Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

[Devonian]

(13 January 2016, 21:02)Lightspeed Wrote:

(13 January 2016, 15:36)Devonian Wrote: I think it is important to note that the price of oil hasn't crashed, yes it's at a 12 year low and 65% lower in price than it was, but it still hasn't crashed.

The price of oil has been reduced and lowered in a controlled manner by the Saudi's who are trying to kill off competition from the low cost shale oil production in the US.

In many ways the low cost of oil is exactly what the UK and many other economies actually need to help strengthen growth in our industrial and transport sectors, so the low cost of oil is likely to help us.

You think?

It couldn't possibly be US manipulation of their allies to put huge pressure on the Russian economy which is largely based on oil these days?

See what you think:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/20...r-on-shale

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015...n-year-low

http://uk.businessinsider.com/afp-us-sha...?r=US&IR=T

Plenty of other main stream and alternative sources all stating the same....

[Lightspeed]

Hi Dev,

My earlier reply was a little terse... please excuse.

Yes I've read the background, but also noticed that the US started making lots of noise about their greater petroleum independence based on shale, exactly at the same time as they needed to trim the wings of the Russian economy.

Even is Saudi is not knowingly playing the game, the end result is that the US is getting its way.

Personally, low oil price is something I can live with.

[River Song]

I think we have drifted off the OP a little on to oil.

I once learnt that if you have a choice between a conspiracy theory and a cock-up theory, always go for the latter. There's an awful lot of conspiracy here.

IMHO, America's shale oil project was nothing to do with keeping Russia at bay or anything like that. It was a long term aim of the US to be oil independent after being held to ransom by the Arab's years ago.

Still back to the OP. My thoughts on posting were nothing to do with oil, but more generfal and that the RBS says shit and run.

The reasons I might give are:

China - falling apart. Particularly look at 'shadow banking'

Baltic Dry. - Shipping. Before the last great economic crisis, Robert Peston predicted it was coming because it had observed that the Baltic Dry index had collapsed, i.e. the costs of shipping at fallen through the floor. Compare the Baltic Dry today --- there is very little shipping taking place in the world, and this is particuarly noticeable on the North Atlantic.

It will only take a bit more bad news before I seriously will take my money and 'stuff it in the matress'.

[bigpaul]

"there is very little shipping taking place in the world", what the hell are you talking about? what about all the cargo ships and all those container ships? most of the stuff we import comes in containers.

[Devonian]

(14 January 2016, 07:26)Lightspeed Wrote: Hi Dev,

My earlier reply was a little terse... please excuse.

Yes I've read the background, but also noticed that the US started making lots of noise about their greater petroleum independence based on shale, exactly at the same time as they needed to trim the wings of the Russian economy.

Even is Saudi is not knowingly playing the game, the end result is that the US is getting its way.

Personally, low oil price is something I can live with.

Hi LS

No, not terse at all and yes I'm sure the Russian aspects are also being played out here as well in response to their actions in the Ukraine/Crimea.

Greaterr energy security/self reliance is definitely something the US is striving for, as is the UK and many other countries.

The problem that the Saudi's have is that they are 100% reliant on oil, they have no other industry at all, so the US, UK, Russians being self reliant on terms of energy supply does not sit well with them.

But going back to RS's post, I hope it is not the case, and from a personal business perspective I can say that the first 6 months of 2015 were far stronger than the final 6 months, but also that these first 2 weeks of January 2016 (very short time I know) have actually been "very" busy, record levels for us, which I hope is a positive sign moving forward. ..... I also note that some of the supermarkets are also posting unexpectedly strong Christmas sales results, so I guess it's a case of who really knows what is going on in the markets....

Maybe if the banks are saying sell, it could actually be the ideal time to buy.....??

[NorthernRaider]

Yes the Yanks are simply trying to get away from being held hostage by Camel Jockeys and Socialists in Venezuala, cannot say i blaim them but if they can put the boot into the Russians at the same time. I see the saudis are trying to flock off sssets across the world to raise cash such as office blocks and malls, and back in saudi many state projects have been shelved, much of the cotainer fleet is now being store up near Singapore and large numbers of container ships being laid up from milford haven, the west indies, singapore and indonesia. Brent crude dropped under $30 this morning again for a while.

[CharlesHarris]

Here in West Virginia the economy has been completely destroyed by Obama's anti-coal and anti fracking energy policies.
The economic recovery they brag about hasn't happened here. I am lucky that in the eastern panhandle along the I81 corridor there has been great dispersal of Federal activities away from DC post 9/11 and this has stimulated local economic growth, but what was traditional coal country is in Depression, and while oil and natural gas have helped take up some of the slack, excessive regulation at both federal and state level has thwarted the economic recovery.

I have been investing my money mostly in food and fuel storage, tools, clothing and durable goods. I get by OK, but am frugal.
I am lucky to have a modest government worker's pension and social security and a bit of money in the bank as a cushion. If the whole shebang collapses it will be difficult, but I'll get buy. Most of the blokes who have been out of work and are dependent on sucking the government teat will be in big trouble when the well runs dry.

[Straight Shooter]

The Baltic dry index down to all time low 403 .....oil movements shipping is NOT included in this index ....as for the ships ...most are anchored up ! ....does not look at all good folks....check out commodities and movements.

[Straight Shooter]

Baltic Dry Index DOWN TO 383 HELLO ! anyone home !

[NorthernRaider]

Yes, everyone is at home, prepping like f......................................