Devon and Cornwall will be inundated with refugees? Ifs, maybes, and conjecture

[CharlesHarris]

Not sure how the format will transfer, but this US emergency management conference has useful points for planning:

West Virginia Urban-Rural Evacuation State Planners Workshop
Federal Emergency Management Agency September 19 - 22, 2006
Potential for an Uncontrolled Mass Evacuation of the DC Metro Area as a Result of a Terrorist Attack:

A Report of Survey Findings
Identify breadth and scope of problem
Clarify the regional issues associated with the problem.
Discuss regional strategies and possible solutions to address the problem.
Identify low hanging fruit opportunities to get work done
- Collaborate on integrated regional evacuation plan
- MOU’s between states

Public potential response

Implication of a catastrophic terrorist attack in Washington, DC: Mass evacuation

Will Washington, D.C. metro area residents evacuate following a terrorist attack?

If so, under what scenarios? If so, where might they go? Key Findings

The public’s perceived risk of terror events is high:

Large scale, uncontrolled self-evacuation will occur as a result of a terrorist attack

Mass self-evacuation events are likely to be chaotic:
▪ stated target destinations are highly dispersed
▪ a large proportion of the public state a willingness to leave even absent specific event information

Conclusion

Planning for a large scale, chaotic evacuation into rural areas and states proximate to the DC Metro area warrants serious consideration.

Reported Propensity to Self-Evacuate

Presented with three types of terror incident scenarios, respondents who said they were “very” or “somewhat likely” to leave the area immediately:

Type of Attack “Very” & “Somewhat Likely”
Nuclear 83%
Radiological 76%
Chemical 67%

Distribution of above responses by state: No statistically significant differences between residents of MD, VA, WV

Information Sources on Self-Evacuation Decisions

What would your most important sources of information be in the aftermath of an event?
- 43% - News coverage of event
- 43% - Government announcements

If there were no local news coverage of the event available, would you stay in place?
- 67% - Likely to Stay
- 33% - Likely to Leave

Inference
Given ● the size of the population surrounding the DC area
● the reported propensity to self-evacuate, overwhelmingly by automobile,
● the distribution of target destinations,
● the perceived vulnerability of harm to terror attacks and anticipation of multiple attacks

Result: ● A large-scale, chaotic mass self-evacuation should be anticipated

Likelihood of respondent willingness to adhere to a shelter or evacuation directive – by “very likely” responses:

Type of
Attack: Very likely to shelter in place Very likely to evacuate
Nuclear 60.6% 79.9%
Radiological 65.3% 77.5%
Chemical 65.9% 75.7%

How much confidence do you have that the federal government has adequate evacuation plans in place to deal with a…
A natural disaster event?----a great amount---a moderate amount---very little----no trust at all
-----------------------------6.6%------------36.8%---------------38.2%------18.5%
A terrorist event? ------------7.5%------------36.3%---------------39.1%------17.1%

Summary Observations

The survey data indicate:

Residents in the DC area express a relatively high degree of anticipated vulnerability to terror attacks
Residents express a high propensity to self-evacuate and evacuation destinations are likely to be widely distributed geographically

Absent available local information, a large proportion of area residents are likely to evacuate

Residents also express low confidence in governmental evacuation planning on disaster events

“Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation System Management and Operations – National Capital Region”

Control the Entry Points

- Primary/Secondary routes “Support is there if you stay the course”
- Information feed and flow (Public Radio, ITS, checkpoints)
- KEEP THEM MOVING! Pass-through Movement

Contraflow evacuation
- WVDOT Emergency Operation and Personnel Support

Secondary Routing to Support Emergency Operations
- Private Airstrips
- State Secondary & County Routes

Route Management Issues

Early Warning
Traffic Control
- Choke Points
- Breakdowns
- Accidents
- Flow

Fuel supply
Limited Assets
- Personnel
- Equipment
- Highway Routes
- Capacity

Time of Year/Weather/Terrain