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+--- Thread: how long after an event for things to die down (/showthread.php?tid=214)
how long after an event for things to die down - grumpy old man - 14 October 2011
after an event things will be up in the air for some time.
people will be lost or looting, stealing some will be hiding others gone mad
but as preper we all must have some time scale in mind when we can start to try and rebuild some sort of life start farming trying to trade and come out of hiding
in question your view of how things will happen
time for the masses to die off
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Dana - 14 October 2011
I voted 6 months. I take it this is a TEOTWAWKI scenario?
I say 6 months because people with long-term medical conditions will probably have died off by then or at least will no longer be a threat as will the very young and old. Most of the food in shops/warehouses will already have been eaten/looted. Raiders will also have taken a toll of some of the population as too would TPTB in the early stages (anti-looting etc).
Disease would have also been rampant in the first few months but as the population thins out, the diseases will also die out - they need hosts.
A lot of the local scrotes will also be in oblivion as their drugs and alchohol will have run out or they overdosed - They rarely look after themselves in a medical/health way. We would also be 85,000 people/prisoners down as they would have starved to death.
It is hard to say exactly how long without a reason for the scenario in the first place. If it was a Pandemic, if you survived, it may be only a month or two afterwards that you could start to rebuild - too many variables.
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Kenneth Eames - 14 October 2011
Yes Dana too many variables to be absolutely sure. As you said many will die and whoever survives will have to build the new society. It will be difficult without electricity, pumped water and lack of a sewage system. However, Survivalists will have learned many skills and be able to cope with the situation. It is the will to live which makes such a difference. Kenneth Eames.
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Reality Jones - 14 October 2011
I voted for a year.
One of the biggest killers after an event will be the weather, remember last winter? Now imagine it with no food or heating.
The winter was always the biggest killer in days of antiquity. i think it was the Anglo saxons who used to celebrate a time they called the 'blood month'. It was generaly around the end of October that they would bring all their livestock down from the hills and slaughter what they would need for the coming months, using the pelts for clothes and blankets and smoking and storing the meat for the harsh months ahead.
This would also be the time when they would have to make big desicions about who would survive the Winter. Because the food stocks that had been gathered through the summer months would had to be rationed. The very sick and sometimes the very old would be given nothing and would be starved into the final stages of death.
This festival is still celebrated today, we call it Halloween now and its origins have been almost forgotten. but it still a time when we all stare death in the face.
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - sc1 - 14 October 2011
I'm making plans for 6 months. Any more than that and the sheer volume of food you need to stock up on is ridiculous. Obviously it depends on the event but if it's TEOTWAWKI then I'd be looking to get seeds planted asap. 6 months down the line and you should know where you stand. I also think the first 6 months will sort the men from the boys. Anyone not prepared will be dead or dieing and those that are left will be starting to pull together to get some semblance of community restored.
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Skvez - 14 October 2011
I expect 'trouble' to ramp down rather than end which makes it hard to place a specific date on when it's 'reduced far enough'.
I voted 6 months.
People can survive for 3 months without food and most people will manage to scavange a little food from somewhere (even if they eat dogs and cats).
That will see the masses mostly die off but it will still be a very dangerous place at 6 months. Raiders will still be around and new raiders will come into existence as (the few) survivors continue to run out of food.
It may well be a generation before it's a safe to walk about unarmed and on your own as it is today (which depending on where you are isn't necessarily all that safe today).
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Skean Dhude - 14 October 2011
I voted for a year although I believe it won't be a fixed time. I believe it will take a winter to do it.
If it was to happen now as we approach winter many have food, fuel and are healthy. This would help even those unprepared to survive through winter although many would die. Then summer would see food, crops and the ability to look after yourself for most although again many would die. Finally the next winter there would be no stored food, no fuel and people would not be so healthy. That would see off the remainder of the crowd leaving only those who made the most of the growing season and/or those who prepared. That is where my 15 months figure came from.
Of course if the event happened early in the year people would have stores, fuel and be healthy and able to suppliment from the land. Coming into winter several months later would see most of them without stores and that would see most of them off.
So 6months minimum up to 15 months maximum before things settled down. A long time to be a grey man.
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - JD1 - 14 October 2011
I voted 2 years, but as mentioned above it is hard to say as it depends on what the event is. If it was a pandemic that killed millions in a short space of time then there would be more to scavenge for anyone who survived. If there was an event that screwed the infrastucture but didn't kill many people then it could drag on for years with waterborne disease (amongst many other) killing as many if not more than starvation will. It would also depend on what you mean by trying to get things going again, I expect trading between neighbours might happen fairly soon (i'll swap my cabbages for your pushbike type thing) but to get to the stage of proper trading like markets etc may take many years or decades.
The recent programs on the BBC discussing how civilisation started showed that civilisation was only possible once there was a food surplus. Until there was a surplus people spent all their time hunting and gathering enough food to try and survive. Farming was the solution originally but not too many people around now would be able to manage to grow enough food without access to modern fertilisers etc, and anyone who grows veg in their garden knows how difficult it can be even with all the modern tools and chemicals
So although I voted for 2 years, it could take many decades to get any semblance of stability
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - grumpy old man - 15 October 2011
well i vote 2 years because humans are resoucefull and manage to get thought the german army invaded russia got all the way to lennin and stopped. fought for quite a while and lost and ended up losing the war because they thought the russian people where stuipied and they had the worst winters for years at that time.
i did not pick one event i left that to you to decide i hoped that you would pick the worst to think about.
i don't think everyone in prison would die, you would get some one helping or a prison officer letting the open.
skev i think it's 3 mins with out air, 3 days with out water and 3 weeks with out food before you die, 3 months seems a bit long from what i was taught maybe 3 months if you are picking scraps here and there.
but interesting veiws anyway i hope the 6 month one is the closes because it would be a long 2 years
RE: how long after an event for things to die down - Dana - 15 October 2011
Just nick-picking a little here.
A human can last for more than 3 weeks without food, nearly up to 2 months have been recorded. BUT, there does become a point where irrepairable damage is done to the human body and this is what will kill you. Point of interest here: If no food is ingested in 24 hours, your body will use up its stored supply of glycogen of which the brain uses 75% of.
Without breaking OPSEC, it is virtually impossible for a single prison officer to unilaterally release inmates from a Category A,B,C prison and all high Cats are routinely 'tested' for potential break-ins by certain alphabet agencies.
Grrrrr, I wish there was an edit function.
Just to add though, 3 weeks of NO food, would in fact be more than enough to kill off the majority of the population. Most will be mentally impaired within 1 week and physically impaired within 2 weeks. Everything shuts down in favour of the brain. Trust me, it is not a nice way to die ...... I have seen a couple of Hunger strikes.