Chances

[grumpy old man]

cryingfreeman
thats my veiws to a point but how do you do things it would be good to have that commie set ?

[Skvez]

The problem with living in a rural village is that it's more likely to be overrun by sheeple fleeing from the cities.
There will be no co-ordinated structure on anything (defence, light discipline, who can have family come and stay etc).

I agree that bugging out to nowhere is a bad idea from day 4 on.
I agree that bugging in an unban setting is a bad idea from day 1 (but probably better than bugging out to nowhere from day 4 on).
I think the western isles would be an ideal retreat location as most sheeple aren't going to find/use a boat to get there.

Realistically very few of us have a group large enough to organise a Rawlesian retreat.

Yes I agree any illnesss in an urban environment adds delay to get to hospital. This is part of the whole city/urban debate. In the city you are more likely to encounter a human related risk (mugging etc) in an urban environment you are more likely to encounter a lack-of-human related risk (break your leg and not be found).
As preppers we tend to believe that the high-human-density related risks outweigh the low-human-density related ones.
There is no such thing as a zero risk environment.

[bigpaul]

i dont agree that rural groups would be over run with sheeple from the cities,i think most sheeple will wait for far too long for the state to come to their aid, by the time they do realise it will be too late and everyone has had the same idea and the roads are chocked with vehicles and turn into giant car parks where fights start and people get stabbed or clouted with a tyre lever. very few if any will make it into the countryside, where they will be greeted with suspicion and loaded shotguns.

[Skvez]

@BigPaul
I think you don't appreciate how small the UK is.
Much of the 'rural' UK is within one or two days walking distance of a big town or city.

[bigpaul]

(1 November 2011, 15:17)Skvez Wrote: @BigPaul
I think you don't appreciate how small the UK is.
Much of the 'rural' UK is within one or two days walking distance of a big town or city.

how far can the AVERAGE person walk in a day, our only 2 cities are 30 & 40 miles away and our area is not the obvious choice? and as i said, most people would be greeted with suspicion and loaded shotguns.

[Skvez]

Congratulations you are further away than the average rural town.
Most people, even unfit people can limp 30 to 40 miles in a few days
And so what if the locals have shotguns and suspicion? Neither will stop the influx of refugees.
Most people are not going to shoot someone for walking up their street, at least not until a total loss of law.

Many people will die in the towns, many more will die in the process of fleeing but if even 5% of the towns make it out to the surrounding countryside it's going to get uncomfortable out there unless you're well off the beaten track.

[bigpaul]

i really cant agree with you, why would your average sheeple head for the countryside? somewhere they have never been nor know anything about, a few, a very low % will head for "mum and dads" or "grannie and grandads", but the majority will stay where they are, in their own house, why should they leave? they will wait for the govt to come and save them, not since the second world war have any British subject been evacuated and even then most of them had to be told to do so. a very few hardy souls MAY venture out onto Dartmoor but will soon perish there of exposure and hunger. your average city dweller will stay in the city and wait to be told what to do by TPTB.

[Skvez]

BigPaul,
Initially most people will sit tight but once rioting and looting break out very badly and once the food and water runs out many people will try and go somewhere else. They will believe any rumour of somewhere having food and water. Maybe they are walking towards another town or city but they will end up in the country doing so.
Some people will sit tight and die but many won't and (as I suggested before) if even 5% of the town/city population head to the hills that a lot for the country to absorb.

[bigpaul]

with our cities being 30 and 40 miles away they'll hit a lot of other places before they get to us, that should whittle your 5% down a bit!!

[cryingfreeman]

I don't believe the cities will disgorge their populations and set off "golden horde" swarms roaming the countryside. Smaller bands at the top of the food pile - weeks or even months after a major grid-down crisis begins - would be more likely, but not in the numbers suggested by mainstream American survivalist thought. If you consider Argentina during the 2001 crisis, people migrated the other way, i.e., the rural population fled to the cities looking for work, emergency aid, crime opportunities (i.e. burglary and looting), etc. That gives those survivalists based in the countryside, especially in my favoured region (NW Scotland), time to get their community organised in case any raiders do make it there.