Chances

[bigpaul]

i think 5% of the POPULATION is an overestimate, it will be 5%(or less) of the SURVIVORS, if it is a result of a pandemic, say like the black death/plague then survival rates(as i have already discussed on my own site) may be as low as 40% then any one leaving the cities would be a % of that 40%, which you must admit lowers the numbers a lot. i still wonder if anyone did leave how far they would get, literally carrying everything they own including the proverbial "kitchen sink", just water alone they need to carry a minimum of 2 litres per day PER PERSON and as we know water weighs heavy, if they are walking for, say, 5 days and there are 4 persons in the party thats a lot of water to carry, water weighs 1LB to 1 pint so i'm sure you can do the sums.(thats just DRINKING water, not for cooking or washing-thats on top of).