Slow or Fast Collapse

[River Song]

Just to move sideways from the Afgan discussion although related.

Up until now, I've always subscribed to the slow model of western collapse - bit by bit.

However, something in my gut tells me that things have changed over the last three days. The possibility of very fast collapse is real.

-river-

[Skean Dhude]

It's not over yet though. I don't see it being a collapse like the USSR did where the satellites all went their own way, I see civil war as each state goes its own way and tries to purge those who won't fit in. Many of those being purged won't queue up in cattle carts to be taken away and turned into glue. The second amendment was put in place to sort that very thing which is why every country in the world with professional politicians have disarmed the public as much as they can.

In 15 years the world will be a lot different and not, imo, in a better way.

[Joe]

I don't see a collapse as such but more a massive change to people living in high population areas. If you compare London 2021 for example and compare it to London 1970 then you can see the difference in cultural, criminal etc. If you then project this difference 20-30 years into the future then London will be a no go area for a lot of people.
Add to this the high influx of mainly illegal immigration and large parts of England will be comprised in 30 years time.
Personally I would't want to live in Afghan, Pakistan, India, this is a personal choice as I find these countries have an extremely high danger rate but in the future these citizens will be the majority in most large Uk cities and their customs and practices will come with them.
The Uk is changing very fast,maybe too fast for me. I feel my I might need to take the advice of many of you and start relocation to a more rural area.

[Mortblanc]

Joe, right now 35% of the occupants in London was born in a country not part of GB land area. That is not counting all of the children born of immigrants in the city. As much as half the London population?

14% for GB as a whole.

On the other focus: Are we specking of TEOTWAWKI or just your average SHTF situation. Preppers tend to confuse them and use the terms interchangeably.

Collapse due to war or invasion is not the same thing as slow decay from within and it is futile to compare the two and say it has to be one specific way. Although a war that is the final coup de gra is a common occurrence in the long scheme of things. Rome's collapse was evident from the 3rd Century but not official until conquest at the end of the 5th.

Instant change due to war, revolution, weather, or natural disaster follows no rules or formula. Even in WW2 there was a 6 month lag called the "phony war" before Germany invaded France. Hitler worked up to WW2 for 8 years before Poland. Everyone saw it, anyone with a brain knew what was happening. Was anyone ready?

The U.S was "suddenly and deliberately attacked" by Japan, after we had suspended all raw material shipments to them giving them a choice of attack or collapse. It has taken historians 80 years to uncover the knowledge of the long, slow road to war that should have been evident.

War, especially the late 20th and early 21st century wars, are usually a regional situation and it is expected that normalcy will return at some point in time. It may be devastating, life threatening and complete SHTF for the people in one small area and 50 miles away people are going about their normal lives. Same with weather, earthquakes, even famine.

The real bad part is when you were living a SHTF life already, hell knocks on your door, you survive, and the best you can expect is a return to the normal SHTF! Think Africa, Haiti, South Asia.

You can not compare that sudden localized transition to a collapse of the world system, which is what it would take for a TEOTWAWKI shift, unless it involved sudden unlimited nuke war.

Over here it is our hurricane season. That means there is a more than average chance for massive destruction, huge loss of life, shifts in population distribution and proof of the stupidity of local, state and Federal governments. SHTF in the truest sense of the term, but not EOTWAWKI.

It will affect you, in GB, not in the slightest. You should not prep for it nor worry about it. Just sit back and be glad it is not something you need to deal with.

[bigpaul]

unless its an EMP/solar storm or a nuclear strike I go with the slow collapse model.
a cascade or domino effect that take out one resource that affects a second, that in turn affects another and so on.
the great reset of society will come when the power grid is taken out, that wont take much in GB as the power grid is very fragile, anything that has power lines and transformers that go ABOVE ground is very easily shut down either by natural forces or deliberate human interference, even too much demand above supply will shut it down as has nearly happened during several winters past.
the great panic will come when people cannot access Facebook and the like then they will really go crazy.
crazy people do stupid things, stupid things that will kill them.

[Ajax]

Russia and Saudi Arabia are making moves against the US petrodollar, which a lot of countries rely upon. A further 130 countries have signed up to repudiate the US dollar. If that goes, then hyperinflation is a very real prospect. After that all bets are off.
There is a shortage of certain fresh produce, albeit imported, in rural UK where I live. I cannot comment on other areas as I don't travel. The last time this tactic was employed (not UK) the countryside was under armed occupation and families were starved at gunpoint and the city ate and was happy. It is easier to starve out a few peasants than to manage a full-scale citywide revolt.

I already left one 'survival' site because they did not allow free speech. Until a grown up discussion occurs about certain medical issues and the potential consequences of it, then all other chit-chat is arbitrary.

[bigpaul]

last time I went to Lidl the juice shelves were low as was the biscuit shelf but that was probably more to do with all the tourists than actual shortages itself.
it is said the UK is short of some 90,000 truck drivers but if you venture out of the local area all you see on the roads is trucks,trucks,trucks. there is no shortage of fruit and veg in my area.