So how far back are we likely to go……………..

[Devonian]

OK, let’s have a discussion about just how far back civilisation would be pushed following a major event and we ended up in a world without rule of law; ie: no government/authorities; no central services; no mains power; no readily available fuel, medicines or other mass produced items that we are used to relying on.

As we all know, John claims we will end up back in a pre-industrial stone age/dark ages, but I would argue that no matter what the event, that that is unlikely to be the situation and I think (Technology Wise) that we are more likely to end up with the technology/skill levels somewhere along the lines of the Edwardian/First World War periods.

My feeling (rightly or wrongly) is that we have far too much knowledge of things and how they work and that there will be too many things around out that can be cannibalised/converted/reused etc etc. There will also be electricians, mechanics and engineers plus others with useful skills and knowledge who will survive and who will be heavily involved in such matters.

So whilst we may not be capable of building a new nuclear power station, or even a simple HB Pencil, I do believe that we will be able to quickly establish small scale/individual power generating equipment, limited numbers of working vehicles, some form of basic farm mechanisation, and much more. Also given time then much more would be achievable……..

But what do you think?????

[bigpaul]

without mains power?? it'll be further back than that, and its ME that said pre industrial, I believe John said "stone age", well to most pre industrial will be like the stone age, I've even heard someone say without mobile phones "its like the middle ages". without power you'll have to do everything and I do mean EVERYTHING by hand. and even if we have the bits to make stuff we may not have the engineers, mechanics and electricians to make it work as without electricity in their lives many will not survive without power, fuel or food deliveries. if you want to look at the lifestyle I think we will be living look online at "return to green valley" I use that as my example and just see how much would have to be done by hand......like everything. even if you could rig up some solar set up it wont last long and where do you get the spare parts from, where do you get the batteries, I have seen set ups where they use submarine batteries, have you got a spare submarine lying around in your back yard??

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we have a friend in Somerset who lives in a straw bale house, and she uses a solar panel, one of those little residential wind turbines AND a basic water wheel and at best this only provides enough power for her very few electric lights, and a very limited supply for her p.c. and thats it, it isn't much.

[Devonian]

(14 December 2014, 15:07)bigpaul Wrote: without mains power?? it'll be further back than that, and its ME that said pre industrial, I believe John said "stone age", well to most pre industrial will be like the stone age, I've even heard someone say without mobile phones "its like the middle ages". without power you'll have to do everything and I do mean EVERYTHING by hand. and even if we have the bits to make stuff we may not have the engineers, mechanics and electricians to make it work as without electricity in their lives many will not survive without power, fuel or food deliveries. if you want to look at the lifestyle I think we will be living look online at "return to green valley" I use that as my example and just see how much would have to be done by hand......like everything. even if you could rig up some solar set up it wont last long and where do you get the spare parts from, where do you get the batteries, I have seen set ups where they use submarine batteries, have you got a spare submarine lying around in your back yard??

---

we have a friend in Somerset who lives in a straw bale house, and she uses a solar panel, one of those little residential wind turbines AND a basic water wheel and at best this only provides enough power for her very few electric lights, and a very limited supply for her p.c. and thats it, it isn't much.

But we didn't even have a national grid or the CEGB until 1935.

You have also mentioned previously that your parents (or was it your wife) weren't connect to mains until the 1960's

So why after an event would we be worse off than we were before?

But also there is so much more infrastructure in place today that can be cannibalised. Do you really think that all of the big commercial wind turbines spread across the south west will be left idle and that we won't develop ways of tapping into their power?

Also we are simply not going to need anywhere near as much power as we currently; people are not going to be using TV's/PC's/Xbox's/Street Lighting/Factory machinery/office blocks/heated swimming pools etc etc...

[bigpaul]

it was Wife's family who were off grid, that was because they weren't in the village and the mains only went to the village. you wrote "why after an event would we be worse off" its the event which would make us worse off, especially if that involved the power grid going down, which it probably will, now I know plenty of people lived without power before, but how many of those people are still alive? not many and those that are will be of my generation-yes I know there will be some exceptions, but in general most of the population wont even to be able to imagine a life without electricity, and that's where it will end for most of them.

[Mortblanc]

http://englishrussia.com/2009/03/17/russ...er-plants/

England losing grid power will have no impact on those souls living anywhere else.

In 2003 the US had a grid outage that impacted a larger area than GB in size and I was 30 miles from the edge of the dark zone and except for the news reports knew nothing was out of sorts.

Many areas still produce power locally and have no concept of being part of a "grid" as you know it.

It is going to be a real shock for all the folks that think the whole world has returned to the technology of the dark ages to find that many of the towns in Russia still have portable nuke reactors in full operation, many communities have hydro stations operating, and some of the steam plants in other areas have reverted to using locally mined coal.

If you do not get your systems patched together, up and running within a short time you will probably become known as a colony of those areas.

[bigpaul]

that link is nearly 6 years out of date, like most of your opinions MB.

[Devonian]

When I was saying why would we be worse off, I mean worse off than those at the beginning of the 20th Century, rather than being worse off then now.

Yes I agree that virtually the entire population will not have experienced life without mains electricity and could not imaging life without it. But if $hit happens, then that is the situation we will be in. People will either 'adapt' or 'die'.

And history shows that largely people adapt.

I can't find it now, but one example was during the war in Serbia/Croatia where the city was totally cut off and there were no supplies going in or out, there were no mains power or gas supplies and the city was under attack.

But the people generated their own power using Heath Robinson techniques to build water turbine generators, which where tethered to a bridge and then lowered into the river below.

[Lightspeed]

Simple answer Dev, is that I do not know how far back civilization could slide.

Does anyone?

Yes we have accumulated knowledge that will be usable to get things restarted.

Computer based data banks are vulnerable both to software virus attack and are of course totally dependent on electrical power.

John and BP's take on things are a bit too extreme for me, but I respect their views and learn from them. Maybe I'm in denial, but I hope things will not slide that far. But these guys might be right. I appreciate them sharing their knowledge and thoughts.

So back to your question, I believe that its very possible that the lights could go out, but I do not know for how long. My expectation is that an electrical grid system of some type will get revived. If it doesn't its still the same mantra here: " adapt and survive"

[bigpaul]

(14 December 2014, 16:11)Devonian Wrote: When I was saying why would we be worse off, I mean worse off than those at the beginning of the 20th Century, rather than being worse off then now.

Yes I agree that virtually the entire population will not have experienced life without mains electricity and could not imaging life without it. But if $hit happens, then that is the situation we will be in. People will either 'adapt' or 'die'.

And history shows that largely people adapt.

I can't find it now, but one example was during the war in Serbia/Croatia where the city was totally cut off and there were no supplies going in or out, there were no mains power or gas supplies and the city was under attack.

But the people generated their own power using Heath Robinson techniques to build water turbine generators, which where tethered to a bridge and then lowered into the river below.

I think if you read Shtfschool you will find Selco's recollection of events slightly different to your own. I think after an event, given the attitude of most people these days, it will be more "die" than "adapt". without resupplies of food and fuel many will expire.

[Devonian]

(14 December 2014, 16:14)Lightspeed Wrote: John and BP's take on things are a bit too extreme for me, but I respect their views and learn from them. Maybe I'm in denial, but I hope things will not slide that far. But these guys might be right. I appreciate them sharing their knowledge and thoughts.

Absolutely and I totally agree.

Also having skills of old and more importantly being able to use them is an invaluable skill for us all to have.