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+--- Thread: how long after an event for things to die down (/showthread.php?tid=214)
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Lightspeed - 23 January 2012
I'm with SD and Nr on a two year possible timescale
I think its likely to take two winters of cold, starvation and disease to cull the human population, and weed out most of the scumbags. Alas, I also expect that some resourceful and resiliant, scumbags will survive, but there will hopefully be less of them, and survivor communities will have a better chance of resisting.
To stay grey for 24 months is a huge task, and will require huge commitment of resources, as well as considerable luck in avoiding being detected by raiders throughout this period.
Actually 24 months is a simplistic calculation. After the second winter, ground would still have to be prepared and crops tended until they could be hargested. Different planning is needed for different seasonal SHTF dates.
I reckon that worst case scenario is SHTF-total-infrastructure-wipe-out in spring. This scenario entails laying up some 27 months of provisions. And not just survival provisions either. Extra calories will be imperative to support the efforts needed for the Year 2 farming renaisance.
I'm now starting to look at what long storage food crop seeds to stash. I'll search this site to see ifanyone's already started to workout a plan for this.
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - bigpaul - 23 January 2012
i dont think it is possible to store enough food for 2 years, just enough for 12 months is a logistical nightmare, and in a modern 2 bed semi we just havent got the space to keep it all, i reckon once the panic has died down we can get out and go scavenging, i think thats the only way we are going to get enough to last 24-27 months, we need to use a lot and then go out and find stuff to replenish what has been used. seeds probably wont be too much of a problem, cant see many people in a pandemic or something like that, even thinking of seeds, so it'll be a raid on the garden centre or whereever after the dust has settled.
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Scythe13 - 23 January 2012
(23 January 2012, 16:46)bigpaul Wrote: seeds probably wont be too much of a problem, cant see many people in a pandemic or something like that, even thinking of seeds, so it'll be a raid on the garden centre or whereever after the dust has settled.
Come on BP, have you not ready my response to the Iran situation post? I've already tapped that garden centre! Boom! Water storage as well! Don't forget the security wire fence, and solar capabilities! You'd be shot out of luck if you went for the garden centres around here. I'd have taken everything. Even the model dinosaur! (No joke, I have seen a life size velocy raptor in the Wyvale Garden centre up near Warrington!!! HAHA, I wanted, and still do want, a model dinosaur after seeing that!)
(23 January 2012, 16:28)Lightspeed Wrote: I'm with SD and Nr on a two year possible timescale
I think its likely to take two winters of cold, starvation and disease to cull the human population, and weed out most of the scumbags. Alas, I also expect that some resourceful and resiliant, scumbags will survive, but there will hopefully be less of them, and survivor communities will have a better chance of resisting.
To stay grey for 24 months is a huge task, and will require huge commitment of resources, as well as considerable luck in avoiding being detected by raiders throughout this period.
Actually 24 months is a simplistic calculation. After the second winter, ground would still have to be prepared and crops tended until they could be hargested. Different planning is needed for different seasonal SHTF dates.
I reckon that worst case scenario is SHTF-total-infrastructure-wipe-out in spring. This scenario entails laying up some 27 months of provisions. And not just survival provisions either. Extra calories will be imperative to support the efforts needed for the Year 2 farming renaisance.
I'm now starting to look at what long storage food crop seeds to stash. I'll search this site to see ifanyone's already started to workout a plan for this.
I did a hefting post on a thread, I can't remember which, but I spoke about how 1 years worth of food would last 3 years, by breaking down everything into seasons and living off the land for the most abundant seasons. While also using that time to grow crops. When I say 'live off the land' I mainly mean things like eating plants that grow naturally in the woods and things like that. Then using your stored resources once the season changes to become a less abundant season.
Found that thread post.
http://forum.survivaluk.net/showthread.php?tid=64&page=4
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - bigpaul - 23 January 2012
good job your not round here then, mind you i know where ALL the supplies are around here in a 5 & 10 mile radius- nobody else will get a look in, they're all marked on my map
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Scythe13 - 23 January 2012
(23 January 2012, 18:23)bigpaul Wrote: good job your not round here then, mind you i know where ALL the supplies are around here in a 5 & 10 mile radius- nobody else will get a look in, they're all marked on my map
Great job mate.
I'm going to be buying some blue barrels in the next few months and stocking them right up ASAP!
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - bigpaul - 24 January 2012
buy blue barrels? heck, i know where i can "acquire" them for nothing
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Scythe13 - 24 January 2012
(24 January 2012, 10:36)bigpaul Wrote: buy blue barrels? heck, i know where i can "acquire" them for nothing
I'm not knowledged enough in the area to be able to "aquire" such items. Also, if they come cleaned and ready to use, I'm happy to pay a couple of quid for them.
Yes, I'm that lazy sometimes! haha
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - bigpaul - 24 January 2012
(24 January 2012, 14:45)Scythe13 Wrote:your are in an urban environment, maybe not so easy to obtain these things " free of charge ", i'm in a rural location surrounded by farms that are only too glad to get rid of them, they have to pay to have these things removed .(24 January 2012, 10:36)bigpaul Wrote: buy blue barrels? heck, i know where i can "acquire" them for nothing
I'm not knowledged enough in the area to be able to "aquire" such items. Also, if they come cleaned and ready to use, I'm happy to pay a couple of quid for them.
Yes, I'm that lazy sometimes! haha