Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[Lightspeed]

I’ve been away a few days, in which time this thread has been rather active.

It’s gone a good deal off track from the scenario I was assessing. Which was consideration of how a specific slice of society ( campers, caravanners and their families = C&Cs) would potentially react to a long term grid down situation, what are their numbers, and where might they choose to flee.

NR, plainly you have analysed this in great depth, and although your thoughts are based on golden horde type threat, they are very relevant to this discussion. Thank you. Interesting that they largely overlap my less thoroughly thought through ideas.

BP you state that these people will all die on the road. This is of course a an over-exaggeration. Some will not make it, that’s for sure. Overall the C&C group will survive far better while travelling than the general population as they have both the equipment and knowledge and self-reliance skills necessary to do so.

Devonian: Sorry about the links not working on OP. I just cut and pasted them in and they got truncated. For the main Pdf report google << Visit Britain FORESIGHT Issue 59 September 2008>> and that should take you to it.

As SS stated, we will all face unexpected visitors. We need to assess how many, where from, how capable, how equipped, what they will be looking for, and most importantly how we are going to deal with them.

Coming back on track:

C&Cs, and their immediate families, represent a sizeable population.

C&Cs are considerably more capable of bugging-out than the population at large

Most C&Cs ( but not all of them) are more self reliant than the population at large

C&Cs are already equipped to be able to survive longer in the outdoor environment than the population at large. This is not just in the form of shelters, but knowledge, skills, ancillary equipment and clothing.

C&Cs have skills and knowledge of
how to use their equipment in an outdoor environment

The group sub-divides into active and lapsed C&Cs. The active C&Cs, in addition to the basic equipment, will possibly have modern sleeping bags, lighting, portable radios, supplies of foods, cooking equipment, camping gas, drinking water containers, sterilising tablets, etc. They will also be running cars that are suitable for load carrying and trailer pulling, which will necessarily be tough. The lapsed C&Cs will probably still have basic shelter type equipment, but ancillaries will be dispersed/ lost and camping specific food stores probably run down. But they will still have knowledge of actual living in the outdoors.

It may be that at the start of a prolonged grid down situation, the C&Cs will use their equipment and knowledge to help their families Bug-In activities.

But being on the whole self-reliant, C&Cs will be more aware of the unfolding dangers. Those who are city based will more quickly identify the need to Bug Out than their non-C&C neighbours.
After decision to bug out, some C&Cs will have left it too late, or will have been caught with insufficient vehicle fuel stocks/ alternative transport to make BO feasible.

Some C&Cs will head off in the direction of safe houses of family and friends.

Some C&Cs will find no friend or family in suitable areas, and their thought of where to BO will turn towards what they see as wild areas that are already known to them.

The statistics I have found, and my own historic thinking, lead me to believe that a significant number of C&Cs will be heading towards Devon and Cornwall as these counties will have greatest draw-factor, being significantly the most popular camping areas in the country.