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+--- Thread: assume or not to assume? (/showthread.php?tid=5990)
assume or not to assume? - Prepper1 - 16 September 2013
Theres an old saying "chance favors the prepared mind" Louis Pasteur.
I know we all have differing views on what will happen post collapse up to the point of fisticuffs.......
BUT the one thing that makes us preppers is that we are prepared.
Post collapse is unknown to us yet but we can and have to make assumptions about it otherwise we wouldn't have plans and
wouldn't know what to do.
The one thing we should all remain is open minded to ALL possibilities.
We must not shut our minds to even the most outlandish theory, we must look at it, assimilate it and put it somewhere on our list.
It must however be on our list no matter what it is, even if its at the bottom of "least likely to ever happen"
Because that way if it on the list we consider it and it remains in our mind instead of being dismissed out of hand.
Preppers are noted for being prepared.
Dismissing things is not only not preparing to fail, it's downright fool hardy.
Even if your fairly well isolated and protected, make plans for felling trees over roads and or some sort of barricades to stop traffic make sure you can move them in case you need to drive out.
For example chavs and their ilk and indeed the great unprepared in general may well stay put waiting for the government to step up and do the knight in shining Armour bit.
But for how long? you must have seen those druggies so skinny that skeletons look obese compared to them, they can walk miles and miles...
and they're constantly hungry because they dont eat much... well heroin excluded...
Would they walk anywhere and how far assuming there no transportation and or the road arteries are blocked.
If you say that people fan out from a city or town in a circle like a shock wave which they wouldn't they'd likely head for the closest habitation by road but for this example assume they do.
Whats the distance you'd expect very hungry people to walk before they gave up and let fate do its business.
one, two, ten miles?
Fit as a fiddle you could probably do 25 miles a day, IF you were fit watered and well fed.
But that defeats the point of the question, because if you were fit and well fed you wouldn't be going anywhere would you?
So unfit chavs, sheeple for want of a better word wondering about looking for food at whatever point, I'd say maximum two to three weeks, if that long, as they have or can scavenge two to three weeks food up to go with the stella maybe a month tops from local corner shops etc...
Now we can probably say food distribution centers, such as wincanton, costco etc would be hit within the first month, after all that's not too far for them to walk as there usually nearby to urban areas and they have some sort of trolleys for getting the food home.
So on your local map and using the internet mark off all these places, are they near you if so you better watch out, because after a while when these places are empty and the "cheeple" (cross between chavs and sheeple) are hungry the nearest houses will be targeted.
Then the houses on the way back to where they live, dont forget to mark off local council estates, also not forgetting what type of council estate.
Some are danger zones post shtf such as ones occupied by younger people others such as retirement housing obviously not so dangerous maybe...
I'm sure a lot of us have maps with points of interest marked such as lumber yards etc...
Make sure you mark of points to avoid as well, like on the maps of millitary firing ranges put a circle around them and out of ten give them a threat rating and mark that on as well so you dont forget.
We have to assume that after say two months max after these local supply warehouses such as previously said costco etc are "liberated" that the hunt for food further afield may start.
So so far we can say that after about three months, some people will have died off, some wont.
How many?
Well look for example at the ratio of o.a.p's in your area, see if you can find any information regarding old and disabled people i.e. numbers.
we can assume these will mostly be dead, not all but most as some will have family, younger family looking out for them.
Now, cheeple wise I think you can assume at the three month mark there will be little die off, because of all the food available this is of course assuming again, they'll probably off a few of each other fighting over food but not many..
Again look around where you live, research this by going for walks, driving around looking for the "bad" neighborhoods and noting names of estates and marking them on your map dont put yourself in danger doing this by the way, that's just silly, you may already know a few by reputation.
Looking at council websites and such you can also find out population density's of areas, the size of relevant age groups or as I say threat groups.
We could assume threat levels for age groups as well such as 12 years old to 60 years old major threat level younger and older than this maybe not so, although kids and oldies can carry guns and shoot so....
The trouble is you cant write off old people as a poor threat completely because an old guy or lady hiding around a corner with surprise spade attack can end you as quick as a flash.
So can the disabled guy in the wheelchair your thinking of walking past because he's an ex marine with a machete hidden under his blanket...
So even though this articles full of assumptions you can see just how dangerous assumptions can be.
Assumptions therefore must be prioritized as well.
For example if you assume people will sit in place and die, what if they dont?
Would that have any affect on you and your plans?
If it were reversed and you were assuming for hoards of people coming your way and they didn't would that affect you?
If you walked past that disabled guy and he did nothing but beg would that affect you?
If he stabbed you in the thigh would it affect your plans?
The moral of this story is that some assumptions have little or no effect on us and our plans, some do.
As a prepper and wiser than the average cheeple, assuming assuming can get you killed but we never the less have to do it.
So think about all outcomes from your assumptions, even if you dont think it could happen, give it some thought about what if it did.
RE: assume or not to assume? - bigpaul - 16 September 2013
having decided after 10 years of living there that we should move from Glastonbury....because there were more and more houses being built on any tiny scrap of land, the population was increasing-people coming in from outside and then to cap it all they decided to build a 3rd reactor at Hinckley Point...we don't like nuclear and don't trust it....the time had come to move back home to DEVON...where our families come from in the first place....the next thing was where? eventually we were offered a swap(housing association) to a property we had seen 4 years previously in a small market town in North Devon with a population of only 1,300 and no major industrial premises within miles. the nearest nuclear power station is back in Somerset, the only 2 cities in Devon are 30 and 40 miles away and both have Dartmoor in between them and us. the nearest (LARGE) population centres are 25 miles away ...north, east and south.....nothing much west until you fall into the Atlantic Ocean! no military bases within 30 miles of us and even those are small affairs, just housing some married quarters and logistics. the whole point of this ramble
is that we just didn't move here willy nilly without thought but it was picked for exactly WHERE it was and for what it DIDNT have near it rather than what it did have. TBH I don't think there is much here that any rabble coming out from a city would want....even if they COULD walk here(and how long would that take your normal unfit person that usually drives everywhere?) its mostly hill farming country around here.
RE: assume or not to assume? - Barneyboy - 16 September 2013
(16 September 2013, 17:06)bigpaul Wrote: having decided after 10 years of living there that we should move from Glastonbury....because there were more and more houses being built on any tiny scrap of land, the population was increasing-people coming in from outside and then to cap it all they decided to build a 3rd reactor at Hinckley Point...we don't like nuclear and don't trust it....the time had come to move back home to DEVON...where our families come from in the first place....the next thing was where? eventually we were offered a swap(housing association) to a property we had seen 4 years previously in a small market town in North Devon with a population of only 1,300 and no major industrial premises within miles. the nearest nuclear power station is back in Somerset, the only 2 cities in Devon are 30 and 40 miles away and both have Dartmoor in between them and us. the nearest (LARGE) population centres are 25 miles away ...north, east and south.....nothing much west until you fall into the Atlantic Ocean! no military bases within 30 miles of us and even those are small affairs, just housing some married quarters and logistics. the whole point of this ramble
they would be half dead by the time they got to you pal
RE: assume or not to assume? - bigpaul - 16 September 2013
(16 September 2013, 17:55)Barneyboy Wrote:(16 September 2013, 17:06)bigpaul Wrote: having decided after 10 years of living there that we should move from Glastonbury....because there were more and more houses being built on any tiny scrap of land, the population was increasing-people coming in from outside and then to cap it all they decided to build a 3rd reactor at Hinckley Point...we don't like nuclear and don't trust it....the time had come to move back home to DEVON...where our families come from in the first place....the next thing was where? eventually we were offered a swap(housing association) to a property we had seen 4 years previously in a small market town in North Devon with a population of only 1,300 and no major industrial premises within miles. the nearest nuclear power station is back in Somerset, the only 2 cities in Devon are 30 and 40 miles away and both have Dartmoor in between them and us. the nearest (LARGE) population centres are 25 miles away ...north, east and south.....nothing much west until you fall into the Atlantic Ocean! no military bases within 30 miles of us and even those are small affairs, just housing some married quarters and logistics. the whole point of this ramble
they would be half dead by the time they got to you pal
that's IF they even made it! and zombies I can deal with!
RE: assume or not to assume? - Scythe13 - 16 September 2013
I get what you're saying P1.
As SD said to me when we last met up, prepare for the worst case scenario at all times, and then hope it doesn't happen. That old man in the wheelchair....suicide bomber, as far as I'm concerned!!! Staying WELL AWAY!!!!
RE: assume or not to assume? - Prepper1 - 16 September 2013
(16 September 2013, 19:10)Scythe13 Wrote: I get what you're saying P1.Thats no way to talk about SD "old man in a wheelchair, suicide bomber"
As SD said to me when we last met up, prepare for the worst case scenario at all times, and then hope it doesn't happen. That old man in the wheelchair....suicide bomber, as far as I'm concerned!!! Staying WELL AWAY!!!!
.....
RE: assume or not to assume? - Scythe13 - 16 September 2013
(16 September 2013, 19:37)Prepper1 Wrote:(16 September 2013, 19:10)Scythe13 Wrote: I get what you're saying P1.Thats no way to talk about SD "old man in a wheelchair, suicide bomber"
As SD said to me when we last met up, prepare for the worst case scenario at all times, and then hope it doesn't happen. That old man in the wheelchair....suicide bomber, as far as I'm concerned!!! Staying WELL AWAY!!!!
I know about his family. That man has too much to live for to be a suicide bomber. There are other people who I consider more likely candidates though ;-)
RE: assume or not to assume? - Geordie_Rob - 16 September 2013
Regarding how far people can walk.
Myself & some mates done a 100km charity walk a couple of months back in the hills & we done that in just over 22hrs. That included plenty rests. Me & 2 of my mates had done loads of training leading up to it. My other mate done virtually no training. While we all felt it by the end, we still all completed it (granted we had a lot of supplies - high calorie food & plenty water). And that was only for a few quid for charity. I imagine if our lives depended on it, we could've gone a lot further & a lot longer.
My point is, don't underestimate how far some people can walk
RE: assume or not to assume? - Tartar Horde - 16 September 2013
Fortuna favit mentat paratae Fortune favours the prepared mind
M Portius Cato
He also wrote "Roman Farm Management" that tells you everything you need to know about Running an estate/farm. Just ignore the part on slaves lol.
(16 September 2013, 23:05)Tartar Horde Wrote: Fortuna favit mentat paratae Fortune favours the prepared mind
M Portius Cato
He also wrote "Roman Farm Management" that tells you everything you need to know about Running an estate/farm. Just ignore the part on slaves lol.
Pasteur nicked it
RE: assume or not to assume? - Grumpy Grandpa - 17 September 2013
(16 September 2013, 19:10)Scythe13 Wrote: I get what you're saying P1.
As SD said to me when we last met up, prepare for the worst case scenario at all times, and then hope it doesn't happen. That old man in the wheelchair....suicide bomber, as far as I'm concerned!!! Staying WELL AWAY!!!!
Hey!! I'm listening in here..... (
)