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up and comming risks / mod report - Printable Version

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up and comming risks / mod report - Sunna - 12 July 2014

whats heading our way in the next 30ish years acording to mod report.


http://http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/11/ministry-of-defence-vision-future-2045-security-threats


RE: up and comming risks / mod report - bigpaul - 12 July 2014

page not found.


RE: up and comming risks / mod report - Devonian - 12 July 2014

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/11/ministry-of-defence-vision-future-2045-security-threats


RE: up and comming risks / mod report - Sunna - 12 July 2014

wow private armys i sure dont like the sound of that also mass unemployment due to robots nicking all the jobs.

british jobs for britsh humans...Rolleyes


RE: up and comming risks / mod report - bigpaul - 12 July 2014

2045?? hell i'll be 97 !!!TongueBig Grin


RE: up and comming risks / mod report - Jace - 13 July 2014

I wonder how much the government paid for this report? If those are the only predictions, I'd say you could get the same info from looking at recent news and TV shows for next to nothing. (eg. latest series of 24 being about terrorists using drones to attack the country)


RE: up and comming risks / mod report - Tarrel - 13 July 2014

On the face of the Guardian synopsis, I agree. However the report itself covers a lot of detail, and acknowledges the difficulty of predicting into the future, and the rising uncertainty that goes with that.

It takes a huge amount of foresight to anticipate the myriad of potential "black swan" events that could arise in the next 30 years. Bear in mind that 30 years ago the internet was barely in its infancy. It's natural for us to envisage a future which has more of the same of what we have now (e.g. continued rise of China, existence of middle-east terrorism, more drones, etc), but much more difficult to "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" and envision new scenarios out of thin air. But it's the new, unexpected events that tend to create the biggest seismic shifts and threats. That's why resilience is important.

"All the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built—one in Cambridge, one in Teddington, and one in Manchester. No one else would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them."

Prof. Douglas Hartree - early British computer pioneer - around 1951