The Collapse of Society.

[John]

The Collapse of Society.
I see that like one discussion on communications, Post TU Comms / Groups and Villages and in other discussions some want to keep or get back to our modern technological way of life as soon after SHTF as they can. Mainly I suspect because they can’t see a life without it. Some want to use it, while they can so that future generations might have a better life than just reverting to the Stone Age. This is admirable and I agree. Others hope that ‘normality will return’ and we can carry on as we were, but may be with less people. And some just hope it all got to pot and never come back. Mind you they appear to mainly have the thought that whatever happens it will be a rosy lovely life.
Let try to consider some facts, may be unpalatable ones. But before I do, I want to say that I really do appreciate how difficult it is to believe this and many, even though they say not, are really in denial, and please no stupid comments about the river in Egypt. That will just prove my point but I doubt some will see it that way.

OK, back to the facts.
In a SHTF situation be it a slow or quick collapse one thing is certain, if it starts slowly it will get quicker. Electricity is the king pin to our beloved way of life. If it goes then everything else will surely go.
There are three main things that keep our way of life going.
(1) Power, that is electric, gas, fuel etc.
(2) Finance, that is banks, mortgages, credit cards, stock market, even cash, etc. etc.
(3) Communications, that is the Internet, telephones, mobile phones, emails, electronic bank transfers etc.

Now consider if any one of three fails.
First let’s take electricity, which as I said is the king pin.
Firstly, if the electric stops so does your finance. No more holes in wall, no more credit cards working, no more wages or pensions into your bank account. Etc.
Next, no more communications. No more mobile phones, no more battery recharging, except for a little solar, no more Internet or emails, no telephone, no more dialling 999.

Lastly, no power means no electric to pump the fuel, run the many processing plants, no more pumped water or sewage, no lights, no heat, no traffic lights, no TV, etc.
No more medical services or hospitals.
No more food at the shops/supermarket, no more jobs, no more income.

Now we come to another consideration.
That of the number of people.
Let us assume that this is a slow collapse. As the collapse proceeds the number of people reporting for work will decrease, this means that at some time the electric will stop, the banks will not open, the phones will stop because there is no one to work or man them. And so it will get worse and worse.

The problem will be that with the massive die-off, (I know you won’t be one) (You hope), there will be a major loss of the skill base to do any of the jobs that are done. Beside facts like if you don’t get food you don’t even feel like working.

What about drinking water, think of all that disease and the dead not being buried.

OK, you and your little domain may have solar panels, mini hydro or mini wind power. Not only would this be problematic for a long term future in that you will at some time run out of spares but that supposes that you will have the skill to repair the part that has gone bust. On top of this any light that could be seen, in the darkness would be like a beacon saying ‘free food here’.

The thing is, an you can research it for yourself if you wish, don’t take my word for it, but as this society goes down the pan then there will be no way we can go back to anywhere near what we have now.
How can I be sure of this? The current state of civilization is dependent on resources that are now so depleted, that they require an industrial infrastructure already in place to gather those resources.

When coal was first used as a fuel, it could simply be picked off the ground. Those surface deposits were quickly used up. When those were gone, coal mining began. It was more costly, but as coal became a necessary fuel, the cost was justified. The shallowest mines were exploited first. As they ran out, miners turned to deeper and deeper mines. Today's mines are often hundreds of feet below ground, with access tunnels that must burrow through miles of earth. Mining so far below the earth is a dangerous job, made possible only by industrial machinery for ventilation, stabilization, and digging. We can fetch this fossil fuel only because we have fossil fuels to put to the task.

Again, the issue of peak oil leaves significant quantities of oil still in the ground. But it is deep in the earth, or under the sea, and often of a poorer quality, requiring more refinement. We can drill and refine this oil only because we have industrial equipment to build rigs and power.
We will no longer be able to access all this and more post SHTF and we will not have the people to do it. We cannot rebuild this society as it was, or anywhere as it was.

This time it will not be a return to the Dark Ages; it will be a return to the Stone Age.
So having said that, what are your informed views?

[NorthernRaider]

Another day another appraisal, Bleak but very interesting but I disagree with much of it, we would not in any way or form resort to the stone age, at worst it would be the Victorian / Edwardian period.

Pumps can by driven by horses, water wheels, steam engines and slaves if neccessary
Banks did not rely on electronic comms before the late 1960s, we would just resort to slow speed banking of the type seen on many tv dramas.

And of course this relies on the BIG IF of the countries entire power system failing which is most unlikely.

Interesting post thanks for sharing.
No more communications !!!!, strange but why can we not resort to posting letters or telegraph systems? The few hydro electric stations in the UK generate enough power to run the entire cold war phone system and much more.

No more water and sewage yet Britains greatest water movement, sewage pumping, water filtration systems were water/ steam and coal powered so in time we could ressurect those systems, ineed if one looks alone at the number of certified seam boilers fiited to locomotives on preserved railways today their are more around now than in the 1900s.

Drinking water, over a third of the UKs water comes from clean mountain or spring supplies like Kielder so fresh safe drinking water should be available in many areas such as Mid to North Wales, Cumbria, Durham, Northumberland and much of Scotland and much of it is gravity fed to this day.

There are currently over i million PV panels in use in the UK at this time, they have a minimum working life of 25 years. Verical axis wind turbines have almost no working parts , just the egg wisk blade, pully to belt to pully to alternator via solid state rectifier, the hard ship will be finding enough deep cycle batteries I think.

Yup I agree the numbers of sheeple will fall greatly from disease and conflict.

You are completely wrong about coal, in Durham and Northumberland many new shallow open cast coal mines have opened in the last few years. In parts of the NE there are millions of toons of easily accessible coal just under the surface, its not been mined before now because of environmental and political pressures, primarily the coal is under the land of the rich estate owners.

Fracking is likely to produce trillions of units of gas in the near future as well if the green idiots stay out of it.

I think its going to be an uncomfortable five to ten year period before stability and supply meets demand after a full societal collapse.

[Sunna]

(14 June 2013, 16:18)NorthernRaider Wrote: Another day another appraisal, Bleak but very interesting but I disagree with much of it, we would not in any way or form resort to the stone age, at worst it would be the Victorian / Edwardian period.

Pumps can by driven by horses, water wheels, steam engines and slaves if neccessary
Banks did not rely on electronic comms before the late 1960s, we would just resort to slow speed banking of the type seen on many tv dramas.

And of course this relies on the BIG IF of the countries entire power system failing which is most unlikely.

Interesting post thanks for sharing.
No more communications !!!!, strange but why can we not resort to posting letters or telegraph systems? The few hydro electric stations in the UK generate enough power to run the entire cold war phone system and much more.

No more water and sewage yet Britains greatest water movement, sewage pumping, water filtration systems were water/ steam and coal powered so in time we could ressurect those systems, ineed if one looks alone at the number of certified seam boilers fiited to locomotives on preserved railways today their are more around now than in the 1900s.

Drinking water, over a third of the UKs water comes from clean mountain or spring supplies like Kielder so fresh safe drinking water should be available in many areas such as Mid to North Wales, Cumbria, Durham, Northumberland and much of Scotland and much of it is gravity fed to this day.

There are currently over i million PV panels in use in the UK at this time, they have a minimum working life of 25 years. Verical axis wind turbines have almost no working parts , just the egg wisk blade, pully to belt to pully to alternator via solid state rectifier, the hard ship will be finding enough deep cycle batteries I think.

Yup I agree the numbers of sheeple will fall greatly from disease and conflict.

You are completely wrong about coal, in Durham and Northumberland many new shallow open cast coal mines have opened in the last few years. In parts of the NE there are millions of toons of easily accessible coal just under the surface, its not been mined before now because of environmental and political pressures, primarily the coal is under the land of the rich estate owners.

Fracking is likely to produce trillions of units of gas in the near future as well if the green idiots stay out of it.

I think its going to be an uncomfortable five to ten year period before stability and supply meets demand after a full societal collapse.

good reply
thanks

[Grumpy Grandpa]

(14 June 2013, 15:51)John Wrote: "please no stupid comments"

"The problem will be that with the massive die-off, (I know you won’t be one) (You hope)"

"you and your little domain"

I don't think I'll respond to this post other than to say it's just a little too 'down the nose' and 'holier than thou' for my taste. Thanks - but no thanks.

[bigpaul]

all of this has been said before, I see nothing new in this thread or any new ways of overcoming it.

[NorthernRaider]

I think its utterly wrong for any of us who consider ourselves commited to the cause to assume anything about the effects of an economic or societal collapse, At best we can make edumucated guesses but taking electricty for example I find it almost impossible to imagine a scenario that saw every state and private generator get knocked off line.

Multiple Nuclear plants
Multiple Coal fired plants
Multiple Gas fired plants
Multiple biomass fired plants
Multiple hydro electric systems
Thousands of wind turbines and millions of PV panels
Not to mention the countless numbers of indepenandt generators owned by individuals, companies and hospitals etc.

I can easily forsee houses left in the dark for weeks up to years and only hospitals, schools, essential services getting juice. I just cannot forsee Johns conclusions ??

[bigpaul]

I can see the power going off indefinitely if not forever, lack of investment by various governments, just look at the debacle over the nuclear power stations most of which are well over their shut down dates, a really bad winter could pull all the overhead lines down, some of the sub stations have been known to blow transformers, any one or more of these things could come to pass.

---

a really bad winter coupled with some bad storms...uprooting trees, flooding and blowing roofs off with a flu type pandemic mixed in should do it I reckon!

[Highlander]

I agree,.. nice post, but I also dont agree with it,.. I think NR covered it all, so no need to repeat any of it,... We can talk about the power going out, but the power will never all go out, Hydro will still work wave power will still be there and the simple wind turbine will still produce,... people will simply build on whats left,... and those with the expertise will bite the bullet and eventually rebuild

I agree with you ,. Electricity is the king pin, that's why the people in the know, be they scientists, or clever bumpkins,..will find a way to go from the small electric producers that will still be working, to once again powering cites

I spent the first part of my life without electric,...its not the end of the world, the world still spun around, and people advanced

[Straight Shooter]

I would want the simpler life anyway , and would steer my group along these lines for as long as I could, life would be relevant to the skills needed to provide and support it, the life style would be what you can make with what you have around you or move to it, I realize that progress will be slow, with some people trying to introduce forms of power , farming, and medical services, but even this will not last that long due to spare parts or skill to make them as already covered in the replies , people like us have knowledge and a lot of skills that could guide others 1 of us would be worth 100 sheeple, provided we survive the violence and mayhem and the unpredictable frightened sheeple who will just kill and take in the moment with no thought of sustainable living.

[Timelord]

A lot of the technological equipment we use today is built to a price and is not designed to last that long. Many of the technological parts are made out of relatively rare materials or constructed in such a way that requires an underpinning technological production facility to make it. A lot of it is now shipped into this country from far away. Obviously sourcing spares from the environment is possible but for how long can this go on before you run out? I would envisage that much of any local production facilities could be rendered unserviceable due to a whole host of possible scenarios inc looting & fire.
It takes a lot - a large widespread industrial underpinning to maintain the infrastructure we have today. If much of that underpinning goes down the pan or is inaccessible, then how would any ability to maintain limited industrial age systems fare in the longer term? Just what could be maintained by a vastly reduced underpinning industrial capability and also a possibly vastly reduced skill base? Could certain aspects be safely "ring fenced" as a necessity or is this wishful thinking in the aftermath of some big event? What is more important or comes first, the ability to maintain shelter and provide food or the quest to restore some level of infrastructure/systems? Who is going to do this or will they have the time besides their other necessary daily tasks? I don't know myself... Just surviving and the continuation of this may take up a large part of our manpower. Will the hydro-electric workers and nuclear power station workers and any other previously mentioned resource workers still be available and willing to return to their previous posts? Who will provide for their families if they are busy running plant? This means division of labour and the ability to organise it. It also means there will have to be enough produce to go around. In other words, what I am saying is that for an individual to perform a specialized task, the rest of the group or society must be able to provide for them and possibly their dependents. Generally in any society through history, for a group to thrive, a surplus of resource must be produced to allow for flexibility and division of labour. Everything else builds on top of this in layers up to where we are today. Sure, in modern times we are aware of and can take many short cuts, missing out the vast majority of stages our ancestors had to go through, but it is still a long process to build up from a serious knock back.
Our whole technological age is linked to industry which is supported by financial economics, which in turn is dependent on the sheer number of people alive today. If you drastically chop away parts of this equation, then the ability to support any of it falls away at the same time. PSHTF the scale of economics will be unlikely to favour any immediate or even mid term Techno infrastructure rebuilding. However if we have some type of partial collapse (which may seem at the time to be a complete collapse) as has happened with empires in history, then our society could emerge out the other end somewhat altered but still tied to its recent past. This would still be a very painful and seemingly at the time drawn out period. Only from the perspective of a later historical view would it appear more cohesive and possibly worthwhile. Anyone caught up in it would certainly be & feel - "put through the mill" :-)
These are just my musings on one aspect of the post. Regards, TL