Getting Real About Bugging Out

[bigpaul]

(16 September 2013, 15:06)John Wrote:

(16 September 2013, 14:00)bigpaul Wrote:

(16 September 2013, 13:40)John Wrote: They are not all going to be preppers and once the home can no longer support them then they will leave. Majority of homes today depend on mains water and electric. Plus many do not even have open fireplaces, places are no longer built with them. So no heat and no water.
This will escalate quickly particularly once it it dawns on them that no one is coming to their rescue.

OK you don't have to agree with me but if you think they are going to be nice people and stay at home then you are mistaken. They may start going house to house to start with but as they work their way out they will at some point come across you, then the fun will start and there will be more of them that you. The other thing that may be more telling is water. It will not be pure and they will be looking for that. Then on the heals of that will come disease. That will make people run to get away from it.

I don't really think people think through these scenarios to the full.
May it is denial, may be they just cannot believe that a society like ours is today can go crash.
Fact...History shows that all that previous societies/civilizations have generally lasted no longer than 200/250 yeas or there about. May be we are a bit overdue but rest assured it will happen.

I don't see people leaving their homes, at least not at first, John. why should they-"the govt is coming to save them"-right? so it will take them some time to realise that no help is coming, a lot will perish waiting for help that isn't coming. many will wait too long until the move out in search of more suitable shelter, it wont take long for the supermarket shelves to empty, what isn't taken will be trampled underfoot. whilst the idiots and scum are looting plasma tvs and new computers they will never use none will have the sense to grab camping stoves or torches or even candles and matches. when they eventually decide to move on the roads will be blocked by crashed and fire damaged vehicles. even if they get past this lot without having a definite location to get to most will just become refugees, most of these without adequate clothing, food and shelter will die in the first cold weather of the first winter post collapse. there will be the enevitable council estate scum(what NR refers to as Chavs) which eventually we will have to deal with but by the time they vacate the cities and move out into the countryside...in my case they will have to navigate Dartmoor first....maybe they will be fewer in number??

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I cant see anyone in my small town welcoming them with open arms...more the opposite.

Well seeing as you have such a low opinion of your fellow man I'll withdraw from this debate and let you have the last word????

suit yourself, makes no difference to me!

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its not so much a "low opinion of your fellow man" more of a case of knowing how stupid people/sheeple are, most of them cant see past the next episode of eastenders or big brother or come dancing, most exist on tv dinners and couldn't cook a meal from scratch if you gave them the ingredients-free. I am a REALIST I know most people rely on the state from cradle to grave and cannot think for themselves.

[Timelord]

That does not stop them being dangerous or banding together! Also it is quite possible many will be on the move through no choice of their own. The scenario could dictate this!! I know you live in a quiet area BP and that you don't think you will be threatened by mass movement of population or much else - I have read it in your posts on this forum over and over again, whenever anyone puts up a thread involving these issues. It would be nice to see how other preppers would relate to the scenarios without it being directed to one personal scenario over the otherside of Dartmoor every single time. Otherwise the forum becomes bland and repetitive and no new inspiration can develop.
What do the three smilies at the end of the last post represent? is it smugness?

Jonas, there is one point that needs revising in the general narrative. That is about fuel consumption being linear from low to higher speeds and so lower speeds give better mpg. While this wording is contradictory in itself, the concept is also quite wrong. Mpg is not linear! There are a number of factors which affect the result. Some of those are wind resistance and gearing. Wind resistance increases exponentially, especially from around 55mph upwards. That is why the USA speed limits were set at that in the fuel crisis of the 1970's. Also the vehicle speed has a relation to the gearing it is using. Low speeds use lower gears, which are not fuel efficient and so travelling at 20 mph will give far worse mpg over a fixed distance than the same journey at 50 mph and using the appropriate gearing. There are other factors but what matters to us is how this relates to bugging out as in the post you put up. Well we have ruled out travelling at speed due to the possible hazards this entails. Therefore if travelling slowly, then the gearing will be low and the corresponding fuel use will be high. Add on to this detours, which may be considerable so that the fuel requirement and time taken becomes a major consideration. Regards, TL.

[River Song]

A fascinating debate. Leaving aside the thing about Devon, in this case I think BP was correct.

It is clear to me that due to demographics etc, that people in the UK will not generally 'bug-out'.
They will stay put and wait for the government etc. Yes, the general low life will take advantage, riot and loot
which will make life difficult.

What happens when the food runs out and it gets difficult? Preppers hopefully will have stored 6 months - 1 year and should be able to hunker down. For the general population, when push comes to shove and they realise that no-one is coming, they will probably extend themselves a mile or two to grab what they can for surivival. But they will return to the nest and their family.

What happens when 2 or 3 miles isn't enough? They make group together for longer trips, loot, pillage, etc and then return or they may bug-out. I don't actually see groups of people bugging out. It is more likely to be families and that brings further problems..

Bugging out exposes one to far greater risk that hunkering down. Personally, and I repeat, personally, I would rather stay put and defend if necessary. I don't think my family would survive outside for too long.

Without re-opening a stale debate please, if I was to weigh up the odds, an end of the world scenario is less likely than a longish term civil emergency (say 6 - 9 months). Planning for 1 week is silly but for those who haven't even started, its where to start.
1 week then 1 month then 3 months then 6 mionths then 9 months then 1 year.

Allons-y

[bigpaul]

apologies to all, but I tend to think of scenarios as to how it affects me and mine-not in a general sense-dosent everyone?? RS is right, I see people going out on scavenging hunts but returning to their homes afterwards, going further and further afield as supplies dwindle, I don't see many people actually bugging out and if they did, without a specific place to go to don't they just become refugee's? to be picked off at will by any lowlife that about? bugging out may be ok for single young people, but families? especially ones with young children or disabled oldies? cant see them getting very far!

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I would say TL at least I have an opinion on these subjects, i'm noticing we are getting fewer and fewer replies to every thread,and when we do its always the same people, seems we have more lurkers than doers!

[River Song]

Maybe they are too busy prepping than getting involved on the forum :-)

[bigpaul]

there is always a certain amount of lurkers on any forum, no matter what the subject matter who never take any part in the discussion on the various sites, its a well known fact.

[Midnitemo]

i'd like to be a lurker but i can't get my questions answered if i don't speak up

[bigpaul]

(17 September 2013, 14:05)Midnitemo Wrote: i'd like to be a lurker but i can't get my questions answered if i don't speak up

the only silly question is the one you DONT ask!

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there was something Northern Raider said a long ,long time ago, which stuck with me and that was, assume when your bugging out its WET,COLD, NIGHT TIME and WINTER!!

[John]

(17 September 2013, 09:12)bigpaul Wrote: there is always a certain amount of lurkers on any forum, no matter what the subject matter who never take any part in the discussion on the various sites, its a well known fact.

May be because they can't get a word in edgeways

[bigpaul]

(17 September 2013, 14:35)John Wrote:

(17 September 2013, 09:12)bigpaul Wrote: there is always a certain amount of lurkers on any forum, no matter what the subject matter who never take any part in the discussion on the various sites, its a well known fact.

May be because they can't get a word in edgeways

your a fine one to talk...I wish everyone could see your hand going up!