Peak oil - Fact or fiction?

[Timelord]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-06...crude.html

[Scythe13]

Interesting article. Good find Timelord.

[Skean Dhude]

The simple answer is Fact.

The Fiction part is when it is.

[bigpaul]

i have posted on this subject before, so at the risk of repeating myself-some of our newer members may not have read it before! these are some newspaper and magazine articles i have made a note of in past years, in no particular order: 13th September 2007 Central Somerset Gazette, " according to The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO), annual production of conventional oil PEAKED in 2005, total oils (heavy oil, tar oil, oil shales,polar oils etc) is expected to peak in 2011, Gas will peak in 2012, the downhill slide in fossil fuel production, food production and (possibly) world population MAY begin in 2012. ASPO newsletter in 2002: Liquid production will decline relentlessly by 5% per year-there will be an average of 2% growth in global oil DEMAND & a 3% DECLINE in production from existing reserves. 26th June 2008: Global thirst for oil is intense and economists warn high oil prices will impact on the world economy, demand has risen by about 3 MILLION barrels PER DAY since 2005 and is expected to increase further in the next 2 decades. the US remains the worlds largest oil consumer and high individual fuel usage continues to put pressure on stocks. CHINA & INDIA are forcast to account for 40% of demand in growth by 2030 as industry and travel increases. 8th August 2008: A serious oil supply crisis is looming, a "Supply Crunch" will affect the world market within 5-10 years a "Chatham house" report has said. 29th.October 2008: THE PEAK OIL GROUP- an industry taskforce-claims the problem of declining availability of oil will hit the UK WITHIN 5-10 years. 29th January 2009: CHINA's demand for oil has gone up by nearly 50% INDIA's is up by one third.

[Prep Girl]

I think fact, can't see anyone telling us when ( even if they knew) coz that would cause world panic, but if the Saudis are already drilling off shore and the Germans are in the process of building some kind of floating rig being very closely watched my Norway, the price is going up and up , what's to say we've not reached it already and it's now a matter of how much money needs to be spent to drill for what might! be left, , I'm no oil expert but surely they must first find oil to be sure on how much is actually there, but what I would really like to know is, what is oils purpose, why was there so much of it, I'm not wording this very well, if the planet was formed with it, it must need it for some thing, if that's the case how much more of it can we take before it stops doing what it was originally created for, or is that just thick?

[Skean Dhude]

Oil is the left over after bodies, dinosaurs for example, have been crushed and formented for millions of years.

Like everything else these is only so much of it and because it takes so long to make naturally it is not being replaced at anything like the rate it is being used and it is something we cannot cost effectivly replicate in the lab.

Imagine you see a tap in the ground. You turn it on and oil comes out. We can find out with technology how much oil is available from that tap. So we can calculate how long it will last at the extraction rate we are using. Simple maths.

The three issues are;
1) We keep finding new sources to plug the taps in.
2) not all oil is in big lakes,some is in rock.
3) Extracting the last of the oil from the tap is very expensive.

So we abandon wells, taps, because they are too expensive to get oil out of. As it becomes more expensive, economics means that the price goes up as demand does, then we can revisit the wells to get more out.

We also find new ways of extracting the last of the oil and new ways to extract it from rocks that we couldn't before.

However, logic dictates that we have found most of the easy stuff, the remainder is more expensive to get out and that as it is finite we will run out some time.

When nobody knows but they still think we are looking at after 2050.

Personally, I think we will have moved on by then. If not we are in more trouble than just oil.

[bigpaul]

i think 2050 is an over estimate, a lot of oil experts say a maximum of 20 years, some say as little as 10-15 years, this is because the OPEC oil producing countries have been known to exaggerate how much oil they have in reserves. so you pays your money and takes your choice, personally i'm assuming a lower figure then i wont be affected if its a bit more!

[Scythe13]

I love BP's optimistic pessimism. Expect the worst, if it doesn't happen, you're quids in! Love it mate.

There are tarsands that apparently hold enough oil to last us another 100 years (why is it always 100 years these things are meant to last?) There are breakthroughs in development and the extraction system has become financially viable. So that is a good thing. But it doesn't mean the price of the fuel will go down. It never does.

The price of fuel has already gone up this year by over 3% in just over a month. December saw diesel at 137, now it is at 141 in the same places. One of the biggest reasons to start storing fuel will simply be the price punch. You know that feeling, like someone has punched you in the wallet? That is the price punch. When over 50% of your pay cheque goes towards filling the car. That is when it will be too damaging for society to deal with.

I don't believe we need to worry about running out of fuel as the disaster to plan for. I fear much greater things will happen before then.

The only reason we might have to worry about fuel shutdowns, would be if something happens with Iran, and the gulf canal thing that ferries 70% (why can I not capitalise a number? That's a HUGE thing to think about SEVENTY PERCENT!!!!) of the worlds oil goes through. They'll have to find a new route. Which will not be cheap! So either way, we will have fuel, but will be paying for it out of our noses!!!

[Skean Dhude]

Scythe,

That 70% is why Iran won't block it without major,and swift, repercussions.

[bigpaul]

most of the price you pay at the fuel pumps is TAX!!

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[quote='Scythe13' pid='7161' dateline='1328783618']
I love BP's optimistic pessimism. Expect the worst, if it doesn't happen, you're quids in! Love it mate.

"Optimistic pessimism" yeah i think that about sums it up or "err on the side of caution" but isnt that what we do as preppers?? we prep for something that may not happen? but we are covered if it does?

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[quote='Scythe13' pid='7161' dateline='1328783618']
I love BP's optimistic pessimism. Expect the worst, if it doesn't happen, you're quids in! Love it mate.

"Optimistic pessimism" yeah i think that about sums it up or "err on the side of caution" but isnt that what we do as preppers?? we prep for something that may not happen? but we are covered if it does?