Chances

[Skvez]

Congratulations you are further away than the average rural town.
Most people, even unfit people can limp 30 to 40 miles in a few days
And so what if the locals have shotguns and suspicion? Neither will stop the influx of refugees.
Most people are not going to shoot someone for walking up their street, at least not until a total loss of law.

Many people will die in the towns, many more will die in the process of fleeing but if even 5% of the towns make it out to the surrounding countryside it's going to get uncomfortable out there unless you're well off the beaten track.