Ukraine

[CharlesHarris]

IMHO the Biden administration likely released intel that may compromise sources and methods which will be needed for a more serious situation in the near future. I missed my guess on how the Ukraine war would start, thinking Kiev would provoke the conflict. It turned out that Putin did a replay of the Soviet intervention in A-stan with a Saddam 19th Province twist. Hmmm. I didn’t see that coming. Am told by friends at Ft. Leavenworth that folks are having their leaves and passes cancelled, being recalled to duty stations. This could take on a life of its own fairly quickly.

State probably got caught by some maskirova deliberately planted in diplomatic circles. State Department types are generally no respecters of document classification and commonly release information when it serves their purpose to do so, whether they have authority to do so or not.

Publicly stating a date certain of invasion is amateurish folly. Indicators and warnings of ground offensive are fairly specific in many domains. Correlation across disciplines is required to be accurate. My take is that somebody DoS made the whole thing up because their spokesman didn’t elaborate on substantiation, nor did he defer to specific sources. It wouldn’t be the first time a diplomat mixed fact with opinion to produce an outlandish statement for the media.