peak food

[Tarrel]

Oil and natural gas are key issues here. Oil for powering the agricultural machinery, grain-dryers, irrigation systems, etc. that modern agriculture depends on, as well as the food distribution system we have become accustomed to. Natural gas for the production of fertilisers which, as has been stated, are necessary for our current "soil-mining" approach to intensive agriculture.

We may not be at Peak Food, but we are certainly at Peak Cheap Oil and natural gas. Cheap-to-extract sources are depleting, leaving us to rely on hard-to-extract sources with a high extraction cost. These high-cost sources have only remained viable over the past few years due to the high oil price and ready sources of capital looking for a decent return in a world of low interest rates. The recent oil price collapse is already causing major disruption to investment plans in the North Sea, and rig-counts in the US are falling. I expect a rough ride over the next 2-3 years with oil supply and price, added to by a few geo-political "wild cards".

What does this mean for food? Well, possible instability in prices at the shops caused by fluctuating transport costs, changes in the market price of basic commodities such as grain, and rising and falling costs for farmers. Supply-destruction as farmers go out of business during price-falls and supply-gluts, leading to shortages and price-rises as the number of growers/suppliers reduces. Add in some unpredictability in harvests caused by climate disruption and we may be looking at a near-future in which the stability of food price and availability that we are used to is no longer there.

So, what is an appropriate prepping response? IMHO:
- Keeping good stocks of basic non-perishable commodities that that one can ride out shortages or short-term price spikes, replenishing these during periods of supply-glut and low price.
- Reducing debt and "base-load" expenses as much as possible, so that one has surplus income to spend on higher food prices when necessary
- Growing / producing more of one's own food where possible.
- Buying or building a greenhouse to extend growing season and range of things one can grow. (Wooden frame and bubble-wrap if you are short of funds).

If it had to guess what the future holds for our food supply, I'd say...Instability!