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+--- Thread: Chances (/showthread.php?tid=357)
RE: Chances - bigpaul - 3 November 2011
it would of course depend on what "the event" is? something like scheduled power cuts, and rationed road fuel(like we nearly had in the 70's) is not neccessarily going to send all the sheeple screaming out of the cities in what they stand up in. it will be a gradual thing and may take several months even 6 months before city dwellers decide to leave, if the food is still getting into the shops, even if its at a slower rate, then people will probably decide to stay where they are. i believe its only a huge event will make people leave where they live, something catastrophic TEOTWAWKI type event, life and lifestyle changing. but thats just my personal opinion.
RE: Chances - JD1 - 3 November 2011
I agree with you up to a point.
Taking two extreme examples though, the first a pandemic that kills billions in a short space of time would result in a lot less people wandering around, the second could be a scenario like in "One Second After" where the whole infrastructure was destroyed by EMP due to a nulear strike, that scenario could result in millions wandering around, it certainly did in the book, and yes I know it is fiction
RE: Chances - bigpaul - 4 November 2011
(3 November 2011, 20:16)JD1 Wrote: I agree with you up to a point.i think your 2nd scenario is much less likely than the first, the first i can see happening what with seasonal flu/swineflu/bird flu, any or all of which could mutate into a pandemic, but like you say less people would be survivors. like i said in my previous post it would have to be something like that, anything less than that would not see people stirring from their routine lives.
Taking two extreme examples though, the first a pandemic that kills billions in a short space of time would result in a lot less people wandering around, the second could be a scenario like in "One Second After" where the whole infrastructure was destroyed by EMP due to a nulear strike, that scenario could result in millions wandering around, it certainly did in the book, and yes I know it is fiction
RE: Chances - JD1 - 4 November 2011
I agree the second is far less likely.
I used the two examples at opposite ends of the spectrum to illustrate the point that the number of people who may be wandering around the countryside looking for your food/water/stash could vary from the very small to the very large and could be anywhere in between.
RE: Chances - bigpaul - 4 November 2011
(4 November 2011, 16:12)JD1 Wrote: I agree the second is far less likely.yes, i did get your point , and very well put! but as i have already said, it will need to be a catastrophic event, like you have mentioned, to get the ordinary (non prepper) person thinking "outside the box".
I used the two examples at opposite ends of the spectrum to illustrate the point that the number of people who may be wandering around the countryside looking for your food/water/stash could vary from the very small to the very large and could be anywhere in between.
RE: Chances - JD1 - 4 November 2011
I think we can both agree on that
RE: Chances - bigpaul - 4 November 2011
(4 November 2011, 16:48)JD1 Wrote: I think we can both agree on that
i think we just did
RE: Chances - mikebratcher69 - 14 November 2011
Thats one of the trouble with any type of scenario I think.
bug in, bug out, you do the hokey cokey....
The rule of threes applies I think, have a bug in plan, a bug out plan, and a mobile plan maybe.
Everybodys plans are gonna be different I think.
My home area is crap in that regard, too many people, and that cilvilised veneer will only last so long I think.
It'll only take a car driven at speed to plow right through my house and out the other side, probably collapsing the whole structure, I could put bollards in the ground, but its a rented property so I dont expect the landlord would be happy...
Bug out then....Even though you look hard theres not many bang on retreats that are defendable. Some lucky guys I knew a while back lived near a medievil castle not to big not to small all bricked up only accesable by rope etc...
I was looking at taking over a electric windmill on a hill maybe, yes I know isolated and usualy in view, but if you come out only at night that might just tip it in your favour. Englands a very crowded island, too many people, too many eyes watching.
most people sleep at night so that'd be a good time for moving, and doing the recce and jobs such as gathering food and planting maybe...
I think the bug in or bug out scenario depends so much on your situation and circumstances such as family and such.
If you live near the coast a retreat boat on the open seas might be a good idea? A submarine in the Manchester ship canal maybe?
RE: Chances - bigpaul - 14 November 2011
Unless you live in a VERY remote area, in a detached property, with NO near neighbours, at some point you will HAVE to bug out, its just a decision as to WHEN and WHERE you go. just "running for the hills" and doing a Rambo in the woods isnt going to work, you'll be dead with the first Winter snows, you have to have a BOL to go to and preferably bricks and mortar, which you have already scouted during "good times".
RE: Chances - mikebratcher69 - 19 November 2011
heres one thing to take into account that most preppers dont. One petrol bomb can ruin all the plans you have, try and include the petrol bomb in your "things that may stop or kill me" list, I do because theres a lot of people out there who'd kill for your survival gear come shtf, especially if your not the sharing type, the old "if i cant have it then neither are you" comes to mind,
and as i'm sure everybodys aware petrol bombs are easy to make and use, even your average angry at you for prepping and them not sheeple can make and use them...