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+--- Thread: Ukraine (/showthread.php?tid=9725)
RE: Ukraine - Straight Shooter - 10 March 2022
BP did you read Charles last post ? You have just posted and repeated a news report dished out by the MSM ! Adding weight the the narrative they peddle on the human conditions of conflict ....have you anything to say about Yemen ?
RE: Ukraine - bigpaul - 10 March 2022
I saw it on breakfast news this morning, straight from the mouth of the deputy Mayor of Mariupol.
both Yemen and Covid hardly figure in the news at all especially Yemen.
RE: Ukraine - Straight Shooter - 10 March 2022
Yes BP .......that’s my very point ! Pal ......take a peep behind the curtains ....with all due respect !
RE: Ukraine - CharlesHarris - 10 March 2022
If the war is not going well for Russia the danger is that Putin will escalate to chem-bio-nuc to save face, make a massive strike, then withdraw and claim "victory." The ramifications of RU maybe resorting to chemical warfare are huge. Not just the Geo-political reaction but the physical encumbrance created by sliming territory across which your forces may have to later maneuver.
Even highly trained, well equipped and disciplined troops caught "under the slime" become combat ineffective.
All their time and energy will be focused on their own survival with none left over to shoot, move and communicate.
The Russian army is manned almost entirely by short term conscripts who are inexperienced, poorly trained and ill-disciplined. I’d venture that while they have the gear, my guess is that they are incapable of conducting effective operations "in the slime." (Hopefully the Russian leadership actually recognizes this fact.)
If the invader’s intention is to fully annex the territory it’s unlikely, he’ll contaminate it with poison or nuc.
I never say never but I just don’t see it happening in the near term.
I would be curious of what MB thinks, for his military education and experience is probably similar to mine.
RE: Ukraine - Straight Shooter - 10 March 2022
Yes MB’s input would be appreciated by all Charles .
RE: Ukraine - bigpaul - 11 March 2022
Russia will eventually win the war, just by force of numbers, they dont care if they bomb the place to bits, Putin dosent care how many are killed- on both sides!
RE: Ukraine - CharlesHarris - 11 March 2022
PUTIN’S UKRAINE GAMBIT
Gambit, a device, action, or opening remark, typically one entailing a degree of risk, that is calculated to gain an advantage.
In his echo chamber, staffed with group thinking, fearful and greedy yes-men, Vladimir Putin made the following assumptions;
1. The American president/administration has no stomach for a fight and can be intimidated into inaction. (Not entirely true but close.)
2. NATO is full of member nations lacking resolve and can be intimidated into inaction. (Nope, collective shock and fear has galvanized an erstwhile gaggle of lazy states. This is the best thing to happen to NATO since the French quit.)
3. The Russian military is capable of large-scale, first-world combined arms offensive operations. (We have yet to see this. So far it looks like a cluster-fuck of Biblical proportions.)
4. The Ukrainians will fold and run, in fear of the great Russian onslaught. (Ooops, who’d have thought these folks had so much spine.)
5. The ground will stay frozen until mid-April. (Bad luck here, road travel only for Russia’s 70-ton war machines.)
6. Unexercised, lowest bidder built (Chinese) tires are good enough for government work. (Oh snap, there you go. Again, who’d a thought these bargain tires left unmaintained, unexercised and exposed to sunlight for years would fail, generally?)
7. The rest of the world will sit idlily by and do nothing. (Nope, no more Big Macs for you)
8. Atop turret grill work will mitigate top attack missile fire. (Apparently not effective perhaps due to budget cutting lack of testing or simply wishful thinking.)
That’s enough; Putin took this gambit because he believed his own propaganda and lacked a clear and realistic view of the situation.
If he’s thinking clearly and objectively, he’ll seek a way out of this mess so he can take a time out and lick his wounds.
If he’s out of his head anything can happen and anything can be a bad thing.
RE: Ukraine - LAC - 11 March 2022
All the sanctions will do is cripple the Russian urban neo middle class, and harden the resolve of the majority of Russian nationalists and traditional conservatives, already contemptuous of the spread of western woke values. It may even create a few converts from the Russian 'citizens of the world' brigade once their utopia bubble has burst, and the value of their wealth has been sufficiently weakened. Far from getting a Gorbachev to make everything 'right' they may end up with someone who makes Putin look like John Lennon. These traditional Russians are the ones who have in the past eaten dirt and each other to survive. The Russian conscripts may not be that well trained, but Putin has been going extremely lightly thus far. I don't believe he wishes to destroy Kiev, both civilians and the historical architecture. I, for or my part, would never discount the Russians, judging by their history of endurance, the tradional Russians at least. I doubt very much this would be happening now if Trump were still POTUS. It was his very energy self sufficiently policies that kept Putin in line, cheaper gas so why bother, and helped the average American by cheaper fuel back home. Now Bojo talking accessing that wonderful reservoir of British gas his mrs wouldn't let him touch previously, because she likes watching windmills and mincing with the WEF. All these shenanigans could have been avoided, and the tragic loss of life, and poor innocent displaced people may never have taken place.
https://www.lotuseaters.com/sanctions-on-russia-will-create-a-monster-11-03-22
RE: Ukraine - Mortblanc - 12 March 2022
I have to agree with CH on every point he has made.
Secondly, I am hesitant to speculate due to not believing any of the reported "facts" from the conflict since I have noted that much of the footage broadcast is old stock footage from other conflicts and computer generated imagery.
There has also been some of the stupidest reporting and reporters I have ever witnessed on the screen, asking some of the stupidest questions, then basing their summaries on emotion rather than facts one can use to form a valid opinion. I don't care how "heroically defiant" someone in a rear area in is in front of a camera, I want to see them standing over dead bodies.
I have been utterly astounded at the inefficiency and lack of organization of the Russian forces.
My observations of the combat footage I trust, and some of the regular news footage that I don't, is that both sides are engaged in some very amateurish tactics. In the 1970s we would have been relieved of command and court martialed, down to the squad level, for some of the things I have seen both sides do, if the footage is real.
That may be the reason why so many high ranking Russian officers have been killed. They are trying to go forward and kick some butt due to the lack of battalion, company and platoon grade leadership, thus exposing themselves to sniper and adjusted indirect fire. But they might as well die in battle, the Russians do not tolerate failure.
That extends to Putin. No Russian leader since Stalin has been allowed to fail this badly and retain power. I remember tanks rolling down the streets of Moscow and blowing holes in the Parliament building once upon a time.
That is the one and single important point to observe in all of this. Even if he retains power Putin has discovered that his army can not fight on equal terms with any opponent that is properly trained and armed. To dominate the modern geopolitical scene he must use NBC munitions of some form.
As for the defeat of the Ukraine being inevitable??? The myth of the undefeatable Russian State died in 1989 when the Afghans handed the Russians their butts on a platter using the same tools the Ukrainians are using.
They know what will be done to them if they lose this battle.
The Ukrainians know what the Russians did to them in the 1930s. The Russians starved to death more Ukrainians than all the people Hitler killed in the Holocaust. Then they moved ethnic Russians into the vacant lands they now claim as "culturally Russian", the exact lands they are claiming to "liberate" now.
RE: Ukraine - bigpaul - 12 March 2022
from what I can see the Russians are using the same tactics as they used in Syria;
displace most of the population to other countries as refugees, indiscriminate bombing of all civilian properties include hospitals and schools, flatten the infrastructure and leave the place in a pile of rubble.
not sure if they want to occupy the country or just leave it in ruins so they will never be a problem to Russia ever again.