Urban Calculation

[Scythe13]

Hi Everyone

I've been doing some heavy thinking about the Urban Survival Situation.

This is the data and the foundation on which I base my ideas.

The average house holds 3 days worth of food.
The average supermarket hold 3 days worth of food.
Homes near a supermarket (within walking distance) hold 2 days of food.
The average supermarket is stripped within 5-7 hours of a disaster being called.
The average petrol station is stripped within 6-8 hours of a disaster/fuel strike being broadcast (information from a friend that's an Esso garage manager).
The average car has less that 1/2 a tank of fuel.
1 in 4 houses has a 'half decent' medical kit.

The above data has been boringly sorted through and I've been running different scenarios with it.

In an urban situation, it would seem that all food would be out within 5 days. However, people would not be rationing their food or fuel. Moreover, not everyone would be able to get to the shops in time to help strip them of their food, toilet paper and all that.

The people living near a supermarket would be out of food within 2 days, max.

Think about this next statement: People will be rioting within a day or 2, but people will be 'food rioting' for sure in 2 days!

The distinction is huge. A normal riot (if such a thing exists) will be emotion driven. It will be aggressive, but people will enjoy rioting. Like in London and all that, the people will be doing it just for the fun of it. On the other hand, a 'food riot' will be a riot for survival, and people will die or kill in that. They are not being driven by emotion. They will be driven by the will to survive! They will be rioting/looting to stay alive. To keep their children alive, parents alive, friends alive, and things like that.

The food riots will probably start when the fuel runs out and trucks can't supply the stocks for supermarkets, which I'll explain later. But you should expect that within 10 days.

The next thing to happen will be people getting injured and the alike. As the medical kit stat shows, people will be injured and first aid will be few and far between. That will be when the NHS gets called, and everyone will be overwhelmed, so the NHS will shut down what centres they have open. The emergency room area will be shut down because it will be over crowded. Expect that within the first 2 days of 'food riots'.

The fuel will be used up pretty quick, but worse than that, the ambulances, emergency vehicles, and the supermarket trucks will be running to a stand still by the end of day 10. Some depots have their own store, so could maintain their supply of fuel for another 3-4 days. But that means that within 2 weeks, food will definitely be rare in supermarkets. Before the food supply totally stops, people will be looting any truck with a cargo that could be food!!! The trucks will be getting stopped and looted before they manage to get the food onto the supermarket shelves.

It will be like a wild west program, with people jumping on the wagons and looting what they can.

But as numbers suggest, the city should be relatively safe for just under 2 weeks before the REAL rioting happens.

This gives us urban preppers 1 week before we can safely hop the city, into the woods.

Cars will be available until about day 10, but if you keep a whole tank of fuel, you'll be sitting pretty. At the first sniff of rioting, I'm going to be digging in for 5 days, then hopping into the car and vanishing for another 2 weeks or so. Within which time is should be pretty safe to re-entre the cities. But if you leave it a month, you should be running home clear. Most people would have died off through killing each other, and through disease and things like that. But in fairness, would you really want to re-entre a city that smelt worse, had more disease, and less food?