rural population

[Skean Dhude]

It is just opinion but I believe;
Many will stay awaiting TPTB to help them
Many will stay because they cannot move far or have large families.
Those that are younger with families won't go far because they need to return with food
Some will make the journey.
Those that remain will become too weak to make the trek when what is holding them there is removed, (dies)

15 miles isn't much but when you are uncertain what is there you go nearer or to higher population areas expecting more there.

In the meantime you will hide your preps, be out of the house and watching from afar when you get warning that refugees are on their way.