assume or not to assume?

[Prepper1]

Theres an old saying "chance favors the prepared mind" Louis Pasteur.



I know we all have differing views on what will happen post collapse up to the point of fisticuffs.......

BUT the one thing that makes us preppers is that we are prepared.

Post collapse is unknown to us yet but we can and have to make assumptions about it otherwise we wouldn't have plans and

wouldn't know what to do.

The one thing we should all remain is open minded to ALL possibilities.

We must not shut our minds to even the most outlandish theory, we must look at it, assimilate it and put it somewhere on our list.

It must however be on our list no matter what it is, even if its at the bottom of "least likely to ever happen"

Because that way if it on the list we consider it and it remains in our mind instead of being dismissed out of hand.

Preppers are noted for being prepared.

Dismissing things is not only not preparing to fail, it's downright fool hardy.

Even if your fairly well isolated and protected, make plans for felling trees over roads and or some sort of barricades to stop traffic make sure you can move them in case you need to drive out.

For example chavs and their ilk and indeed the great unprepared in general may well stay put waiting for the government to step up and do the knight in shining Armour bit.

But for how long? you must have seen those druggies so skinny that skeletons look obese compared to them, they can walk miles and miles...

and they're constantly hungry because they dont eat much... well heroin excluded...

Would they walk anywhere and how far assuming there no transportation and or the road arteries are blocked.

If you say that people fan out from a city or town in a circle like a shock wave which they wouldn't they'd likely head for the closest habitation by road but for this example assume they do.

Whats the distance you'd expect very hungry people to walk before they gave up and let fate do its business.

one, two, ten miles?

Fit as a fiddle you could probably do 25 miles a day, IF you were fit watered and well fed.

But that defeats the point of the question, because if you were fit and well fed you wouldn't be going anywhere would you?

So unfit chavs, sheeple for want of a better word wondering about looking for food at whatever point, I'd say maximum two to three weeks, if that long, as they have or can scavenge two to three weeks food up to go with the stella maybe a month tops from local corner shops etc...

Now we can probably say food distribution centers, such as wincanton, costco etc would be hit within the first month, after all that's not too far for them to walk as there usually nearby to urban areas and they have some sort of trolleys for getting the food home.

So on your local map and using the internet mark off all these places, are they near you if so you better watch out, because after a while when these places are empty and the "cheeple" (cross between chavs and sheeple) are hungry the nearest houses will be targeted.

Then the houses on the way back to where they live, dont forget to mark off local council estates, also not forgetting what type of council estate.

Some are danger zones post shtf such as ones occupied by younger people others such as retirement housing obviously not so dangerous maybe...

I'm sure a lot of us have maps with points of interest marked such as lumber yards etc...

Make sure you mark of points to avoid as well, like on the maps of millitary firing ranges put a circle around them and out of ten give them a threat rating and mark that on as well so you dont forget.

We have to assume that after say two months max after these local supply warehouses such as previously said costco etc are "liberated" that the hunt for food further afield may start.

So so far we can say that after about three months, some people will have died off, some wont.

How many?

Well look for example at the ratio of o.a.p's in your area, see if you can find any information regarding old and disabled people i.e. numbers.

we can assume these will mostly be dead, not all but most as some will have family, younger family looking out for them.

Now, cheeple wise I think you can assume at the three month mark there will be little die off, because of all the food available this is of course assuming again, they'll probably off a few of each other fighting over food but not many..

Again look around where you live, research this by going for walks, driving around looking for the "bad" neighborhoods and noting names of estates and marking them on your map dont put yourself in danger doing this by the way, that's just silly, you may already know a few by reputation.

Looking at council websites and such you can also find out population density's of areas, the size of relevant age groups or as I say threat groups.

We could assume threat levels for age groups as well such as 12 years old to 60 years old major threat level younger and older than this maybe not so, although kids and oldies can carry guns and shoot so....

The trouble is you cant write off old people as a poor threat completely because an old guy or lady hiding around a corner with surprise spade attack can end you as quick as a flash.

So can the disabled guy in the wheelchair your thinking of walking past because he's an ex marine with a machete hidden under his blanket...

So even though this articles full of assumptions you can see just how dangerous assumptions can be.

Assumptions therefore must be prioritized as well.

For example if you assume people will sit in place and die, what if they dont?

Would that have any affect on you and your plans?

If it were reversed and you were assuming for hoards of people coming your way and they didn't would that affect you?

If you walked past that disabled guy and he did nothing but beg would that affect you?

If he stabbed you in the thigh would it affect your plans?

The moral of this story is that some assumptions have little or no effect on us and our plans, some do.

As a prepper and wiser than the average cheeple, assuming assuming can get you killed but we never the less have to do it.

So think about all outcomes from your assumptions, even if you dont think it could happen, give it some thought about what if it did.