What is a SHTF situation?

[Scythe13]

Hi everyone

Time for a lengthy half rant half educational bulletin....full of bad spelling.

First up, we always speak about WTSHTF....meaning, When The S**t Hits The Fan (WTSHTF....see how that works? Magical hu?).

Really, what the crap does that mean?!?!?!?


Let's play a game of scenarios.

Scenario 1.
You have a wife/husband/once-of-each and kids.
You work 9-5, and earn enough to pay the bills, but not enough to save for a rainy day.
You're try to prep for a catastrophic event, like a global pandemic or an EMP.
The next day you go to work and your boss hands you a P45. Company was making cuts, and your name was picked from a hat. (if you don't have a job and this scenario can't possibly apply to you, then shut up and realise it's a hypothetical scenario.....anyway, shouldn't you be checking Jobsite or Reed, instead of reading this post?)
You have enough money to pay the bills for the end of the month, but not enough to pay the bills after that.

Scenario 2.
You're shopping in your favourite, or least favourite, supermarket, and the front of the shop explodes.
You don't know whether it's a bomb, a car crash, or what.
There are injured people everywhere. Screaming hoards of people is the only thing you can hear above the loud buzzing sound in your ears.
You instinctively hit the deck.
When you get up, ears still ringing, you see smoke and people lay on the floor bleeding.

Scenario 3.
BOOSH!!! Big flash in the sky.
Your mobile phone shuts down.....but your battery was full?!?
Cars grind to a halt.
Traffic lights stop working.
Some idiot walks into closed electric doors.
Must be an EMP!

Scenario 4.
Alarm goes off at 6am, same as it does everyday (if your alarm doesn't go off, or you don't use an alarm clock, then this is still a hypothetical mental exercise, and you're still a bellend. It's a theoretical scenario...stop trying to be a knob. Or stop succeeding in being one.)
You get out of bed. Open your curtains. It's dark....but that's normal, it's winter. By the time it's midday, it's still dark!
WTF?!?!?!?

Scenario 5.
CRASH!!!!
You're in the middle of a car accident.
Damn that sucks!
You're fine, but there are 3 other cars in the accident.
There could well be injured people in those cars.



Which of these is a SHTF situation?

Correct. ALL OF THEM!!! Well done my clever bunnies (I love that expression).

The thing is, all of those situations are a SHTF situation.

If something happens that means you need to call an insurance company, then that can often be considered a SHTF situation too.

Any important EMERGENCY situation taking you out of your natural rhythm of life is considered a SHTF situation.

If your taxi doesn't turn up, is that a SHTF situation? NO, because it's not an emergency. What if that taxi was for a job interview? Even if you were in a Scenario 1 situation, in NEED of the job, then it wouldn't be taking you outside of your normal rhythm of life, because you'd still be job hunting. Change it round a bit, for example, you have a job. You want to go for a new job. Your taxi doesn't turn up and you miss your interview. The next day you return back to your normal job and get on with life. Yes it's a crap day, but no doody hit any wind creation devices! If you're unemployed and miss a taxi for a job, you return to being unemployed. See how that works?

THSTF when a situation changes your living situation for a worse scenario, that is dangerous, to some extent.

Take the example of the middle-east, with Israel and Palestine (I don't care who you're cheering for, so don't bother commenting as if I care) or the Syria conflict. If they kick off more than they're already at, will it be a SHTF situation? NO!!! (If you argue against this, then you clearly have no understanding of reading a whole post before opening your stupid mouth!!! Wow, that was an aggressive preemptive strike haha. It's not meant at anyone, and I'm watching the situation too, so don't be hating on me) The situation has escalated, YES, but until it becomes something that effects the way your rhythm of daily life is flowing, it's not a SHTF situation.

Were the London riots considered a SHTF situation? If you're in London, then I'd say so. Over in Scotland, nobody gave a toss. Go to Reading or Cornwall, and even there, nobody gave a screw about it. It was little more than interesting news. For some people in London, it's was also little more than "Interesting News".

See where I'm going with this?

Okay, here's a fun one for you all to laugh at my expense.

The other day I'd finished a 12hour shift, then while driving home, my car decided to stop working....at 00:05am, with a 2 degree outside temp. I ended up walking over 5 miles, in the dark, with a bit of rain, for about 3 hours, where just below an hour was pushing the car back and forth, alone, trying to jump start the car, by myself....in smart shoes. Clearly this was not one of my finer moments of life. Changed my clothes and walked home, leaving my car by the side of the road, to be rescued later in the day (which it was. All sorted and working now).

Was that a SHTF scenario for me?

HELL NO!!!
Was it an emergency? Yes, in a way.
Did it change my life rhythm? A bit.
Was it important? Not really; because instead of driving home, I just walked.
Was I in danger? No. I had ample clothing, fitness, and lighting to get home; as well as my phone to call the wife should something important enough to wake her up occurred.
Even though it was a crap situation, and it sucked to be me at that time, the S**t didn't hit the fan. I was just having a crap day.

In a SHTF scenario, just because something bad has happened, it doesn't mean the whole world stops functioning.

Let's pretend we go into a financial depression. Just because we're in a depression, the world doesn't stop. Wars don't randomly break out. The earth doesn't stop turning. People don't all do nuts and start looting and killing each other.

Yes stuff happens, but 2007-2008 was a financial collapse, and the vast majority of people just got on with life. A depression would have the same effect. People would still have jobs (obviously not everyone) and lifestyles would have to tighten up a little. But the world doesn't flip and go mad every time there's a SHTF situation.

A SHTF scenario or situation, can be localised, and not all (I'd go as far to say, the vast majority) of situations will be VERY short term (9/11, Katrina, London riots, London Bombs, Superstorm Sandy, tsunami's, etc) as in less than 2 weeks. But many long term situations will also not be huge world flipper situations.

The boring scenarios are the most common ones. So we should prep for them most. The ones that are fun to prep for, are also the ones that are less likely to occur.

[Bjm]

Hi,
Was I in danger? No. I had ample clothing, fitness, and lighting to get home; as well as my phone to call the wife

Looks like your prepping for the WTSHTF, is working well to me, perhaps carry a pair of boots in your car for the
next time.and maybe some scoobie snacks.

Not evreyone has extra clothing lighting and the fitness for such a walk.......8 out of 10 lol

[Scythe13]

(11 December 2012, 00:28)Bjm Wrote: Hi,
Was I in danger? No. I had ample clothing, fitness, and lighting to get home; as well as my phone to call the wife

Looks like your prepping for the WTSHTF, is working well to me, perhaps carry a pair of boots in your car for the
next time.and maybe some scoobie snacks.

Not evreyone has extra clothing lighting and the fitness for such a walk.......8 out of 10 lol

I had a total change of clothes, but forgot about them until I looked in the back for my jacket, to walk home, then found the change of clothes. Quite embarrassing forgetting what you've got in your car haha.

[Bjm]

Hi
Make that 9 out of ten, prepping without thinking, second nature eh? lol
Your not the only one with a boot full of unknowns, theres lots of us out there.

[BDG]

WTSHTF is a chain reaction - no matter what you do to deal with the initial problem, it is very likely a further problem will occur no matter the plan of action to deal with the first problem and the further problem(s) will impact upon your response to the first problem.

[SealDriver]

An interesting article...thank you!

I do wonder if when the SHTF if some people will just say 'No...sorry this isn't what I am prepping for, put all that stuff back we will need it when the REAL SHTF event comes'!

The way I look at it is this and it's due mostly to my life in the Royal Navy.....We would be sailing around in a great big expensive war canoe when say, we get caught up in a hurricane....we had the equipment onboard to manage that situation....no problem, a near by island is wrecked and the population need help again no problem we are equipped to help. Then as we are going along a fishing boat 'Maydays' because it's sinking...again we are there to help no problem.

So what I am saying is....if you are of the mindset and if you have some basic kit and the knowledge of how to use it then you will always be okay....hoarding you food and equipment for one type of event will always put you firmly in the 'Du..du'. Where possible I use my equipment where I can and if I haven't got it I know who can lend it to me and this all comes from my training.

It's the same as my food supply, I have a set rotating food menu so that for every two weeks I know what I will be eating, plenty of choice but it allows me to rotate my food and makes more of my money because I can budget better, I also plan to eat exactly the same way should the SHTF. I have some emergency rations stowed away but apart from that with careful planing my food as it is will last me six months at least.

Drastically changing your lifestyle when the SHTF isn't good. IMHO living as if a situation is part of your daily life works better, one foot in the water so to speak.

Your best prepper tool is a well organised mind.

[BeardyMan]

Scenario 1: NSHTF (No SHTF) - the government will pay. There are other ways to make money. You cant get evicted / services shut off for missing 1 monthly payment.

Scenario 2: NSHTF - You're still alive and in good health. Now you can sue the supermarket, and pay the bills from scenario 1. Or leave with a full trolley when no one is looking.

Scenario 3: SHTF

Scenario 4: SHTF (Or you got up 12 hours early)

Scenario 5: NSHTF - You're still alive, providing you haven't killed anyone, weren't pissed and the cops don't pay too much attention to your boot full of.supplies it's a minor hiccup.

All depends on your world outlook I suppose?

[Highlander]

The phase SHTF is often over used, or used in the wrong text or at least it is for me,... I was inside the Belfast bus station when the bomb went off ....in 1969 was it?,.. yes I am that old,...there were bodies and body parts all over the place,... I didnt think that was the SHTF, it was just something that needed dealing with,...and was becomeing normal at around that time

SHTF has to be something that is out of the normal, that has to be effecting,.. not your life, but the way you have to live your life from that point on, no matter what the emergency is,.. if at the end of the day everything returns to normal, then the s**t didnt hit the fan

[Scythe13]

(11 December 2012, 09:00)Highlander Wrote: SHTF has to be something that is out of the normal, that has to be effecting,.. not your life, but the way you have to live your life from that point on, no matter what the emergency is,.. if at the end of the day everything returns to normal, then the s**t didnt hit the fan

I really agree with that. The only thing I would add, would be a timescale to the amount of time you have to live in the changed way.

[SealDriver]

(11 December 2012, 10:36)Scythe13 Wrote:

(11 December 2012, 09:00)Highlander Wrote: SHTF has to be something that is out of the normal, that has to be effecting,.. not your life, but the way you have to live your life from that point on, no matter what the emergency is,.. if at the end of the day everything returns to normal, then the s**t didnt hit the fan

I really agree with that. The only thing I would add, would be a timescale to the amount of time you have to live in the changed way.

Also what is considered normal? For me it would be a lot different from someone else.