rural population

[Midnitemo]

a weeks gentle amble from Reading/maidenhead/high wycombe/slough/windsor et al the fitter ones could be there in 4 day's and most of the home counties lay well outside the M25 all the places mentioned do.

[Highlander]

We live in a small crofting settlement of 7 houses,...... our nearest large town is an hour west of us with a population of just over 9,000,.... to the east four miles away we have a village of 300 people, and 28 miles beyond that another village of 150 people.

This part of Argyll is called Lochaber, it covers an area of 4,468 sq miles, which works out at 4.6 persons per square mile,.... the entire area only has a population of 19,620 people,... A lot of people come here to retire, so we have an aging population, the deer out number the people by a heck of a lot

[GrannyMike]

(26 September 2013, 13:10)bigpaul Wrote: that's a lot of people!! my nearest town is 8 miles away and has a population of 5,000.

near village a mile away 300 nearest town 4 miles away market town 23000 nearest city Exeter 20 miles

[BDG]

I would not worry about massive influxes of people for at least a few weeks before an event. Sure there will be some switched on people who have plans, but the vast majority of the population would wait it out, by the time comes that it seems prudent to move, they will be travelling on foot.

On the way to where ever they will be going (which will not be more than a couple of hundred feet from a road or metalled pathway, they will be killing each other, attacking people who will defend themselves, turning into battles and so on.

Factor in they are already hungry, thirsty, unclean, blistered feet, unwell from drinking dirty water, chafed in areas that will not help walking... you are going to be looking at a lot of die off.

Enough I would say so the likes of HL may not see many people at all.

If people did take to their cars, roads would jam, their would be a crash and a fire, those that were not killed or injured would lose all they own in their cars. Imaging a large fire on a motorway around a conurbation with no emergency services - it would not be long before those left in the conurbation started trying to get out at the other end, creating a massive movement on people in an urban environment where their only care was their survival, creating another bloodbath.

[CharlesHarris]

My neighbor is a retired cop from Southern California, Los Angeles Sheriff's Dept. He says that roving criminal hordes are unlikely tol exit their familiar urban environment to invade your rural home. Criminals by nature are lazy and won’t leave their familiar turf for the unknown. If they have an operational vehicle it will be low on fuel, because they will burn up what is in the tank cruising for all night liquor, drug stores, convenience or small (unguarded) Mom & Pop grocery stores just like they did before the event until the gas is gone. Walking or biking to save fuel isn’t in their mindset. No gas means generally no travel for this group, with a few very rare exceptions.

It is also unlikely to see large needy hungry hordes wandering out from town. When local resources (read: booze and junk food), and aid from the government is exhausted they will do nothing, but sit in the government shelter and whine. Any burning and looting that starts soon upon onset of an event will surge until there is nothing left to burn or steal. When food and clean bedding run out these people will not walk out of town, because they are uncomfortable outdoors and away from other people.

The government-dependent underclass have rarely walked any distance for any reason and are unlikely to start now. They are predisposed to wait for “rescue” and will stay in town. Without gas to drive or the will to walk you won't see many very urban wanderers coming to your rural community if it is more than 100 km from any major city. Most of them will only to head for another urban area only when it is rumored to have free handouts being trucked there by the National Guard or Red Cross. Expect roads to be impassible until the "bad guys" have finished consuming all the resources along the way, (gas, booze and food).

[Grumpy Grandpa]

Thanks Charles - now we know where you live, we're all bugging out to your place. Hope you've got enough stored for all of us!!

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(26 September 2013, 20:05)Highlander Wrote: This part of Argyll is called Lochaber

Lochaber is my ancestral home, grandpappy moved from there for work in the shipyards on the Clyde. If only I could make the move in reverse...

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(26 September 2013, 21:13)BDG Wrote: Enough I would say so the likes of HL may not see many people at all.

No, HL may not see many of those struggling to survive but where my family lives, on the North Ayrshire coast, has a reputation of being a 'better off' location, warranted - perhaps in the cases of many of the residents. It's a small resort town of about 15,000 to which traditionally, people retire and is also a place remembered by many in the cities of Glasgow and Paisley as the place they went on summer holidays 'doon the watter' and is only around 30 miles distant, as the crow flies. Many from those cities, who don't have what they need to survive, to feed their families, will come looking for it here. It's my greatest fear really - that and having a sodding great nuclear generating station just a few miles away!

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(26 September 2013, 21:41)CharlesHarris Wrote: ...roving criminal hordes are unlikely tol exit their familiar urban environment to invade your rural home... ...No gas means generally no travel for this group, with a few very rare exceptions.

I would have thought it not unreasonable for the criminal element, the gangs, to be among those who are most organised, taking what what they need by force of arms. Might it not be a mistake to believe that criminal = stupid? Might it not be the case that anyone (everyone!), including those criminals, view the rural grass as greener than the urban and make every effort to have some of it?

(26 September 2013, 21:41)CharlesHarris Wrote: It is also unlikely to see large needy hungry hordes wandering out from town... ...because they are uncomfortable outdoors and away from other people.

As for the low life, if the 'hungry hordes' can see that there are no prospects where they are, could this category of population not see that further out may well be better for them? What lengths might a father go to, to feed his children? If you imagine yourself in that father's shoes and consider what lengths you would go to, might it not then be denial to believe they will not come?

(26 September 2013, 21:41)CharlesHarris Wrote: The government-dependent underclass have rarely walked any distance for any reason and are unlikely to start now. They are predisposed to wait for “rescue” and will stay in town.

This last, I'm adding as an afterthought. "Government-dependent underclass." Would that include by chance, veterans relying on their pensions and disability allowances to get by?

[Gizmo]

Another interesting post Charles, keep them coming. It's good to get different viewpoints on subjects similar to this where a lot of assumptions have to be made

(27 September 2013, 03:55)Grumpy Grandpa Wrote:

(26 September 2013, 21:41)CharlesHarris Wrote: The government-dependent underclass have rarely walked any distance for any reason and are unlikely to start now. They are predisposed to wait for “rescue” and will stay in town.

This last, I'm adding as an afterthought. "Government-dependent underclass." Would that include by chance, veterans relying on their pensions and disability allowances to get by?

It seems patently obvious to me that Charles is implying nothing of the sort, he is referring to the workshy and bone idle who by choice have never worked because they find it a whole lot easier to llive life as a parasite

[Grumpy Grandpa]

(27 September 2013, 05:57)Gizmo Wrote: It seems patently obvious to me that Charles is implying nothing of the sort, he is referring to the workshy and bone idle who by choice have never worked because they find it a whole lot easier to llive life as a parasite

Like you, I'm really quite enjoying Charles' posts. Vast amounts of information and thought provoking stuff it is too. Those thoughts led me to raise the question of, in the first two instances, whether categorisation, hoping people will fit into your boxes, might be a mistake.

In the last, of course that was what he meant. As I said, it was an afterthought and it simply gave an example of why such generlisation might have it's faults...

[River Song]

I take your point GG but I was musing about Charles' point though.

I'm only around 5 miles from the nearest urban conurbation. There is quite a bit of country road - albeit 'A' road between them and me. I prep on the basis that they WILL arrive at some stage but I think disorganised or in small clusters and I reckon I can cope with that.

I like to think however that we might strike lucky and they will be too damn lazy to walk from their own comfort zone.

[Midnitemo]

I'm sure a lot of people will stay put in hope of rescue , but there will be some that don't , the ones who don't will be the clever determined resourceful ones who have a plan(mine in a nutshell would be get to somewhere where they grow food and there are no mobs like wales/exmoor/far north,depends where your start point is) , they may have started out motorised but they will be on foot eventually and travelling at 2 mph you have time to scrutinise everything and they will because of there needs, not going to be millions but it could well be thousands in dribs and drabs. just my thoughts

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i don't think this will be an issue for me because i'm suburban...i've got different bad issues of my own to deal with and most of the people on the move will avoid population centres if they know whats good for them.