Hurricane Harvey AAR

[Mortblanc]

Irma is a strong storm but most of what you are reading is media sensationalism.

The earthquake instrument are picking up ground vibrations from tree roots and sand shifting in the winds. They all do that.

it is a cat 5 storm with 185 mph winds but it is not the "super-storm" they are making it out to be. Harvey also had 185 mph winds at one point as have a half dozen storms in the past 15 years. any storm that reaches cat 5 will have those winds, that is what makes them a cat 4 or 5, wind speed. But it requires perfect conditions to sustain them for very long. These storms have to be fed.

Irma is being fed by 30c water temps and the natural heat of the Caribbean. Fortunately there is a strong cold front moving south like a freight train that may block the storm and decrease its power. Where I am it is noon and not yet 20c. Last night went into the low 10c range. Those temps are headed south toward the storm and should arrive about the time the storm hits Florida. The cold air will suck the life out of the storm rapidly.

That is why each time the storms hit landfall they loose power and when they finally reach the continent the reduce to simple tropical storms by the time the travel 100 miles inland. They may stay active and dump millions of gallons of water as they move north, but their winds decrease.

Florida is so flat, low and narrow that the storm sometimes does not realize it has reached land and does not diminish as rapidly as expected. The climate is about like southern Spain, except more rain. Year round temps average around 25c, 35c being common in the summers.

What often amazes me is how unpredictable they are as they move inland. One storm, like Harvey, will dump rain to flood stage, but have little wind. Another will be dry as a bone and still have gale force winds 1500 miles inland. That was what Ike did 10 years ago. Not a drop of rain but 90 mph winds 1000 miles inland. Other storms spin off tornadoes and bands of rainfall for a week. One series of weak hurricanes back in the early '90s caused a constant rain that lasted for the entire month of November. It never stopped raining, day and night, for the entire month!

Storms that strike the gulf coast move up to the north east as they travel inland. That gives them a wide path to strike with little topography to slow them down. They usually dump their moisture slowly over a wide area. Fortunately the Ohio, Arkansas and Mississippi River systems usually can handle the flow. I live right on the Ohio and there was not even a measurable increase in the river volume from Harvey.

Storms that hit Florida can move up the east side of the Application mountains or up their west side. The land is pretty flat for the first 500 miles until it reaches the area around Chattanooga, TN where it strikes the hills. At that point is goes slightly north west into Tennessee and Kentucky, or keeps going straight up the east side of the hills and focuses the moisture on river systems that are not designed to handle that volume of water.

My friends in Florida are all "preppers" as are most of that state's long term residents. They would ot call themselves preppers, they are simply ready for the next storm.

If you live there for long you will have the 5000w gen-set, a water-bob for the bathtub, lighting, cooking gear, chainsaws of various types, and stores of fuel. Most of them also have bolts installed in their window frames and have pre-cut plywood sheets that fit onto them. They install the plywood and secure it using wing nuts, then remove it after the storm. Some have roll down covers, like small garage doors, on each window and doors.

You want to know what size gen-set you need for your house? Ask one of those guys! they have lived with the gen-sets for weeks on end year after year. They can even tell you which of the cheap Chinese sets will give you return for your money, but I must warn you, any of them that can afford one have a Honda unit just for the quiet running and fuel efficiency. A gen-set will drive you nuts running 24/7.

it is the new residents or part time residents that go into panic mode, do not have proper supplies and roam about like deer in the headlights.

Florida has a large population of winter residents that come down from the northern states to escape the cold. They are referred to as "Snowbirds". The smart ones have learned to stay north until Christmas, when the hurricane season is over, then head south. That way they also get just enough if the northern states miserable weather to appreciate the southern climate.