Moneyweek article, The end of Britain, Economic collapse

[cryingfreeman]

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Never ever think land is going to go down in price. I will stand you anything that over any two year period, the cost of land will not fall - it is always going to increase, at least for mine and your lifetimes unless we are in such a situation where private contracts cannot be enforced.

Potatoes have had a bigger % increase than gold this last three months.

By which you mean farm land. Because development land does indeed fall in value - in NI it has fallen 90% plus from 2007, wiping out many investors and leaving the banks who lent them the cash on their knees.

[Scythe13]

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: A tax lawyer and an accountant are financial planners, for they help to get the best return for their clients. They employ the services of fun managers - sure, they play different markets themselves, but only with what they know they can afford to lose - they have someone else behind the scenes managing a lot more than that.

Really?!?! Are you telling me that the richest people on earth, the greatest entrepreneurs on the planet, Buffet, Gates, Slim, Trump, Oprah (damn that woman's rich), The Waltons, Allen, Soros, Branson (yes, even Beardy-Branson has gone for PM's, but decided he could make more money buying other businesses and branding them as Virgin), and the alike, are using hedge-fund or investment-fund managers?!?! I'm trying to be serious about this and not joke around like that.

The rich are the ones that own the fund companies, rich are not their customers. The general public are the customers. The rich do have advisors, but not financial planners!!! I don't know many financial planners that turn round and say "Build a business", which is exactly what made the rich....rich. The reason they're rich is because they don't just blindly listen to the advisors and act on what they say. They're rich because they hear the advice and make their own decisions on their own understandings. IF FA's or IFA's were that great, they'd all be super-rich....but they're not. The reason a broker is called a broker is because they're broker than we are haha.

Year on year, over 90% of funds under perform the FTSE100!!! Hmm, sounds like a great investment plan to me! I'm sure the rich people can see that too...oh wait, they do. Investment funds are for schmucks! If you think they're that great, check out how well pension funds are playing out right now. There are VERY few that consistently out perform the market average. As Buffet says, "How can so many people perform in an under average way?"

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Now, think of you, the average man in the street or a prepper who buys metals. The % of their cash invested in metals is much higher than the big fellas.

Not always true, as at one point a few decades ago Buffet took everything out of the stock market and went 100% PM's. He's been in the top 5 richest people on earth for a while now. Seemed a good thing to do back then when the market was allowing for such investments. He sold out and made a huge profit. Looks like he's back on that end of the cycle.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Your average man in the street is more vulnerable to market fluctuation do to the smaller amount of other investments.

Not sure how that works. If a price drops from £1.00 to £0.80, that's a 20% loss, regardless of whether you have £500 invested, or £50million.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: And the slump I mentioned is the slump that will come in metal prices when the markets are flooded with metals when countries who are heavily export dependant on exports are exporting a lot less.

I partially agree with that. When PM's are pumped back into the market, there will be a price drop. Probably quite a dramatic drop. I'm not greedy, and hopefully would have cashed out before then. I can't guarantee that, but nor can anyone else. It's a carefully calculated risk.

It's also a great time to buy back, if you're happy to wait another 25 years for a PM boom.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Never ever think land is going to go down in price. I will stand you anything that over any two year period, the cost of land will not fall - it is always going to increase, at least for mine and your lifetimes unless we are in such a situation where private contracts cannot be enforced.

Never is a very long word, but I 98% agree. Going down in price and going up in affordability are different things, but along the same lines. Land will always be expensive in the UK, no doubt. But houses do go up and down in price. That's why I'm looking at freehold housing for when I cash out of my PM's.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Potatoes have had a bigger % increase than gold this last three months.

That's really cool! I don't know about potatoes and investing in those types of commodities, so I've left that part of the market. With all the crazy weather going on, I reckon corn and wheat will probably go up as well, but since I've not been following those markets and don't know whether the price jump has already occurred from the investors buying in, to when the slow-money comes in for a quick buck (then loses as the price drops once the real investors have sold out), so I won't be doing that.

Only invest in something you know about. PM's, stocks/shares (only selected sectors though, as it's a huge market!!!), and property (residential, not business) are what I've been taught and am constantly learning about. Food commodities isn't something I've looked at before, and I don't plan on checking them out as I'm probably stretching myself too thin as it is with the above investment info. Could go for the ETF's, but since they are fund-ran, they're going to have costs that make them unprofitable. Wait.....haven't we gone full circle to how crap funds are?

[BDG]

(9 January 2013, 18:13)Scythe13 Wrote: Really?!?! Are you telling me that the richest people on earth, the greatest entrepreneurs on the planet, Buffet, Gates, Slim, Trump, Oprah (damn that woman's rich), The Waltons, Allen, Soros, Branson (yes, even Beardy-Branson has gone for PM's, but decided he could make more money buying other businesses and branding them as Virgin), and the alike, are using hedge-fund or investment-fund managers?!?! I'm trying to be serious about this and not joke around like that.

Why are you putting words in my mouth? Where did I say hedge fund or investment fund manager?

Do you know what the single most profitable but risky financial investment is? You do know that you cannot ask to be part of it, but instead you are asked if you want to be part of it?

No one, no matter who they were would invest without due diligence. Not one of the people that you mention run their companies without an FD in each. You know what companies do when they have a surplace of cash - the invest it - wether that be on something really safe like putting it on crown deposit, or they use it to play more risky markets.

Please, do not as you have repeatedly done take the definition of a fund manager so narrowly - you are only showing you are going off what you are reading in a magazine rather than having experience of being in such situations to see this happen.

Such people do use the services of 'normal' members of the financial industry on occasions - a lot of investments they are making are long term and not for their direct benefit. I am yet to hear of a member of the super rich who is passing legacies onto their children and other beneficiaries in gold.

(9 January 2013, 18:13)Scythe13 Wrote: Year on year, over 90% of funds under perform the FTSE100!!! Hmm, sounds like a great investment plan to me! I'm sure the rich people can see that too...oh wait, they do. Investment funds are for schmucks! If you think they're that great, check out how well pension funds are playing out right now. There are VERY few that consistently out perform the market average. As Buffet says, "How can so many people perform in an under average way?"

You are making assumptions again. As I said above, one of, if not the place to get the best return, you cannot ask to be part of, you are invited.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Now, think of you, the average man in the street or a prepper who buys metals. The % of their cash invested in metals is much higher than the big fellas.

(9 January 2013, 18:13)Scythe13 Wrote: Not always true, as at one point a few decades ago Buffet took everything out of the stock market and went 100% PM's. He's been in the top 5 richest people on earth for a while now. Seemed a good thing to do back then when the market was allowing for such investments. He sold out and made a huge profit. Looks like he's back on that end of the cycle.

Now, do you want to respond to what you appear to be trying to do in a relevant way? If it is always true or not is irrelevant. If it is true on average is.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Your average man in the street is more vulnerable to market fluctuation do to the smaller amount of other investments.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: Not sure how that works. If a price drops from £1.00 to £0.80, that's a 20% loss, regardless of whether you have £500 invested, or £50million.

Because your average man on the street will be more likely to invest all he has to invest in one area rather than spreading it.

(8 January 2013, 20:01)BDG Wrote: I partially agree with that. When PM's are pumped back into the market, there will be a price drop. Probably quite a dramatic drop. I'm not greedy, and hopefully would have cashed out before then. I can't guarantee that, but nor can anyone else. It's a carefully calculated risk.

It's also a great time to buy back, if you're happy to wait another 25 years for a PM boom.

Only if you get off the bus at the right time. Validating your own investment stratergies by the success of those who are:

1. Weeks if not months ahead of magazine articles about what they do

and

2. Influencing the market so prices may raise

and

3. Influencing the markets to make credit for venture capital investments cheaper for themselves

does not say why you do what you do. I could tell you all about how Gazza or Beckham or Robson played football in their prime, but I do not think Manchester United are asking for my telephone number.

Now, back to MY point.

From a being prepared point of view, gold, silver or any other precious metal is one of the last things you should be thinking about, not the first. If it offends you that I think this, you are free to bring up what others have done to validate your feelings on the matter, but the simple fact of the matter is, if you get caught with your trousers down and TSHTF and all you have is gold, expect two things:

1. Those with food might not or will not sell it to you

2. Those with the will and the weapons might use them to take your gold

Until you are well on the way to having enough food or the means to produce it for an indefinite period and the means to defend yourself from all reasonable attacks, buying something that is neither storable food, the means to produce it or the means to defend it is - well, it is what it is.

[Skean Dhude]

and with that I think this thread is going around in circles on PM which is done to death. So let's stop here and keep it on topic.