Scenario THE FALL

[JohnR]

Sir,
I read your Scenario postings, particularly The Fall and The City.
Both of these I wholeheartedly agree with though I think that once any collapse of society as we now know get going it may happen quicker. I am little surprised that you mention real people in your scenarios. I have not seen or heard from Neil for many years, not since Fishponds which I am sure you will remember, many years ago.
We were fortunate that back in 2003 to came into some money and so were able to buy a property in the South West and moved out of London. Fortunate in that we are now able to live at our retreat.
I wondered if you have any thoughts on the longer term aspect of how things may pan out after collapse.
It is my view that after the sort of events that are discussed on the internet we will not have the number of people that we have now, nor the infrastructure and certainly no electric power. OK there may be a little from solar panels, wind and hydro for a while but as with all things the question is going to be replacement parts and ultimately manufacture and of course the skill and facilities to make the parts. The problems with civilisation today are that of the complexity of it’s systems.
I also believe that once a collapse starts it will continue until such time we reach an equilibrium from which we can rebuild. The problem with this is that we will never be able to rebuild to what we have now. I have doubts that we may not even be able to rebuild to a level of the 17th or 18th century. We will not be able access the raw materials as we do now, we will not have the power and machinery will wear out or breakdown. We may be able to do some things for short while but longer term I have my doubts. We have used all the easily accessible materials and now need power to get them, what is left, from the ground. We will not have the people or expertise to do this. Consider that the downward trend over maybe many centuries. It will mean that all our time would be taken in trying to survive and I fear that after a generation or two we would not have the time to teach the children other than the basic survival skills.
One must remember that people like teachers would as such be unproductive and although they would be an investment it is unlikely that we would be able to afford to invest in them in the longer term.
The one thing that I feel will happen over the first two or three generations after the collapse will be the loss of the ability of people to read, write of do arithmetic.
“The years following the collapse were generally years of plenty. Everything imaginable was available in abundance; it was there for the taking, at least for a while. There were generators and they had enough fuel for them for years, or at least that’s what they thought. As the fuel disintegrated the lights and power, what there was, went out. The survivors could light candles to ward of the night and they knew how to build fires, but that wasn’t the same as flicking a light switch.
Electricity was the life blood of civilisation, when the fuel went bad they lost more than their cars, they lost light, their refrigerators, ovens, freezers and probably the most depressing of all their ham radios.

50 years later only a few of the original survivors remained, people who remembered how things had once been done. Fifty years hence and there would be none at all. The survivors passed on to their children everything they could, they taught them to read and write. As the years rolled on the children saw the pictures and read the words but they had never seen any of these things and found them unbelievable. They had never flipped a switch to light up a room, seen water come out of a tap. And aeroplanes flying?
The following generation will be the last hope of a time gone by. If fuel was the lifeblood of civilisation, then education was its heart and soul. The children of the new world had learned how to read and write but when it came to teach the next generation education will come to an end. The books in the libraries prattled on about things that had no bearing their world; they had never seen an aeroplane so why should they lean out them. Beside they had more important things to do like growing food, luckily there were books that showed how to do it. The black markings on the page were useless, but the pictures were helpful.”
And so within two or three generations it will all be lost.
Yes in previous ‘Dark Ages’ we had the monasteries that kept some knowledge but I fear this will not happen this time round, if there is next time around.
Just interested in your thoughts on this considering the well thought out scenarios you posted.
BTW.
I see you mention some places where it is agreed as new hubs for preppers to gather. You may like to add the Wellington Monument near Wellington, Somerset. This was set up many years ago being a high point in the area and would be monitored as a pick up point for those coming intomthe area. Being at a good height a light can be seen from many miles away. All we suggested was that fire be lit so that it could be seen from the west.
Amyway trust all well with you in the north and hope to her from you.
Trust all well with you.
John.
PS I have included my email if you wish to respond direct.
survivalnut@gmx.com