has your neighborhood been forced to erect barricades?
The erection of barricades across streets leading into your neighborhood may be a preemptory defensive measure to a perceived threat, or it could be in response to an active threat. You will need to determine which situation pertains.
If conditions are such that barricades are deemed necessary by local residents, you must at least consider that the risk to personal safety has increased to a level that warrants consideration of bugging out. In other words, if barricades are necessary, but become ineffective, your zone of safety will be greatly diminished,
(4) Are you counting on neighbors for your own security?
Is your strategy for sheltering in place dependent upon the cooperation of neighbors to maintain a degree of safety?
Do you consider that your neighbors are able (equipped, competent and physically capable) to contribute to your security?
Have you exchanged commitments (a mutual defense pact of sorts) regarding area security? Is it based upon a perceived threat level or the passage of time? In other words, does the pact hold as long as the threat is minimal? Have neighbors (or you) committed to remain in place for a limited time, such as one more week, or are you/they hanging in on a day-to-day or hour by hour basis?
Are you confident that you can patrol your neighborhood without being shot by a local resident? Think about that for a moment. How do you intend to reconnoiter your neighborhood if you have no means to communicating with each other?
(5) Have your neighbors abandoned their homes? Has your security situation improved or worsened since they left?
After the event that caused you to shelter in place, have you seen neighbors generally packing up to leave?
Have neighbors (that you were counting on for mutual defense) started leaving their homes?
Has your ability to protect your residence been degraded by the departure of others?
A sharp decline of residents in any neighborhood effectively isolates those who stay. Remaining residents are surrounded by unoccupied structures and will be unable to prevent looting and arson. In such a case it may be beneficial for remaining residents to relocate into adjacent houses where they can maintain close communication and concentrate their defenses.
(6) Are you willing and prepared to salvage supplies from residences in your area?
If you are determined to shelter in place for an extended period of time you will inevitably need something that you do not presently have or that you have run out of. The list of potential items is virtually endless, yet you may be surrounded by homes that were hastily abandoned – possessions whose owner/occupants will never reclaim. You are faced with a choice: You can inventory and salvage useful items, or you can sit back and wait for looters and scavengers to take them. Either way, it is merely a matter of time before your neighborhood will be cleaned out of anything that is useful, that may extend your life or improve your safety.
I am not advocating theft or looting. I’m talking about a world that has gone sideways; a world where rule of law has largely collapsed; where government has ceased to function; where even the declaration of martial law has no effect on the behavior of people.
If you are unwilling to salvage abandoned material, you may be hastening the day when bugging out is the only course of action remaining to you. Importantly, you will still be without the items that you needed.
Abandoned City
(7) When is the last time you saw or spoke with anyone outside your own dwelling?
Let’s look at an extreme hypothetical situation where you have been bunkered for two months in a typical suburban environment. There was an initial chaotic period where neighbors were fleeing their homes and large numbers of refugees were streaming through your area. Those numbers declined after a week, but were replaced by looters and scavengers during the next four weeks. None of your neighbors have returned and no refugees have moved into vacant structures. You have now been in place for two months and you haven’t seen a single soul in the past three weeks.
Does this mean that you’ve weathered the worst of the post-SHTF event, that you are safe? Hardly. This scenario brings us squarely to the issues of situational awareness and your sense of timing. Your decision to shelter in place means that you were neither ahead of nor in the middle of the golden hoard. They left you behind a long time ago.
Except for what you have been able to salvage or scavenge for yourself, every business and dwelling place may have been picked clean for miles in every direction. There is still no potable water, gasoline, propane, packaged food, seeds, protein on the hoof or medicines that you can find.
At some point you have to confront the concept of what it would mean to be totally alone; without the possibility of immediate or future aid. Now what? Do you have objective reason to think that your original bug out destination is still a viable option?
(8) Have you seen or been forced to repel looters?
Many major metropolitan areas provide information about the location of criminal activity via web sites. It is fairly easy to identify high crime zones, as well as the general nature of the activity (burglary, assault, homicide, etc.) by looking at an interactive map.
What distance is your home from these chronic hot spots? Are there convenient routes that would enable riots and looting to spread toward your residence if law enforcement was unable to control or contain it? How much time would it take for looters to reach your neighborhood?
In the absence of public communication you may have no knowledge of the proximity of looters to your residence. Realistically, whatever that time frame is, you have far less time to decide whether to bunker down or bug out.
Once looters enter your neighborhood your margin of safety could shrink to near zero.
When is the last time you had access to water?
(9) How long has it been since the electrical grid went down?
Local weather events and even accidents can cause power outages lasting from a few minutes to a few days, but people still go to work and shop in areas where power is available. Utility crews show up with chain saws, electrical cable, poles and transformers. Long duration outages (greater than three days) could indicate a problem that is far more widespread than your immediate locality.
From almost any high point you should be able to spot the sky glow from city lights reflecting off cloud cover at night. I can see the night glow from cities 70 miles south and 50 miles north of my location. If you are unable to see city lights in any direction, the event that caused your outage may be at least regional in scale.
The key to this issue is not the outage itself, but whether the resources (manpower and replacement gear) exist to recover from it in a time-frame that enables you to remain in your residence. Without electricity, the infrastructures that provide gasoline, natural gas, public communications and water will be inoperable. At some point, you will begin to use and deplete irreplaceable emergency supplies that you have stored in your home.
(10) How long have you been without a source of water?
The delivery of urban water depends upon electric pumps, purification plants and large capacity storage tanks to maintain pressure. Without electricity, water will cease to flow.
Here is a straightforward equation: S–C=R. If you started this event with a five-day supply of water (S) and it has been five days since water stopped flowing from your tap, then you have consumed © all that you had stored at the end of the 5th You now have zero days of water remaining ®. Conservation of your dwindling supply is irrelevant if there are no prospects that water will begin to flow from the tap. Without the ability to replenish potable water stocks, continued occupation of your residence will become untenable. If you have no source of water, neither will anyone else in your immediate area.
(11) Are you running low on your bug out supplies of food and water?
When the taps went dry, how much potable water did you have on hand (measured in days of supply) for the number of people in your residence, including water needed for food preparation and toilets?
Including cooked or uncooked foods that were refrigerated or frozen before the power grid went down, how many meals do you have available for the number of people in your residence?
Assuming that you have a bug out plan, how much of that food and water will be needed to reach your destination once you abandon your residence? Once you begin depleting your bug out resources, you will effectively be reducing your range of travel; possibly without the ability to replenish supplies along the way.
(12) Are grocery stores, gas stations, pharmacies and banks in your area open for business?
Have you ever experienced panic buying situations where shoppers strip food aisles in the face of an oncoming winter storm? There is no reason to think that a SHTF situation would not produce the same or worse behaviors, but of a greater magnitude.
If the situation is accompanied with large-scale power outages of long duration, modern commerce will effectively cease. To the extent that any purchases are possible, they will be strictly cash and carry; but the conventional sources of cash (banks) will be closed. It will not matter how much you have in your checking or savings account; you will not be able to access it or convert it to a usable form.
For anyone that is sheltering in place under such conditions, the cash and supplies that you have on hand are all that you are likely to have for the foreseeable future. Given those circumstances, you must determine when bugging out will become necessary. The key question is whether you intend to be in front of or behind the Golden Horde.
Empty Highway
(13) Has home delivery ceased?
At minimum, there are three organizations that make regular deliveries to your home or neighborhood and they are ubiquitous throughout the country: USPS mail carriers, Fedex and UPS vans. And, unless you haul your own trash, the local sanitation department will make weekly or semi-weekly stops to empty the dumpsters that you place on the curb.
If all of these services have ceased it could be that your area is no longer considered safe for employees to enter. This could be a localized or temporary issue, in which case there will be other indicators to help with your assessment of risk.
The absence of mail and package delivery may also be caused by other factors, such as the collapse of regional or national logistics systems that rely on air and ground transportation, massive sorting centers and, of course, data processing and communications.
A build up of trash at your residence (while other houses have none) will indicate that it is still occupied, that you are sheltering in place, and that you have some level of resources, such as food and water. Can you conceal or bury trash while sheltering place?
(14) Have you seen any long-haul freight carriers operating on highways?
Freight transporters cannot function without fuel, communications and logistics. If tractor-trailer rigs aren’t moving in and out of depots, are piling up at truck stops or are sitting on the side of the road, there has been a major breakdown in the transport/supply system.
Many businesses rely on “just in time” delivery for merchandise, including food, by using real-time inventory control systems and automatic low order restocking points. If the order cannot be fulfilled, if the distribution center cannot load freight onto a truck, or if the truck cannot roll, the supply line will back up – but not at your merchant’s back door. Material will be stuck in distribution centers, at the producer’s plant, or may be rotting in a farm field. Consequently, supply chains will quickly fail.
Looting and other forms of civil disorder are likely to occur within hours and could quickly become widespread. Initial looting targets are almost always retail stores. The next likely targets would be distribution centers and other types of supply warehouses. Common sense suggests that freight haulers will not enter areas where civil disturbances are uncontrolled.
In Part 2, we will examine the remaining questions that you should evaluate when before making a decision to bug out.
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Hard Decisions: Knowing When to Bug Out – Pt. 2
By Bolo on July 11, 2015@prepperjournal
Editor’s Note: This article is the second in a two-part series that was generously contributed by Bolo on knowing when to bug out. In this second article, Bolo continues laying out a large number of triggers that could signal to you that it may be time to gather the family, pack up your bug out bags and leave everything behind for your family’s safety. When that day comes will you know when it’s time to go? Will you be ready?
In Part 1, we examined subjects that pertain largely to safety issues in your home and neighborhood, as well as commerce and certain types of services and infrastructures that you depend upon. In this concluding segment we will look at additional infrastructures and the conditions that may generally prevail throughout the area where you live. It is worthwhile to repeat that the more information you have, the more likely you are to make effective and timely decisions.
(15) Have news networks broadcast official advisories or orders to evacuate your residence, town or city?
Public safety warnings are an indication that government is (or was) operational at some level at the time of the announcement. Were these notices issued before you decided to bunker down? If yes, have subsequent advisories/orders been issued, updated or cancelled? Or have you heard no further updates?
Are the messages prerecorded statements on continuous replay or are they live broadcasts? In other words, is anyone at home at the station?
General orders to evacuate your area following SHTF are a clear indication that local government (at minimum) is not able to protect you from a recognized or developing threat. You are, in effect, on your own and a decision to remain in place may become increasingly untenable.
AM/FM NOAA Emergency Crank Radio with Solar Power Panel – Makes a great survival supply to have on hand.
(16) Can you pick up any AM or FM radio station on a battery/solar-powered radio? If yes, how far away is it?
If the local radio stations that you normally listen to are off the air, the area affected by the event could have a radius of 50 to 100 miles.
A few AM band radio stations have sufficient radiated power to be heard from a distance of several hundred miles when atmospheric conditions are favorable, or if you are on elevated terrain. If you are unable to pick up these distant stations then the affected area is at least regional in scale and may have affected most of the country.
If you have a spool of speaker wire (50 to 100 feet), you can rig an external antenna to a battery-powered AM/FM radio to extend your reception range. I have picked up radios stations (those with even modest radiated power) from distances as great as 500 miles using this technique. AM stations with very high power, such as KOMA (1520 kHz) can be picked up from distances exceeding 800 miles.
Your ability (or lack thereof) to pick up distant commercial radio stations can inform you of the scale of the event you are dealing with.
(17) Are you able to receive official alerts on emergency and/or 2-way radios?
NOAA weather reports are broadcast on six frequencies in the 162.400 to 162.525 MHz range on the VHF band. Bulletins are broadcast from nearly 1,000 stations around the country, but are issued from central locations, such as the principal National Weather Service facility in your area (which may not be in your state). For example, Wyoming presently has 21 NOAA transmitters, but broadcasts originate from only five locations, of which three are in different states (Montana, Utah and South Dakota).
Why is this important? If you are in an area that ordinarily receives NOAA broadcasts, but you are now unable to pick up the alerts, the transmitter station could be without power or the broadcast station may no longer be in service (or both). For example, broadcasts for central Wyoming originate in Rapid City South Dakota. The power outage that you are experiencing may cover a large region.
Transmitter coverage area is dependent upon station location, effective radiated power and terrain. For station locations, output power and coverage maps in your state, see: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/coverage/sta...sting.html
No Phone Service
If your phone shows no signal then all towers within your range are down.
(18) Does your cell phone or land line still work?
All cell phones indicate the strength of signal they are receiving from the nearest operational tower. If your phone shows no signal then all towers within your range are down.
Land line phones connect to a local central office (CO) which, in turn, is connected to a Point of Presence (POP) facility where calls and communications circuits are aggregated. If there is no dial tone then there is either a break in circuit continuity between your phone and the CO; or the Central Office is, itself, no longer operational.
By itself, the absence of dial tone does not indicate the scale of the problem (whether local, regional or national). A simultaneous outage of land lines and cell phones certainly indicates a severe localized failure, but it still does not tell you anything about the actual scale. The longer both types of communication remain inoperative the probability increases that the scale of the outage is at least regional.
(19) How many hours or days have passed since you saw or spoke with law enforcement personnel in your area?
If you have been sheltering in place for several days and not seen or spoken with law enforcement officers in your neighborhood, it is possible that your locality is not immediately threatened by civil disorder. However, it could also mean that all available police are busy dealing with public safety issues in other portions of your community. The worst possible scenario is that they have bunkered down or bugged out to protect their own families.
If it is possible to do so safely, quickly reach out to local police. They would want to know current conditions in your neighborhood, even though they may not be able to provide direct protection. Of all people who you may come in contact with, local police are most likely to know current and evolving situations and to be sympathetic to your situation.
The national ratio of police officers (in the field) to citizens generally ranges between one and two per 1,000. Frankly, a SHTF event and its aftermath could easily overwhelm law enforcement resources. They may be busy protecting fire fighters who are trying to prevent arson caused fires from reaching your neighborhood.
If local police have been augmented by officers from outlying communities, Sheriffs Deputies, state DPS officers or National Guard, this may indicate that civil disorder has become an imminent threat and is moving in your direction.
The protracted absence of law enforcement in your area is not, I think, a very good sign. Without phone service, police will not be able to respond to 911 calls for help. Without radio communications, they will not be able to communicate with each other.
The total and continued absence of police presence in your area, especially without augmentation by external law enforcement resources, may indicate that local authority, including the capacity to govern, is not assured. It worst, it could indicate a collapse of local or state government.
You must consider the degree to which your continued safety in residence is dependent upon local law enforcement.
When was the last time you saw a fire department vehicle or ambulance in your immediate area?
(20) When was the last time you saw a fire department vehicle or ambulance in your immediate area?
If you have no water, the fire hydrants in your area will also be dry. This would require engine companies to pump water from wells or local lakes or rivers. Their ability to respond to and suppress fires in a timely manner will be degraded, to say the least.
Where is the nearest FD station to your residence? If local 911 emergency services are not working, can you safely determine whether the station remains staffed and operational?
Are there areas in your community where firefighters are requiring the protection of police? Are there areas where the fire department can not, or will not, enter for reasons of safety?
In the absence of fire department protection, civil disorder takes on an entirely different dimension. No rational distinction can be made between a looter and a potential arsonist from the perspective of safety. (Think Baltimore and Ferguson.) If you and your local fire department are unable to suppress a fire, and uncontrolled fires are already occurring in your community, you must consider bugging out.
(21) Have strangers stopped at your residence seeking food, water or shelter?
Countless acts of compassion and charity occur around us and across the world every day. Sadly, so do acts of violence, brutality and savagery. Regardless of your capacity to aid refugees, you should at least consider trading assistance for information. Where are they coming from? How long have they been on the move before reaching your area? Where are they headed, and why? If you want to think of that as a transaction, it might be worth allowing them a safe place to rest, an opportunity to refill a canteen, or a meal. From a purely selfish standpoint, information that you might obtain from refugees will provide useful information about conditions in your region.
Importantly, what you can learn from these poor souls may also save your life. A map and a box of stick pins can help you visualize the scale of the SHTF event that you are facing. Did the last passers-by depart their home (perhaps from a distance of 100 miles) five days ago? What route did they take? What conditions did they witness while en route? Have they encountered hostile actions? Are they barely ahead of armed gangs?
Information that enables you to objectively assess current or pending threat conditions is invaluable; it may be vital in determining if/when you will need to bug out.
(22) Have all battery-powered electronic devices (laptops, cell phones, two-way radios, GPS units, etc.) ceased working?
This question is not about whether you forgot to charge your personal electronic devices; rather, were they working before the event, but not after? Change out the batteries to confirm if they will operate. If they are still inoperable you may be seeing the consequence of an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP).
If you were planning to take or use any of these tools when you bug out, they may now be useless, and it is too late to learn how to build a simple, but effective, Faraday Cage that would have saved your gear.
The loss of public power can be compensated (for a time) by using portable generators or solar voltaic systems. However, if your personal electronics have been rendered useless, you must determine how it will affect your decision to shelter in place versus bugging out.
(23) Can you start the engine on your vehicle(s)? Are any vehicles moving – anywhere?
To my knowledge, the simultaneous failure of all motor vehicles can only indicate that an EMP event has occurred. It would be accompanied by a widespread failure of the electrical grid. Any device that relies on computer chips will likely cease to operate if they are not EMP hardened. With the possible exception of military, this would presumably include any aircraft in flight or on the ground, and any commuter rail systems that rely on electricity.
An EMP event means that you will be on foot while bugging out. As indicated by #22 above, you will also be without electronic communications and navigation devices unless they were protected in advance.
How would an EMP affect your bug out plans? Would the loss of motorized transportation and communications accelerate, delay or terminate your departure? Why?
Mass evacuations are a recipe for massive traffic jams.
(24) Are nearby major traffic arteries blocked by abandoned vehicles?
Mass evacuations are a recipe for massive traffic jams. Although the nearest Interstate highway may be a significant distance from your residence, nearby major traffic arteries may first become congested and then blocked. Accidents and vehicles running out of gas will merely compound the problem, eventually forcing people to strike out on foot. If such an event has already occurred and you have been sheltering in place for days or weeks, you need to remain informed about traffic conditions. For example, are vehicles being cleared by tow trucks, or have conditions remained unchanged?
Obviously, the longer highways remain unusable, the underlying situation remains unresolved. If you decide to bug out, you must accept that many thousands of people are well ahead of you and many thousands more may be behind you.
(25) When is the last time you saw or heard the sound of a helicopter or other aircraft?
The federal government can, in cases of national emergency, order the grounding of civilian and commercial aircraft; as happened on 9-11, 2001.
You may recall that eerie period of several days when there were no contrails in the sky or private aircraft practicing touch and go landings at local airports. If you are able to observe or hear aircraft in flight, it will be important to determine whether they are civilian, commercial, public safety, medical evacuation, military or “other.” The distinction is important because it can inform you about the situation in your area.
A prolonged absence of civilian and commercial aircraft almost certainly means that a national security threat of some type has been declared. Conversely, the resumption of this type of traffic indicates an improvement over previous conditions.
Commonly seen rotary wing aircraft (other than privately owned) are generally composed of law enforcement, medical evacuation, public safety, commuter taxis, radio/TV traffic reporting and non-military federal agencies (such as Border Patrol, DEA and FBI, etc). That is a wide array of groups, but all of them could be mustered for support service in times of emergency. If you are seeing (or hearing) helicopters in your area it will mean that government is functioning at some level, but it does not mean that conditions are safe or normal.
Military aircraft are easy to identify by sight and sound. If transport aircraft, such as C-5, C-17, C-130 variants and Ospreys are operating in your area, you may reasonably infer that supplies or troops are being transported to or from an airport in your vicinity. If you are seeing heavy lift rotary wing aircraft, such as CH-53, Chinook and Blackhawk helicopters, or smaller UH “Huey” helicopters ferrying troops or supplies, there may be tactical military operations in your area. The presence of attack helicopters (not previously seen), such as Apache and Cobra, especially if they are carrying ordnance, may mean that our military is engaged in countering acts of lawlessness or aggression.
At the most extreme, a complete and continued absence of traffic, regardless of type, could mean that air traffic control systems (such as FAA radars) are not operational or that the aircraft themselves have become inoperable.
Coming to a town near you?
(26) Have roadblocks or checkpoints been established on public streets or highways your area?
For purposes of this discussion, a roadblock is comprised of portable devices used for the temporary closure of a road and is normally accompanied by flashing yellow lights mounted on collapsible saw-horses and signage that says “Street Closed,” or “Road Flooded,” etc. A roadblock can be quickly set and removed by highway crews or police. A checkpoint is, in effect, a roadblock that has been set to stop and interrogate travelers.
Checkpoints may be for a variety of purposes, but in a SHTF situation, they could be used to screen individuals, check for (or confiscate) weapons, or provide directions to hospitals, food and shelter. In other words, a checkpoint would likely be manned by armed law enforcement or military personnel.
If roadblocks are being set up in your area, it may be to channel vehicular and/or foot traffic along a desired route – one that enables police to provide some measure of control and security. Checkpoints may not be nearly as benign. If at all possible, determine in advance their nature and purpose before you bug out. The purpose of both types will help inform you about current conditions, as well as any alterations necessary for a successful bug out route.
(27) Can you see smoke from structure fires in any direction?
The sighting of any fire, whether far or near, should be of concern in the aftermath of SHTF. If you are bunkered in, your view to the horizon may be measured in blocks (or even feet) rather than miles.
Without public communications you may have no awareness of the cause (such as looting/arson), and you may have limited warning of the extent or direction in which fires are moving. It is essential that you have a plan for responding to the threat of fire, regardless of its cause.
(28) Are you hearing the sound of gunfire or explosions?
If the answer to question #1 was no and the answer to this question is yes, then you have probably reached a situation where bugging out is no longer safe and sheltering in place has become even more dangerous.
Is the gunfire sporadic or sustained? From your vantage point, is it concentrated in a small area or is it widespread? Can you reliably judge the distance and direction of movement? Can you reliably judge the amount of time you have to depart your home?
A lot of factors can work against your ability to detect weapons fire (particularly small arms) at distances greater than one-half mile. Terrain and urban structures can block the transmission of sound. Weather conditions (especially rain and buffeting wind) can muffle distant sounds.
Your preferred route of departure may have become blocked. Do you have more than one route from your dwelling place that can provide cover while you put distance between the threat and your family?
(29) Has martial law been declared?
If martial law has been declared, your constitutionally guaranteed rights and liberties, including freedom of movement, may no longer exist in the eyes of government. The supervision of law enforcement by the judiciary will have been suspended. Without redress, you can be forcefully removed from your home. You may be forced to surrender your property (real and personal), including any food stocks, firearms and ammunition that you posses.
Section 1031 of the National Defense Authorization Act, passed by Congress in 2012, effectively repealed the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. As a legal matter, the declaration of martial law is no longer limited to the threat of invasion or rebellion, or by a threat to public safety, as required in Article 1 Section 9 of the US Constitution.
The question you must resolve is whether the implications of martial law, as well as the conditions and justifications under which they were imposed, represent a direct threat to continued safety and survival as you shelter in place.
An important consideration is whether you believe that a declaration of martial law is something that you are willing to comply with. For it to be effective it must be enforceable. Are you unwilling to comply?
(30) Are police or other government personnel conducting house clearing operations in your area? Are people being forcefully removed from their homes?
Depending on conditions, you may have little or no warning that citizens are being systematically forced to vacate their residences.
If uniformed teams (police/military or unfamiliar paramilitary units) are moving house to house through your neighborhood, the question may not be whether you will be forced to leave, but if you can depart with your possessions ahead of a forced removal. Bugging out may be the only option you have to avoid “resettlement” to a place other than your choosing, and at the expense of your freedom. If operations of this nature are occurring in your area, you may have very little time to make a decision.
Conclusion
Making a decision to shelter in place after a SHTF event is not as straightforward or simple as you might have expected. Importantly, deciding to abandon your residence – a place that you hoped would provide a base of supplies and relative safety – is no easy matter either. Nor should it be. Hopefully, an objective analysis of the conditions that you may one day have to deal with will make you better prepared for any eventuality.
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