peak food

[bigpaul]

not being able to produce enough food for the current population is not TSHTF? amazing.

[Skean Dhude]

Not being able to produce enough food for the current population is TSHTF. However this thread is about peak food which is different and we are producing enough food atm.

[bigpaul]

if we are now at peak food and the yields are dropping, how far will they drop and isn't that something you would be concerned about if not actually worry? if more and more land is becoming infertile yet the population is still increasing how long before one outweighs the other? certainly something to ponder on-I should think.

[Devonian]

As SD states, I think we are a long way from being at peak food.

Let's not forget that for decades now, farmers in the UK have been paid to set aside land and to diversify, so there is plenty of land that is not being used for growing crops or grazing animals on.

Also if things became desperate we would just change what is being grown and grow less fancy foods, less low intensity organic foods and more intensively farmed bulk foods.

At the moment we have plenty of capacity and farmers simply grow whatever the market demands, rather than what is needed for the country to survive.

[Tarrel]

Oil and natural gas are key issues here. Oil for powering the agricultural machinery, grain-dryers, irrigation systems, etc. that modern agriculture depends on, as well as the food distribution system we have become accustomed to. Natural gas for the production of fertilisers which, as has been stated, are necessary for our current "soil-mining" approach to intensive agriculture.

We may not be at Peak Food, but we are certainly at Peak Cheap Oil and natural gas. Cheap-to-extract sources are depleting, leaving us to rely on hard-to-extract sources with a high extraction cost. These high-cost sources have only remained viable over the past few years due to the high oil price and ready sources of capital looking for a decent return in a world of low interest rates. The recent oil price collapse is already causing major disruption to investment plans in the North Sea, and rig-counts in the US are falling. I expect a rough ride over the next 2-3 years with oil supply and price, added to by a few geo-political "wild cards".

What does this mean for food? Well, possible instability in prices at the shops caused by fluctuating transport costs, changes in the market price of basic commodities such as grain, and rising and falling costs for farmers. Supply-destruction as farmers go out of business during price-falls and supply-gluts, leading to shortages and price-rises as the number of growers/suppliers reduces. Add in some unpredictability in harvests caused by climate disruption and we may be looking at a near-future in which the stability of food price and availability that we are used to is no longer there.

So, what is an appropriate prepping response? IMHO:
- Keeping good stocks of basic non-perishable commodities that that one can ride out shortages or short-term price spikes, replenishing these during periods of supply-glut and low price.
- Reducing debt and "base-load" expenses as much as possible, so that one has surplus income to spend on higher food prices when necessary
- Growing / producing more of one's own food where possible.
- Buying or building a greenhouse to extend growing season and range of things one can grow. (Wooden frame and bubble-wrap if you are short of funds).

If it had to guess what the future holds for our food supply, I'd say...Instability!

[Sunna]

good post tarrel....

lots of good points their , without creeping around da boss.

[Tarrel]

Moving towards self-sufficiency in food doesn't have to be a big deal. Take this simple four-chicken system for example:

- Get some 2x2 and 2x1 wood and build a simple run 6ft x 6ft. Cover it with chicken-wire (obviously), including the roof to keep out Mr Fox.
- Build a small 2ft x 3ft coop from scavenged, scrap or (if you're feeling flush) new wood and a bit of roofing felt. Put it in the run.
- Install 4 x point-of-lay hens (abt. 16 weeks old). Get cheap hybrids, bred for egg-laying, at around 7 quid each. Check the small ads in any of the "Smallholder" magazines on the newsagent bookshelves.
- They will each produce around 320 eggs over a three year period.
- That's 1500 eggs over three years, or around 10 per week averaged over the year. (Around £250 worth of eggs over the three years, based on £1 per half doz.)
- Feed them Layers' Pellets; a balanced feed with pretty much everything they need. This will cost around £150 over the three years, worst case.
- Reduce the feed needed (and cost) by giving them scraps. They'll eat anything. (Technically these should not have passed through your kitchen otherwise you're breaking DEFRA rules.) Put a small board on the ground in the garden. Once a week turn it over and feed the hens all the insects that have collected under there. Give them foraged weeds. (They love sticky-weed, and chickweed, funnily enough).
- Get the kids to clean them out once a week.
- After three years, stick the hens in a stewpot and replace them with new ones.
- If you don't get through 10 eggs a week, sell the surplus on the doorstep (or build social capital by giving them away).

Such a system will:
- Assure you of a basic source of protein should TSHTF
- Make you independent of the supply chain for at least one fundamental foodstuff
- Insulate you from rising costs of same
- Provide you with enough chicken sh*t to turbo-charge your compost heap
- Fit into the smallest of back gardens
- Provide hours of entertainment

*Warning* - They can be addictive. We now have 20, having started with six.