The First Shot of Cold War 2.0?

[Tibbs735]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/18...86451.html

Could this be the start of an escalation into a economic, conventional or nuclear war?

What do you think?

[Tarrel]

It now looks like it could have been a sniper, according to BBC and Russia Today.

In terms of the bigger picture, I think we have to recognise we are dealing with an increasingly desperate USA which is seeing its global hegemony slip away and knows it is wallowing in economic quicksand. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility for them to make some kind of "sh*t or bust", "put it all on 32 red" move and escalate this to a point where all bets are off. Hope not though.

As far as Russia is concerned, I suppose what happens next depends on Putin's strategy; is he happy to have secured Crimea, thus protecting the naval base and gaining access to the Black Sea potential oil and gas reserves, or does he have greater ambitions?

Either way, I think a Pandora's Box has been opened in Eastern Europe, with a lot of people starting to rattle their cages. The Russia-leaning area of TransNistria in Moldova is reported to have approached Russia to "do a Crimea" just today. I think we are going to see some more border and territory changes in the region, whether these are influenced by Russia, the US/EU, or the people themselves.

Interesting times!

[Scythe13]

Interesting that you mention Moldova there Tarrel. I heard on the radio that parts of Bulgaria were being 'acquired' yesterday too.

WW1 and WW2 both started from relatively insignificant things.

The Western Economic system is based largely on a war-functioning-society.

There is a lot more going on that we don't hear about.

Putin is not stupid, he will not pick a fight he can't win, but he will bide his time and get what he can while he can. Everyone knows the US is financially screwed. Russia hosted the winter olympics and the next G8/G20 summit. They control alot of the world's gas reserves and pipelines.

China will not mess with the US, because the US is China's largest customer. It would be like McDonalds banning fat people from coming into their restaurants! Not going to work. However, if those fat people were trying to do business with leaves off a tree, that had no value...welcome to the pleasures of inflation that come with fiat currency.

There are so many complicated situations and conditions going on around the world at the moment.

This shooting may not be the final stray that breaks the donkey's back. But it's definitely another straw added to the mix.

The problem occurs when the Western 'non-acceptance of the illegitimate annexing' of Crimea ends up being 'acted upon'. If the West says that they are going to restore Crimea to the Ukraine, then Putin will respond. However, the West needs to reinforce their 'will' and general world-policing, otherwise there will be a message sent out that the US does not back up it's claims. North Korea would love to hear that news!

Okay, let's get a little more in depth shall we?

The 9/11 attacks were not to kill a large number of people, they were attacks on the financial districts, right? An attack on symbolism too. The wars abroad are stretching the US's already weakened currency. Add to this more financial stress and strain being caused internally, the US fund is running on empty. Check the debt clock for evidence and the raising of the debt ceiling.

Putin's latest actions on Crimea are, in my opinion, secondly a land-grab. Putin is not trying to expand Russia. If he was he wouldn't do it in that way. He would simply start buying land in other countries and renting that land out. Plus, he's got a fricking massive country as it is! He's not grabbing for land.

He's provoking the West to take action. Any military effort put into Crimea would be a major drain on the already weakened resources of the US and EU. Nearly half the countries in the EU are financially dead, and the other half are struggling. The US is losing territory via stealth invasion, but more importantly, it's financially defunct.

The resources of the US are stretched over Iraq, Afghanistan, and a few other places around the middle-east. The cost of keeping a single soldier in place is rediculous. Make it prolonged, and you have hell to pay. Add to this the increase in troops in South Korea. The search for the missing plane around Malaysia. You get a picture of how stretched the US economy is.

I believe Putin has used Crimea and the Ukraine situation to provoke the US to take action, stretch themselves even thinner, and cost a hell of a lot more.

The best part of all...it'll work. The US has never been so weak, but neither has it had so much opposition and put so many people into so many places.

Putin is playing devils advocate, and the US has to react.

If this doesn't make sense, imagine the US as a giant candle with hundreds of wicks sticking out of it. Each war is another wick being lit. Putin is trying to light even more wicks. The candle has a limited amount of wax. Once enough wicks have been lit, the candle will burn itself down. No more USA or potentially no more EU.

[Mortblanc]

Sometimes we forget that there is a direct phone line between president Obama's desk and Putin's desk.

They are not on opposing sides and have been known to personally communicate and coordinate meetings and political actions in the past.

Nothing is happening that has not bee discusses and planned in advance.

[bigpaul]

somebody got a bit stressed and shot the Ukranian soldier, Russians throwing their weight around now the papers to absorb Crimea back into Russia have been signed, NOBODY is going to be stupid enough to start WW3 not Russia not USA, they know they cannot win due to M.A.D.(mutually assured destruction).its all sabre rattling for home consumption.

[Tarrel]

Quote:Putin's latest actions on Crimea are, in my opinion, secondly a land-grab. Putin is not trying to expand Russia. If he was he wouldn't do it in that way. He would simply start buying land in other countries and renting that land out. Plus, he's got a fricking massive country as it is! He's not grabbing for land.

Yes, "Land Grab" is a misnomer. What he probably is doing however, is securing an important geopolitical pivot-point in Crimea, and avoiding the "NATO encirclement". Russia has always been paranoid about its borders, and the risk of invasion; probably because those borders are so vast and permeable.

The word for "security" in Russian is "безопасность" (bez opasnost) which is a negative construct, translating as "absence of danger", as though danger was the norm.

Oh, and there's the resources..

[BDG]

Chess playing response to NATO nations bluster and bluff in Syria. Not a lot we can do other than ask for another vote under scrutiny and financial compensation for those who are displaced.

Calm will be resumed in two years.