Food for thought: The variable value of our preps.

[Mortblanc]

I am confused with the analysis here.

If your 4 year supply was half used in 3 months then it was not a 4 year supply.

If cold weather will diminish it at 3x the normal rate then the "normal" can not be used as a prep standard.

We prep/plan for the worst case scenerio. If things are "normal" we do not need the preps and the only thing you are doing different from your neighbors is ordering by the 3 month time frame rather than by the one month time frame while a little more than you need is in the bin.

And with solid fuel heat sources interruption of the supply chain and severe weather are the two main factors one preps to meet. I can not see planning around those two things being "normal" during any crisis/strike/disaster/weather disruption.

When I heated with wood I had a one year supply in reserve due to the need for fresh cut wood to cure. I stocked for the worst weather we could have by factoring the capacity of the stove and its burn rate of logs per day. I did not count on the norm with added wood for severe weather, I counted on severe weather with surplus if things were mild, but I never counted on having mild winters as being "normal". That is prepping for failure.