What is a SHTF situation?

[Scythe13]

Hi everyone

Time for a lengthy half rant half educational bulletin....full of bad spelling.

First up, we always speak about WTSHTF....meaning, When The S**t Hits The Fan (WTSHTF....see how that works? Magical hu?).

Really, what the crap does that mean?!?!?!?


Let's play a game of scenarios.

Scenario 1.
You have a wife/husband/once-of-each and kids.
You work 9-5, and earn enough to pay the bills, but not enough to save for a rainy day.
You're try to prep for a catastrophic event, like a global pandemic or an EMP.
The next day you go to work and your boss hands you a P45. Company was making cuts, and your name was picked from a hat. (if you don't have a job and this scenario can't possibly apply to you, then shut up and realise it's a hypothetical scenario.....anyway, shouldn't you be checking Jobsite or Reed, instead of reading this post?)
You have enough money to pay the bills for the end of the month, but not enough to pay the bills after that.

Scenario 2.
You're shopping in your favourite, or least favourite, supermarket, and the front of the shop explodes.
You don't know whether it's a bomb, a car crash, or what.
There are injured people everywhere. Screaming hoards of people is the only thing you can hear above the loud buzzing sound in your ears.
You instinctively hit the deck.
When you get up, ears still ringing, you see smoke and people lay on the floor bleeding.

Scenario 3.
BOOSH!!! Big flash in the sky.
Your mobile phone shuts down.....but your battery was full?!?
Cars grind to a halt.
Traffic lights stop working.
Some idiot walks into closed electric doors.
Must be an EMP!

Scenario 4.
Alarm goes off at 6am, same as it does everyday (if your alarm doesn't go off, or you don't use an alarm clock, then this is still a hypothetical mental exercise, and you're still a bellend. It's a theoretical scenario...stop trying to be a knob. Or stop succeeding in being one.)
You get out of bed. Open your curtains. It's dark....but that's normal, it's winter. By the time it's midday, it's still dark!
WTF?!?!?!?

Scenario 5.
CRASH!!!!
You're in the middle of a car accident.
Damn that sucks!
You're fine, but there are 3 other cars in the accident.
There could well be injured people in those cars.



Which of these is a SHTF situation?

Correct. ALL OF THEM!!! Well done my clever bunnies (I love that expression).

The thing is, all of those situations are a SHTF situation.

If something happens that means you need to call an insurance company, then that can often be considered a SHTF situation too.

Any important EMERGENCY situation taking you out of your natural rhythm of life is considered a SHTF situation.

If your taxi doesn't turn up, is that a SHTF situation? NO, because it's not an emergency. What if that taxi was for a job interview? Even if you were in a Scenario 1 situation, in NEED of the job, then it wouldn't be taking you outside of your normal rhythm of life, because you'd still be job hunting. Change it round a bit, for example, you have a job. You want to go for a new job. Your taxi doesn't turn up and you miss your interview. The next day you return back to your normal job and get on with life. Yes it's a crap day, but no doody hit any wind creation devices! If you're unemployed and miss a taxi for a job, you return to being unemployed. See how that works?

THSTF when a situation changes your living situation for a worse scenario, that is dangerous, to some extent.

Take the example of the middle-east, with Israel and Palestine (I don't care who you're cheering for, so don't bother commenting as if I care) or the Syria conflict. If they kick off more than they're already at, will it be a SHTF situation? NO!!! (If you argue against this, then you clearly have no understanding of reading a whole post before opening your stupid mouth!!! Wow, that was an aggressive preemptive strike haha. It's not meant at anyone, and I'm watching the situation too, so don't be hating on me) The situation has escalated, YES, but until it becomes something that effects the way your rhythm of daily life is flowing, it's not a SHTF situation.

Were the London riots considered a SHTF situation? If you're in London, then I'd say so. Over in Scotland, nobody gave a toss. Go to Reading or Cornwall, and even there, nobody gave a screw about it. It was little more than interesting news. For some people in London, it's was also little more than "Interesting News".

See where I'm going with this?

Okay, here's a fun one for you all to laugh at my expense.

The other day I'd finished a 12hour shift, then while driving home, my car decided to stop working....at 00:05am, with a 2 degree outside temp. I ended up walking over 5 miles, in the dark, with a bit of rain, for about 3 hours, where just below an hour was pushing the car back and forth, alone, trying to jump start the car, by myself....in smart shoes. Clearly this was not one of my finer moments of life. Changed my clothes and walked home, leaving my car by the side of the road, to be rescued later in the day (which it was. All sorted and working now).

Was that a SHTF scenario for me?

HELL NO!!!
Was it an emergency? Yes, in a way.
Did it change my life rhythm? A bit.
Was it important? Not really; because instead of driving home, I just walked.
Was I in danger? No. I had ample clothing, fitness, and lighting to get home; as well as my phone to call the wife should something important enough to wake her up occurred.
Even though it was a crap situation, and it sucked to be me at that time, the S**t didn't hit the fan. I was just having a crap day.

In a SHTF scenario, just because something bad has happened, it doesn't mean the whole world stops functioning.

Let's pretend we go into a financial depression. Just because we're in a depression, the world doesn't stop. Wars don't randomly break out. The earth doesn't stop turning. People don't all do nuts and start looting and killing each other.

Yes stuff happens, but 2007-2008 was a financial collapse, and the vast majority of people just got on with life. A depression would have the same effect. People would still have jobs (obviously not everyone) and lifestyles would have to tighten up a little. But the world doesn't flip and go mad every time there's a SHTF situation.

A SHTF scenario or situation, can be localised, and not all (I'd go as far to say, the vast majority) of situations will be VERY short term (9/11, Katrina, London riots, London Bombs, Superstorm Sandy, tsunami's, etc) as in less than 2 weeks. But many long term situations will also not be huge world flipper situations.

The boring scenarios are the most common ones. So we should prep for them most. The ones that are fun to prep for, are also the ones that are less likely to occur.