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+--- Thread: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. (/showthread.php?tid=5145)
Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Scythe13 - 30 May 2013
Never before has the world faced enemies that you couldn't see in quite the same way we do today.
Modern 'dangers' are having to be changed from the previously obvious, uniformed soldier, to the inconspicuous everyday man in the street.
Going back 30 years or longer, your average adversary was likely in a uniform. Whether that uniform was a Nazi outfit, or a less military Mods n Rockers style, you could tell from sight who you were against.
The most dangerous people from yesteryear, were the plain clothed operatives and behind enemy lines spies in your uniform. Those were the people to really be scared of. The situation has massively changed. The skew is much more heavily bias toward the plain clothed soldier.
This causes us a major problem when trying to avoid certain situations. Yes you can just avoid people like BP does, but that approach doesn't appeal to everyone.
So, what is the solution? Is it a brain radar scanner that picks up a person's negative thoughts and tells you to avoid them? Obviously not.
The simplest solution I've found, is a lot of effort.
We'd all like a magic pill or brain scanner to make life easier for us. Same as being fit and healthy, everyone wants it, but few want it enough to go through the pain it takes to attain the end result.
So, when I unvail this multifacited approach to personal safety, if you're not willing to work at it, suck it up and deal with it.
The personal security system that works best, in my view, consists of being able to out run 'them', out fight 'them', out smart 'them' and out manouver 'them'.
Told you it was going to be effort.
Okay, let's work this out. What does it take to outrun 'them'? Well, if you look at the human population on a graph that charts percentage of population and ability to run. You're going to get a pretty clear bell-curve. The bulk of people will be average performers, with a smaller percentile at the extremes. Using this as a guideline, if you are average, then the only people you can outrun are those in the below average part of the bell-curve. Okay, it's boring maths, but there is a VERY important point to this.
If you are average, then you cannot outpace the other average runners or those above average. Meaning, the people you can outpace are ONLY those below average. Remember, you can't outrun someone as good as you. What this means for us is that average performance will result in a sub 50% chance of running away! If you are average, your best chance of outrunning someone on the street is reduced to about 40% because of the bell-curve. Sucks hu?
I know what you're thinking. What if the population doesn't fit in the bell-curve model you're on about? Well, as annoying as this is, in athletic performance and intelligence, the bell-curve is a damn good fit. But we're not here to talk too much about boring models. We're here to talk survival, right?
Okay, back to the boring maths (haha, I fooled you). If you can increase your performance by 10%, thus becoming 10% better than average, your ability to outpace increases (as expected) but your percentage chance of outrunning increases unexpectedly. You go from 40% chance at average performance, all the way to 75% at 10% above average performance! To be in the top 10% of performers gives you about 99% chance to outrun 'them'.
Stunning how a small increase in ability can so dramatically improve your survival odds!
So, as with the other categories mentioned earlier, out fight, out smart, and out manouver, all you need to do is increase your performance to 10% above average, and you're increasing your survival odds exponentially!
Pretty cool hu?
Sorry for the boring maths, but I really needed to properly show how a small change in fitness and ability GREATLY improves your chances of survival.
Get out and run. Get into a martial art. Learn some psychology. Learn evasive driving skills or free running.
Improve, adapt, and survive, much more easily!
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Straight Shooter - 30 May 2013
Does walking pretty fast count ? scythe
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Scythe13 - 30 May 2013
(30 May 2013, 21:21)Straight Shooter Wrote: Does walking pretty fast count ? scythe
In all seriousness, it's a great place to aim for if you can't do that at the moment.
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Grumpy Grandpa - 31 May 2013
Need a turbo for my wheelchair.
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Skean Dhude - 31 May 2013
Running only helps if you have the chance. This new bunch will pull you in and entrap you then running may be off the table.
The general principle is OK as being fitter is better but it doesn't increase your chances of survival with our modern enemy as much as it implies.
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Scythe13 - 31 May 2013
I hear what you're saying SD.
The basic principle I was trying to explain was that being slightly above average greatly increases your odds of survival. But that is dependent on getting the chance to employ those tactics. Being jumped from behind and smacked by a break negates the advantage of survival via running away.
Although running was only one part of what I was on about, I do get what you're saying.
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - bigpaul - 31 May 2013
when your out and about do a bit of "people watching" like I do, try and figure out which of the people you see could be the greatest threat, mostly its fairly obvious and its not going to be granny on her mobility scooter!
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Grumpy Grandpa - 31 May 2013
(31 May 2013, 08:47)bigpaul Wrote: ...its not going to be granny on her mobility scooter!
Watch out for dangerous Grandpas with tactical ties on though...
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - bigpaul - 31 May 2013
(31 May 2013, 14:59)Grumpy Grandpa Wrote:(31 May 2013, 08:47)bigpaul Wrote: ...its not going to be granny on her mobility scooter!
Watch out for dangerous Grandpas with tactical ties on though...
i'll do that GG!
RE: Feeling safer in a dangerous world. - Highlander - 31 May 2013
The most dangerous person is the one that you didn't guess............
Dangerous people know how to blend in,.. you check out Granny like everyone else, or you may regret it