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Taiwan Prognosis - CharlesHarris - 27 October 2022
Congress is now calling for us to send more arms to Taiwan. Their heart may in the right place, but they are completely unaware of the state of Taiwan’s military. A recent think tank report of their investigation into the state of Taiwan’s military published in American Military News was disturbing. People are conscripted for only a matter of months, and very few are willing to make the military a career. With that kind of turnover, proper training of a force as a goal is simply out of reach. Without a well-trained force what good are high tech weapons? The Taiwanese need to have the same training that turned the Ukrainian military into the fighting force that is kicking the "gavno" (Russian for excrement) out of Putin’s forces.
We are on the verge of making the same mistake we have made before, going to war for Asians who are unwilling to fight for themselves. If conditions in Taiwan are truly as reported, and I believe that they are, then we should avoid going to Taiwan’s aid simply because we feel we must confront Chinese aggression. Of those who might join us in a coalition, only the Japanese have a credible military. What the UN might choose to do in response to an invasion of Taiwan is impossible to guess. It is likely that the UN will dither, talk and do nothing much leaving us alone in facing the PRC.
Whether we go to go to war over Taiwan or not, we need to bring our own forces up to date to have credibility and adequacy to defend ourselves. Our fleet continues to shrink while the PRC navy is already larger than our entire fleet, which is split between two oceans. Theirs continues to grow. Many USAF aircraft are twenty years old. We don't have enough new fifth-generation aircraft and are unable to retain pilots to man them. The US Marine Corps is being changed in ways that will weaken its effectiveness. The idea of parking units on isolated islands is reminiscent of the Japanese WW2 strategy that failed to defend the homeland.
If that were not enough, only 23% of the pool of young citizens of draft age are physically fit enough, drug free, and do not have a disqualifying arrest/conviction record. Moreover, our military must compete with the civil sector for the services of those who are fit. Meanwhile, experienced people are leaving our military in part because of the imposition of “woke” ideas upon them. Social engineering is not the mission of the military – killing the enemy and winning battles is the mission of our military, yet we are spending valuable training time needed to be battle ready on social engineering which degrades readiness and discipline. We should not be rattling our sabers until we are truly ready for a fight. Truth be told we are not ready enough now, and will not be for at least a decade.
Maybe one day our leaders will learn to pick their fights. We can only pray that day will come soon. Our nation has expended an enormous amount of money, weapons, equipment, and personnel on fights that we should have avoided altogether. Was going to war in Iraq necessary? I never did think so. Was going to war in Afghanistan, the historic graveyard of empires, necessary. From the beginning I had serious reservations about the outcome. Was nation building ever a viable plan? Experience has shown it to be an abject failure, Our efforts in Iraq and Astan came to naught – at a terrible price, which killed a great many civilians, and destabilized the region. Not a good outcome...
The USA is not a self-appointed world police force. Ensuring a peaceful world and a free Europe, is not and has never been up to us alone. Trump was roundly criticized for scolding the EU nations for not having kept up their militaries or their contributions to NATO’s defense, he was absolutely correct to do so. The EU nations have always been more concerned about their economies than military preparedness. So the USA carried a disproportionate burden of their defense for decades, paid for with your tax dollars. If not for Putin, they would not be taking their defense as seriously as they do now.
Meanwhile in China, it looks as if Xi wants to be dictator for life, just as Putin aspires to be. The Chinese are playing the Russians to their own ends. Sun Tzu seems to have written the script for what they are doing now. Is their encouragement of the Russians meant only to drain away the resources of both Russia and the West to leave them the strongest superpower standing and to make their own planned conquests easier? Chinese infiltration and subversion of our country is alarming. Apparently, we have the best government that money can buy right up to the President, though the FBI and the Justice Department will not pursue the matter. And this is absolutely disgraceful.
Russia and China seem are led by men who want to make their mark on the history of the world. They spurn international law, engaging in blatant aggression. The Chinese are confident that the West is in decline and does not have the cohesiveness or resolve to challenge them while their tentacles spread throughout the world. They are not worried about a response from the UN either. Does anyone out there remember Ethiopia or Manchuria and the impotence of the League of Nations? History repeats itself.
If there is any good news in the foregoing, it is that maintaining an empire is always more of a strain and a drain than a benefit of the country trying to run one. The Chinese are on a roll now, but how long can their economy and people sustain it? The Chinese people may well prove less tractable than Xi thinks they are, and repression does not work forever. Time is neutral, but I do not believe that it is on the side of the Chinese. And since wars are come-as-you-are events, neither is time on our side.
Obama himself said ‘never to underestimate Joe Biden’s ability to bugger things up.’ I wish it was possible to say that he was wrong. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was so poorly handled that it beggars description. It was tragic. We need someone more capable as president at this point in history.
RE: Taiwan Prognosis - Pete Grey - 28 October 2022
Your right Charles to question the west’s rearmament of Taiwan, the burden of which would undoubtedly be carried by the US.
However if not, China will probably invade eventually and then what, Australia ?.
Australia a huge country with a low population and vast mineral resources, ideal target for an expansionist regime.
Then we would have to intervene