Chances

[Skvez]

BigPaul,
Initially most people will sit tight but once rioting and looting break out very badly and once the food and water runs out many people will try and go somewhere else. They will believe any rumour of somewhere having food and water. Maybe they are walking towards another town or city but they will end up in the country doing so.
Some people will sit tight and die but many won't and (as I suggested before) if even 5% of the town/city population head to the hills that a lot for the country to absorb.