What situations would cause you to bug out?

[Scythe13]

Hi Everyone

The more I think about these things, the more 'off' (probably semi sceptical would be a better use of expression) and uncertain I am about what situations would make me move away.

The more I think about it, the more I think 'a move to Southern Italy' would be a better 'bugging out' system than running to the hills. Would involve a microlight for a channel crossing or small plane for a majority of the journey, but they're not in the pipeline for quite a while!!!

What would you but out for? I'd like genuine scenarios, not BS answers like "I'll bug out when bugging in is too dangerous". That's a total cop-out answer that says "I've not thought out the process and possibilities of when I'd have to bug out!" Example of what I mean.....I'll bug out when it's too dangerous to stay bugging in.....When exactly is that? Or have you not thought that out? Will there be riots 2 miles away? Will there be looters 3 doors away? Will it be when neighbours are fighting over a generator? Will it be when you're down to 10% of your stored food? Or what? You can't say "Each scenario must be taken differently" because as true as that is, it's also a cop out answer that says "I'm not sure yet, but will wing it when it happens." Either that, or it says "I've not thought that out enough and don't have set parameters yet as to when to cut my losses and leave." This also smacks of not being organised enough.....in my opinion.

If the answer really is "When it's too dangerous to bug in" then you're an idiot and are living in a fantasy world and have not thought out scenarios that are outside of your fantasy world's comfortable limits.

When would you bug out? When is it too dangerous? What's your point of "Okay, pack up, grab the bags, we're heading off"?

[Rush2112]

we're out when we see mobs and/or law enforcement going house to house and taking what they want raping/pillaging. What are we going to do against a group of 15? all they need to do is light the place on fire and wait for us to come running out. its a tough call when to leave, but better too early than too late. I want to stay home, but if everyone around is starving dont think its realistic to expect they would leave us eat in peace. Probably have to leave within a week or two of the event, when people are getting very hungry and realizing no one is coming to help.

[Luci_ferson]

soon people aim an violence towards each other .
il be planning on bugging out.

[Skean Dhude]

Well Scythe I think that when it is too dangerous is an answer but I've obviously not got the right stuff. The reason is that there are so many triggers that could make me move that I really would have to make up my mind on the spot. I do have certain criterion but they are too numerous to mention as there are so many variables.

Please list what your complete list of triggers are for bugging out and no cop-outs please. Please be exact so we know how well you have thought these out.

[Highlander]

I really cant see any reasons for us to bug out,... we have supplies and the ability to get food, so no need to go for food reasons,...

there are so few people around these parts that I couldn't see any danger coming from people as a reason

Pandemic/medical infection,.. well we are probably in the best place to ride that out already,...the same for something like fallout, the wind normaly blowing from the sea and away from us

The only slight reason for bugging out, might come through a serious injury,.. but even today we are over 50 miles from medical help, so moving for this reason seems very remote after the shtf

[Lightspeed]

If you mean Bugging Out as in living in the open with just the contents of BOBs, our trigger would be the moment we consider the lives of our group to be in real and immediate peril.

Bugging out for us is a last ditch survival tactic. A desperate measure, carrying exceptional high risk. We only consider it when all other options are exhausted.

Examples:

A mob too large to defend against systematically looting houses one after the other in our immediate area. Ours is next in line... so we evacuate.
A bona fide hostile military intent to aggressively take over our house. We're not going to be able to defend against this threat.
Major fire too big to fight. We get out with whatever we can salvage and only return to recover cached gear after its burned out completely.

[Scythe13]

Fair enough SD.

When I can hear the rioting and looting, that's a sign it's definitely time to get out! If I can see them, it's probably too late. Considering where we live, we would have prior visual warning, because of our proximity to a main road.

If a mob was at our front door, it would obviously be too late. However, we do have a large garden, thus allowing us to grab what we can and run down out the bottom of the garden.

Depending on the situation, if there was a weather related situation, I don't think we'd ever bug out. Where we live is well sheltered from most things. We saw our first snowflakes today, and the micro-climate around here keeps us better than the average. We're up a hill as well, so protected from flooding!

In a power out situation, we wouldn't bother bugging out. We're hoping to get some 'suitcase' mini generators, which wouldn't go on until everyone else had bugged out and left already. They're meant to be ultra quiet, but the risk might not be worth it early on.

In a financial situation, if the government were going door to door, we'd be out as soon as the rumours started. Grab our stuff, and head to the hills. We'd be able to set up a reasonable location below the horizon from our house and thus be able to watch the house and everything going on around it.

If it was a food shortage, again, I'm not sure bugging out would be a good idea. It'd make more sense and you'd attract less attention if you stayed home. Grabbing a bag and heading out would attract undue attention, unless done at night. In that instance, we could stay home for about 2 days, but if we started to hear riots, looting, or even large amounts of commotion, it would be wise to head out then. But even in those situations, staying put does seem to make more sense for a while.

Being an arson situation, I'd assume people would start their 'fun' at the other end of the street, so we'd have some warning of when our house would be hit. This is unlikely to happen, as there are other places near by that will be hit first, thus giving us much more warning that we need to get out.

A chemical spill or something like that, would mean a very hasty leave home run, and then return when it's safe.

If it was a WW3 situation, again, I'm not sure bugging out would really be required. If the country was invaded, I'd love the idea of becoming a resistance fighter in a militia......but we all know that's a fantasy and not going to happen haha. A country invasion would be a pretty quick event, and if we're looking to be invaded, we'll probably end up being drafted as it is. So, once rumours of drafting appear, that's when we'll be bugging out.


If you leave it beyond the rumour, odds are you're going to leave a little too late.

[Luci_ferson]

the newspapers make out that England is full of jihadi warriors all waiting to attack.
if they are right, id assume these groups would spring up suddenly at the first wiff of governmental collapse.
As soon as people pushed back against these groups it wouldn't take long before a full scale holy war did break out.
So the idea of a full scale war in uk however unlikely is still possible.
Theres many that believe weve already been invaded, its just the fighting hasn't started yet.
I just hope theyre wrong. cos I don't think bugging out would help much.

[Scythe13]

With these answers, I'm curious how people will know an angry mob is coming. It's something I used to say and have been thinking about quite a bit recently.

If you live in the middle of nowhere, like HL does, then you're not going to get the same kind of warning that someone living in the corner of an estate like BP will. BP will be able to see the first few houses pluming flames. I'm not sure about HL's full situation, but I could imagine you're probably "that beautiful house up in the hills" that people see and like the look of. So you're hidden enough to not become a target, but also remote enough to not get much of a warning (one of the problems of seclusion).

I used to think, 'When I see a mob coming, I'm heading out the house.' But after a while, I started to figure, how will I know they're coming? Will it be on the local news? Will I get a phone call from TPTB? Will I see them coming in person? Will a neighbour bring news? How will I know?!?!

The best I've come up with is signs that they've screwed over other houses in the area. So, seeing signed like plumes of smoke, a riot-like sound, loads of police sirens, etc. Having said that, those sounds are all easy enough to hear separately from a SHTF situation.

As I'm writing this I'm considering the viability of building a 'look out' spot in the loft, with CB radio, and having tiles that I can lift up and look through to see over trees and the alike. Might not be possible, but if things start to get bad, would make for a decent look out. Better than looking out the front window, I guess.

I'm genuinely not having a go at anyone. I'm curious and am wondering what things people are using as signs for when it's time to bug out.

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For me, this is all about "The Plan". We all make plans (I assume). But I'm just wondering about what things people are looking for, and what their system is for deciding when Plan B will be executed.

[Skean Dhude]

(25 March 2013, 17:23)Scythe13 Wrote: Depending on the situation
I'd assume people would start their 'fun' at the other end of the street, A chemical spill or something like that, would mean a very hasty leave home run, and then return when it's safe.
If it was a WW3 situation, again, I'm not sure bugging out would really be required.

Lot of cop-out situations there mate. These mean wait and see and not genuine scenarios.

Assuming as well. Tut tut.

There is an old saying that you should be considering. No plan survives first contact with the enemy. It means that whatever your plans are you usually have to adjust them to fit the current situation. It means that you can't set a finite limit on some things. For example, sell gold when it hits 20K an oz. Great you can set that and leave it but Bug Out when there is a mob at the end of your street. How many is a Mob anyway, what if they are heading away from your home, what if they are all sick and dying and just passing through, what if your community has banded together and there are thirty of you in your home all armed with SMGs?

It is unrealistic making plans down to such a point. You make general guidelines and you follow them. So you have prepare BoBs and you keep your vehicle fuelled up and watch what is going on but you don't want to just follow procedures set in place for one scenario that doesn't suit the one you are in.

Sure think about as many things as you can but each one must be treated on its merits or you are going to over or undereact just when you need to have a cool head.

If you want though you could list the 50 main scenarios that may occur and the 50,000 sub scenarios from each that may impact you and plan for each one but it is going to be a pretty boring task and finding your instructions when it occurs may be an issue especially if you are not at home.

You can only plan so much, the rest is adaptation.