and what are you prepping for?
According to the National Risk Register of civil emergencies, the top 4 for 2015 are as follows:
1. Pandemic Influenza.
2. Coastal Flooding.
3. Widespread Electrical Failure....we could have told them that one.
4. Catastrophic Terrorist Attacks.....notice the plural.
(27 September 2015, 14:09)bigpaul Wrote: [ -> ]and what are you prepping for?
According to the National Risk Register of civil emergencies, the top 4 for 2015 are as follows:
1. Pandemic Influenza.
2. Coastal Flooding.
3. Widespread Electrical Failure....we could have told them that one.
4. Catastrophic Terrorist Attacks.....notice the plural.
1. Not much I can do about that, but I live in a sparsely populated area which might help.
2. Won't affect my home, could affect my work though - I'm a boat builder.
3. As 2, I have generators and fuel to run electronics and freezers, and solid fuel heating that doesn't need electricity. Would affect my work severely unless I took my generators to work.
4. Probably won't affect me, unless the terrorists want to scare the UK by blowing up sheep.
I note that the Risk Register ignores the elephant in the room - the fact that the economy could collapse.
The Utah Prepare Conference and Expo at Utah State University held some great classes among which was “The Realities, Response, and Recovery From EMP” taught by Jim Phillips, an Electronics Technician, Certified Nuclear Power Plant Operator, Standards Engineer, and Industrial Engineer. He has done extensive studying of the problems of an EMP attack.
The threat from an EMP is real. Frank Gaffney spoke on this subject at a FEMA conference I attended in Washington, DC a year or so ago. It would be easy for the DPRK to deploy what looks like a harmless freighter somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, then open cargo doors and launch a missile over the central US. (Russia sold the North Koreans and Chinese ships with this capability.) Apparently, the US has no missile defense south of the Great Lakes in the lower 48.
Intelligence assessments indicate there is a strong possibility that the US will suffer a devastating EMP attack within the next 15 years. A nuclear explosion set off 30 miles above the geographic center of the United States would take out about a dozen states. One detonated 300 hundred miles about the center would take out most of the US and most of Canada except for Hawaii and Alaska. A well-placed EMP attack could successfully destroy the entire power grid for the continental United States as well as parts of Canada and Mexico. Because many of the larger transformers and other components are manufactured in China and other overseas locations, the power grid would be down for years.
If a similar EMP attack were launched over Western Europe, you could look forward to a similar scenario in UK. An EMP would affect us in many other ways besides the power grid. Food and medical supplies would immediately start to become in short supply and gradually disappear. The majority of automobiles and other motor vehicles manufactured since 1980 may fail to operate. Test conducted by the US government of public safety vehicles manufactured between 1980 and 2002, showed that many having more robust shielding, not found in vehicles produced for the civilian market could be restarted. The problem is that this was a limited today’s energy efficient cars have much more electronics.
Older cars made before 1980 with points and condenser ignition, without onboard computers would probably run, but Gaffney suggests having a spare starter coil and condenser on hand, just in case. Gasoline would be available from cars damaged by the EMP attack, but once this source ran out, there would be no more deliveries. With the power grid down and most vehicles not running, conditions would be very much like those described in the book One Second After by William R Forstchen.
While this is a fictionalized version of an EMP attack, it does describe the aftereffects well. You may want to take the time to read it. Many small electronic devices using field effect transistors (FETs) will fail if not protected in faraday cages. Batteries should survive without any problems. Faraday need to be a complete enclosure with no opening.
Here is a list of items people try to use for cages.
Shipping containers will not work because of their wooden floors.
Metal sheds with grounding will not provide any protection.
Microwave ovens will not provide adequate protection, even though they will block radio waves. A nuclear device that has been optimized to produce EMP will generate waves a million times that of a radio transmission.
Metal trash bins may not be thick enough metal to be reliable.
Mylar bags will not work.
Military specification "Tempest" enclosures and equipment bags will work
I would suggest doubling all your faraday cages. But don’t make the mistake of not making an effort to protect your critical electronics, medical devices, battery chargers, inverters, etc. A nuclear device may not function as designed, or may go astray and miss its targeted area. While it is true that information that we are getting may be wrong, intelligence estimates error on the side of safety. The sad thing is that the government knows exactly what we need to do to protect ourselves from an EMP attack and does not provide the public with that information, because they don't want to start a panic.
I am sure our enemies know it, so why can’t we?
Put simply .....i have to.....for what ?....does not matter that much to me....take your pick...there are loads of scenarios.....FACT....i am as ready as i,ll ever be....have i covered everything ...nope....have you ?
OK lets try it this way, are you prepared for the following or don't you think they will happen? in no particular order:
power blackouts.
union strikes.
shortages in the shops.
financial downturn.
redundancies and layoffs.
breakup of the EU.
migrant influx and overload.
terrorist attacks.
refuse uncollected and piling up in the streets.
anarchy protests.
riots in the streets.
withdrawal of all police from our streets.
societal collapse.
W.R.O.L.
maybe I should have added a poll to see what people were actually prepping for, might have made things a bit clearer.
I see anarchy and protests are already happening in East London, also gang murders(Daily Mail today).
Most likely scenarios I can see here are:
Resource shortage: water, fuel, transportation interruption of grocery deliveries, fuel, etc. Had all of these at least short term basis since 9/11
Weather emergencies: winter storm, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, have has ALL of these in the last few years.
Man-made disasters:, HAZMAT release, terrorism, civil unrest, crime increases from influx of illegal immigrants, have had all of these.
Economic hardships: Thanks to Obama's energy policies West Virginia has the highest unemployment in the US, currently 7.6%, there are places in Europe which are far worse, so I tell people to count their blessings and be glad they aren't in Spain or Italy....
Wildfires: Not experienced locally, but is a problem in some areas.
Therefore, an "All Hazards" planning approach based on your local hazard analysis and risk assessment is best.
These are more likely than zombies or space alien invasion.
If you were to reverse this thread and pose the question WHY ARE YOU NOT PREPPING ? to the people we call sheeple.....now that would be interesting .....the fact is....all on here are prepping for not just one single thing....all on the list are relevant scenarios if the thread is about an analysis of what YOU think most likely ...then my answer would be financial collapse of the global system...then followed by ALL the rest of the list ....weather you like it on not you will be forced into all scenarios anyway.
Going back to @BP's original post. Examination of the National Risk Ref Register 2015 ..
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/sy..._Final.pdf
... shows the following
Pandemic Flu - between 1 in 2 to 1 in 20 chance /// Level 5 Catastrophic - around half the population affected with up to 750000 additional deaths (I think this is on the low side but that is just the UK)
Widespead Electricity Failure has moved from its usual place in major industrial outages to a cetegory all of its own --- They have woken up -- Risk 1 in 20 to 1 in 200 --- with severity scale of 4 - Extremly serious.
A Catostrophic Terrorist incident has a medium low risk but obviously catostophic.
Attacks on Transport Systems is seen to be High but only with a relative impact of 3 (out of 5)
Attacks in crowded places is seen to be medium high wigth a relative impact of 3 (out of 5)
So .... my personal takeaway from this is that Pandemic or Emerging Infectious Disease is Number 1 risk followed by the Electricity. My own plans are for isolation in case of disease/flu and gennys / inverters for the leccy
Onwards and upwards ......
I am trying to become as useful/future proof as I can and trying to cover as many angles as possible. I 'll have a pretty good knowledge of sustainable agriculture and food production by the end of next year, as well as a transferable degree If I can find employment abroad.
The church I belong to also contains lots of medical professionals, who are also familiar with the idea of fleeing to the wilderness when SHTH and staying fit and healthy through diet and exercise. The idea of moving out into a rural area and being self sufficient is very supported. They are the kind of people I would want to team up with.
I am preparing for:
- A slow slide scenario, where things continue to get worse and worse very slowly as they are now. This scares me because the government in this scenario is unpredictable and dangerous and it would be hard to stay quiet and off their radar
- 2008 crash on steroids, maybe with the derivatives bubble popping, general financial ragnarok, leading to a general breakdown of law, order and infrastructure with permanent consequences for an unknown length of time.
To be honest I don't get too specific with my prepping, it comes out of a general pessimism for the medium to long term future.