A Hard Winter

[Tarrel]

First time I've written one of these, so here goes...

October; A blocked lubrication channel causes a bearing to overheat in the tail rotor assembly of a transport helicopter as it is approaching one of the North Sea's largest natural gas production platforms with a delivery. The tail rotor seizes, causing the helicopter to lose control and execute a crash-landing on the platform. As it does so, vital gas lines are severed, causing a catastrophic leak and immediate explosion. 20 people are killed instantly. The injured and remaining staff are evacuated. Damage is so severe that the platform is taken out of action for the forseeable future. The UK immediately loses 10% of its gas production capacity.

November; Continued tensions between the Russian and Ukraine governments lead to Russian state-owned Gazprom using the trans-Ukraine gas pipeline as a political weapon, intermittently restricting the Ukraine's gas supply. The uncertainty leads to an immediate 20% increase in the wholesale price of natural gas. Norway, having been suffering from the recent demand-destruction-led falls in oil prices, sees an opportunity. It switches supplies of gas away from the Norway-UK pipeline to the increasingly desperate Ukraine, reneging on its commercial contract with the UK and resulting in a 20% reduction in supplies to British shores.

December; An early cold snap causes a surprise jump in natural gas demand at home, mostly among domestic consumers. The recent fall-off in supply availability means that the UK's gas reserves are drawn upon unusually early. However, people enjoy a great Christmas, putting all the World's troubles behind them, and fire up those stoves for cooking the traditional Christmas turkey.

January; As has become common in recent years, the position of the jet-stream creates a prolonged high pressure blocking weather pattern over the UK, leading to biting North-Easterly winds and heavy snow. Temperatures plunge, reaching overnight lows of -15 commonly in southern England, and as low as -25 in the Scottish Highlands. Gas demand soars, leading to unpredictable pressure-drops. Reserves reach critically low levels. Gas distribution companies begin interrupting supplies due to the unsafe low pressures. People start to suffer. The sick and elderly start to die. The Government is under pressure to act.

An emergency debate in parliament grants the Government power to enact rolling gas-supply cuts to both residential and industrial customers. There is a knock-on effect on electricity supplies and rolling black-outs are also introduced. Companies start to introduce informal three-day weeks and begin laying off zero-hour-contract workers and agency staff.

February; The icy temperatures continue. Hundreds of thousands of workers are laid off, unable to pay their bills. Energy costs rocket. The bad weather isn't helping. Protesters take to the streets, blaming the Government for its short-sightedness in energy security. Many of these demonstrations turn nasty. An incident of heavy-handed policing during one of the demos is the spark that creates a new round of rioting. The word soon spreads through social media and, before long, civil unrest is spreading through many of Britain's towns and cities. Continuing demonstrations, and striking worker picket lines become ready flash-points for riots to develop. Unlike the summer of 2011, the bad weather is hampering the police's attempts to maintain order. The disorder escalates to the point where whole town-centres become no-go areas night after night. The disorder on the streets, and the continued severe weather, start to affect transport and deliveries.

Early March; Supermarkets start to run short of basic foodstuffs....

Questions:

How would you react?
When would you react?
Would you be prepared for:
- Keeping warm?
- Keeping safe?
- Keeping fed?