Is it possible to stay put when you're near London?

[Rachel_K]

Apologies if this is not the correct forum.

I want to start preparing for a disaster but I keep getting stuck at the very start - should we stay or run? I would really appreciate your thoughts.

We live in Sutton, S London, in what would otherwise be a pretty well-placed community I think. The community spirit is high and I know we have several different tradesmen (and their tools) amongst our neighbours. We have allotments and a park across the road and wetlands at the end of the road, all mostly enclosed. Across the main road is a carbon neutral housing development and the local school and community centre have lots of solar panels, so I hope there is some good knowledge locally as well as equipment. There is a river behind the park which would be bad if the problem was flooding but otherwise useful (although there is a sewage treatment works about 3km away so I assume it would get pretty nasty if that wasn't working). If we weren't near London, I would absolutely want to dig in here and try and build a community here for the long term. But London is London and it scares me.

Just me and I would be gone at the first sign of trouble but I have a 4 and a 2 year old to think about. How long do you think it would be reasonable to expect to be able to stay here safely? I think we would have to move at some point (and no chance of relocating before a disaster, unfortunately) but when would that be? A week? A month after everything went off? How long until the hungry hordes come knocking? We're only 8 miles from the centre of London as the crow flies, but obviously there are lots of very built up areas much closer to us. Could I rely on the fact that most people have never heard of where we are, even people within a couple of miles? I don't think people would think "ahh Hackbridge, they have allotments, let's go there!", but how many people would find us by chance? I want to prep but I keep getting stuck at this. Should I be buying food for 6 months or should I be concentrating on plans to leave?

Thanks for any advice.

[uks]

Rachel
I think you will find near all forum members are staying put (bugging in), and will only be leaving our locations if there is a direct threat to our lives. Before you bug out you will need to have a plan. Route, were you are going, kit to take with you, do you have enough fuel stored to get there and back again. Just bugging without a plan will make you just another refugee. There's a lot to think about ideal if you have to bug out you will need to move before the rest of the populace choking up the roads.

[Kenneth Eames]

Rachal_K, I would definitely start by making a plan. I din't think that in a Survival situation you would be safe. If you sit down and think things through carefully you have your children to consider and probably a partner. Do you both work? If so, you will not be able to go far to recce a safer environment. You would need to use holidays to get further afield to find a place in a very quiet rural area, preferably as far away as possible from people. Maybe, there are Cheap tickets on the railways or buses that could take you to Gloucester or into Wales to look for a much safer retreat. Of course, you have to consider work. I hope that you can work something out for your future. Kenneth Eames.

[Spandex228]

(7 August 2013, 18:38)uks Wrote: Rachel
I think you will find near all forum members are staying put (bugging in), and will only be leaving our locations if there is a direct threat to our lives. Before you bug out you will need to have a plan. Route, were you are going, kit to take with you, do you have enough fuel stored to get there and back again. Just bugging without a plan will make you just another refugee. There's a lot to think about ideal if you have to bug out you will need to move before the rest of the populace choking up the roads.

Hi I think if you look at articles on bugging in and planning aspects inc if you have to bug out in a direct threat it will, help you come up with a plan you are on the right forum for help and advice if you can get neighbours onside this will help but tread carefully when discussing plans with neighbours you need to trust them and OP SEC is important!

[NorthernRaider]

If you decide to " GO" where are you going to go?, Unless you have a plan and a place you can be welcomed in and live self sufficiently you really ought to plan on " Staying" but living withn 8 miles of central London is almost a death wish in my humble opinion, if there was a crisis or societal collapse the rot is going to start in the London boroughs and spread out like a plague

Setting aside the prepping issue I am sure are aware on the ever increasing population density in Londonistan, the rising crime and decaying environment. air and water quality in the GL area is bad and getting worse, schools, shops, hospitals, healthcare, etc are in terminal decline. Social cohesion is breaking down and huge swaiths of the GL area are simply no go areas after dark. Is that the right place to raise two children??. Personally I would rather be much poorer up north or in the west country but safer , more secure with cleaner air, water, lower crime and the chance to feed my kids on healthy locally grown produce. Can you at least consider moving home to a place further away from London.

One of the changing trends in the British prepping, survival and off grid scene is more and more preppers are realising that Bugging Out is becoming an almost impossible to achieve choice, traffic, roads, geograpghy, weather, crime, population, tourists, strikes etc etc have persuaded many preppers that Bugging IN is the only practical and feasable option, especially for families. And for many ( but not all) bugging in has meant finding a more sustainable secure place to live further away from the cities, places where community still exist, places where village schools still thrive, places where you can source clean water and at least grow part of your own food etc, places where you can be safer and more secure that would not object to you fitting a few solar panels, storing water in buttts or converting part of the garden over to food production. So these folks like myself have made that extra sacrifice to get as far out of town as we can ( not an option everyone can choose I admit) so if something does happen they only need to get home from work to their home and put their disaster plans into practice. its more practical and feasable overall to live in tyour bug out location than to try and keep a house in the city and a retreat in the countryside.

The decision has to be yours but I can think of two good reasons you mention already why you should do your best to move further away from London

---

Rachel you asked how long before chaos reigns if something big happens then you mention weeks and months, I would suggest that you look at the recent Toxteth riots in part at least for your answer. When the locals went on the ramage the police withdrew for at least three days leaving anarchy to reign and that was just in a few local boroughs which was eventutally brought under control when the Met supported by cops brought in from the provinces reclaimed the streets. Try and imagine London if say the govt stopped paying out welfare money, or an killer epidemic broke out, or terorism or gang warfare, or drought, or EMP etc and the entire city erupted into chaos topped off by the people being unwilling or unable to stop the chaos. It would go on and on with arson, looting, rioting, gang warfare, murders, rapes, vandalism until their was nothing left to destroy...... then they would start to look towards the suburbs and targets further away. The nearer to the city you are the greater the threat and poorer your environment??

As UKS points out most of us are now bugging in and intend to make our stand where we live, but those of us who can are moving to the most suitable location we can before we put our roots down, most of the preppers I've had the pleasure of interacting with in the south east accept their predicament is bad and intend to move further out ASAP. Even bugging in you still need supplies and kits but instead of Bug Out Bags you develop Get Home Bags instead.

[TheFalcon]

Let me tell you something im pretty close to you,Trust no one,Do not give up to anyone that you are prepping because everyone will find out and as for your location you are probably slightly better off than me but being in the M25 is not good,If TSHTF and im still in londonistan im going to try and be invisible and lay lower than a snakes arsehole to survive.....................It can get you down living in londonistan believe me but try and keep your head up

[Lightspeed]

Hi Rachel,

The short answer is yes, its possible. But challenging.

Have a good dig through this forum and the articles on the main SUK site. here's a wealth of good advice available.

You’ll tend to find that the consensus of opinion among the most experience people on this forum is that your location is not ideal.

After a major collapse, your area is likely to become over run with desperate raiders going house to house in search of water and food. That's your initial threat. Primary drivers of the raiding activity are failure of London's water and food supply chains. In a major collapse, both of which have been argued to be likely to fail completely. Without clean fresh water people stat dying within the week, and without food people start dying within the month. Ask yourself how much drinking water and food is held in reserve in most Londoner's homes? Once the shops have been emptied of water and food, where are those people going to look for more, when will they start doing so and for how long will they keep searching? Their searching will be quite literally a life or death process, do not underestimate its relentless intensity.

Your secondary threat is from disease, due to failure of sewerage systems, and contamination of non mains water sources.

Bugging in might be viable for your family if you could do so in such a way that raiders coming into your house could not detect you and your family or your precious stores were still there. In your location, prepping to stay completely out of sight for 3 to 6 months would be the minimum, I think, as it would take a minimum of this long for the number of potential raders to reduce significantly.. There’s loads of resources on here you should review concerning prepping requirements for water, food, sanitation, heat and light etc.

Consider that buggin in will not be the end of it... after you emerge from your 3 or 6 month hibernation, you can expect all food resources in your area to have been exhausted, and much of your now vibrant community to be dispersed to the winds. What then?

Consider seasonal effects on your bug in plan. For example if you batten down the hatches in May, you'll be emerging again between September and December. You will have to endure the hottest part of the year within your hide out position, and you'll emerge too late to start growing many food crops and with the prospect of having to survive a winter with minimal food replenishment opportunities.

I'm not trying to put you off Rachel, just to highlight the level of complexity of what you are contemplating.

You’ve already taken the most important steps, of identifying the threat and deciding the solution that you want to achieve. There is no right or wrong solution to all of this, just ones that suit you and your family, that overcome as many threats and risks as reasonably possible.

There are others on here who will be able to offer you far greater practical advice.

Good luck.

[Rachel_K]

Thanks for all the great advice.

It sounds like we really can't win! If we stay after a week, perhaps less, it's pretty certain that we'll be killed by raiders. I don't think it would be possible to hide in our house for very long with the kids.

If we leave, we have nowhere to go so we will be in the same position as the raiders but with two kids on our backs. The husband's family is closer to London than us. My family are in Lancashire and Yorkshire, both within similar distance of cities, Preston and Bradford, so although the situation may not be quite as dire for them in terms of raiders I think they will still need to get out and they won't have anything ready. Getting there on foot with two small children while everything is still up in the air would be a death sentence too I think.

Perhaps defeatist of me, but I think at the moment planning for those eventualities is beyond the scope of what I can do so maybe I should concentrate on planning for less serious but more likely situations? Perhaps more local situations where we may be confined to the house for some time (a week?) but the army may be able to remain in control, at least in the outer boroughs. Is that too hopeful? Also for local situations that may render London somewhere we need to leave but where going North would be a good option. So a plan to stay put for 5 days and see if the situation is going to get better or worse. If worse, enough supplies/equipment/a plan to make it to Lancs/Yorks.

Does that sound reasonable to plan for, for now?

Moving away from London is unfortunately not an option right now.

[MCavity]

Hi Rachel,

Bare in mind you won't get things together overnight, so my best advice would be to prioritise your needs. If your starting from scratch I would tell you get a decent water filter asap, (there are plenty of threads on this) as you can only go 3 days without good old H20.
Other than that relax and learn from people with the know & a plan will come as you work out your bespoke needs.

[Lightspeed]

Rachel,

You can only do what is do-able for you.

Being realistic is not being defeatist.

I think in your position I'd try initially to build up a months worth of extra supplies. things with a very long shelf life, and of course a good amount of drinking water.

As time goes on you'll possibly find other options that are not currently apparent.

Good luck