Playing the numbers

[Scythe13]

(11 December 2012, 14:49)Skean Dhude Wrote: Be carefulwith stats.

1 in 9000 doesn't sound likemuch but the odds of winning the lottery are 14 Million to one and people win it almost every week.

The dinosaurs ruled for 160 million years before an asteroid hit, 10 thousand in a life span of billions of years doesn't even merit a mention. If we were wiped out now future historians would likely say dinosaurs 160M years, apes and other life forms 15 K. If you drew the timscale of the planet on your walls, all the way around you would see a thick line for the dinosaurs and we couldn't draw a line thin enough for our reign.

Odds are strange things; (Warning made up figures)
I have 1 in 900 chanceofdying of cancer
1 in 2500 of being in a plane crash
1 in 20000 of being in a terrorist attack
1 in 15000 of dying in police custody
etc.
etc.
According to my calcs there is a good chance I'm not going to die ever.

Odds are simply stats to be used for gambling. We each have differing circumstances. For example if I work in the army in that shit hole Afghanistan what are the odds I will get killed by a terrorist or a citizen of Afghanistan. What are my odds at home working for Asda as a shelf stacker. Strangly the odds are the sameuntil I say what are the odds 'for asoldier' or 'a shelfstacker'

Just be careful with odds. It is for gambling only any we are not gambling with anything.

I understand what you're saying, and I don't disagree.

The idea of the post is to show that even though we expect it to happen, don't plan your life around an event happening, because it's unlikely to happen in our lifetime. Not that it won't happen, but it's unlikely to happen. Is it worth prepping for a 1% chance? Of course it is. Is it worth planning your life around a 1% chance? NO.