(23 February 2022, 09:29)bigpaul Wrote: [ -> ]Putin wont stop at Ukraine, he will also want to retake all the old Soviet bloc countries and unlike Ukraine they are all NATO members so this thing will escalate, increased prices in the shops is just the start of it.
He did seem to suggest that Pete in his speech the other day, but I was just praying that was just tough talk. If he does do that it will be WW3. At the moment I think his plan is to gradually destroy the economic and political administration in the rest of Ukraine, then create more pretexts for further incursions. Putin ain't stupid by any means, he's a master chess player who plays the long game.
he wants a huge buffer between Russia and the West. Ukraine wont be enough.
WW3? if its a conventional war rather than a nuclear one our pitiful little "army" wont be enough.
Well there’s one thing we can all count on ! Fuel will be going UP along with food prices , okay they were going up before Ukraine ....but as a direct result of Ukraine ....will add even more problems and bring a lot of things (we think unrelated ) to bear down on all of us ....world over ! The supply system already broken will take years to fix if at all .....Putin sees the weakness of the west’s policies and weak leaders , he has just been biding his time , waiting and watching the self inflicted demise of the west .....and doing little , he has no need too , he must be laughing his tits off ....and our response is financial sanctions ? ....that he has already baked into his pie ....even worse he still controls the narrative ....everyone waiting on his next move ...as everyone else runs around like headless chickens , you can’t make this stuff up ! We have been out smarted is the truth ....and I don’t even play chess ! .
wheat and fertiliser, oil and energy is what Russia exports to the West, expect shortages and price rises in these areas.
what happens to Ukraine is of little interest to me but what if Putin goes further? the Baltic countries that were once part of the Soviet Bloc before the fall of the Berlin Wall, what of them? will they be next? if they are that puts a different slant on the problem and will make matters far far worse.
(22 February 2022, 18:45)CharlesHarris Wrote: [ -> ]IMHO the Biden administration likely released intel that may compromise sources and methods which will be needed for a more serious situation in the near future. I missed my guess on how the Ukraine war would start, thinking Kiev would provoke the conflict. It turned out that Putin did a replay of the Soviet intervention in A-stan with a Saddam 19th Province twist. Hmmm. I didn’t see that coming. Am told by friends at Ft. Leavenworth that folks are having their leaves and passes cancelled, being recalled to duty stations. This could take on a life of its own fairly quickly.
State probably got caught by some maskirova deliberately planted in diplomatic circles. State Department types are generally no respecters of document classification and commonly release information when it serves their purpose to do so, whether they have authority to do so or not.
Publicly stating a date certain of invasion is amateurish folly. Indicators and warnings of ground offensive are fairly specific in many domains. Correlation across disciplines is required to be accurate. My take is that somebody DoS made the whole thing up because their spokesman didn’t elaborate on substantiation, nor did he defer to specific sources. It wouldn’t be the first time a diplomat mixed fact with opinion to produce an outlandish statement for the media.
Exactly, why specify the date you plan to invade.
Tactical a proper invasion will always be timed to a full moon in order to utilise passive night vision, otherwise you are dependent on active systems like Lantern which is pretty easy to detect with £20 worth of electronics.
I doubt anyone is taking it seriously, the Uk is talking tough but it’s not going to do a thing otherwise the gas gets switched off. Biden is Biden and is more than likely going to do absolutely nothing unless of course he accidentally presses the Launch button by mistake instead of the coffee maker ? Being serious Biden does present a major danger to the world simply because he doesn’t know what planet he is on.
The US and UK are not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, if it stops there, fine, sanctions will apply but at least it stops there, but what if it dosent? what if reunification of all the old Soviet bloc states is what Putin had in the back of his mind all along? as they say "thats a different kettle of fish entirely".
[quote='bigpaul' pid='107646' dateline='1645604972']
Putin wont stop at Ukraine, he will also want to retake all the old Soviet bloc countries and unlike Ukraine they are all NATO members so this thing will escalate, increased prices in the shops is just the start of it.
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I don't know if he wants the bloc back per se but if NATO get involved then expect ugly.
The question is not what Putin’s plan and desires are .......the question is what the ( west’s ) plan and desires are to counter ? Truth is Putin will not stop .....until he does ,when he gets what he wants (for now) while we try and sneeze on him to make him go away .
Our elites are projecting their experience and values onto Russia. The same amateur mistake they made in Iraq and A-stan.
Yet despite our recent failures they continue to learn slowly.
I don’t think that Putin is any form of genius. But, he’s a capable leader and aggressive political animal.
He’s not afraid to use force in large doses. It is best not underestimate him or his generals. Russia isn’t invincible either. But it will be a tough fight should the Europeans choose to engage. But with determination it can be won.
I’d like to hear NATO leaders describe what the end game looks like when it’s over.
A clear end state is always helpful before signing up for a major war.
We’ve forgotten that lesson too many times since 1945.